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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

Really disappointed with the high over the Xmas period not sitting up and falling down to Europe ?‍♂️ It hasn’t done enough ABS training with Le Plank!

 

D0A95073-690F-402E-A003-8830DBB1E3CA.gif

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

While I imagine things will keep changing, the one aspect about the models that stands out is, there would be a fair deal of dry weather around. This especially true for Southern areas of the U.K., but even Northern areas could see some drier weather at times with High Pressure quite dominant over and to the South/South-East of the U.K. 

Nothing super duper exciting. Plus, Southern areas would benefit the most from the High Pressure setup, but when it comes to Winter weather, drier weather still personally beats having lots of rainy weather. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Changes on the extended eps ..... I did say the output was unerringly consisten! 

Awaiting full hemispheric view but perhaps the eps are picking up on the slowing zonal winds or perhaps this suite is dodgy 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Changes on the extended eps ..... I did say the output was unerringly consisten! 

Awaiting full hemispheric view but perhaps the eps are picking up on the slowing zonal winds or perhaps this suite is dodgy 

I just commented on it on the other thread..

Definite signs of energy into Iberia ...( from the east i guess).

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Changes on the extended eps ..... I did say the output was unerringly consisten! 

Awaiting full hemispheric view but perhaps the eps are picking up on the slowing zonal winds or perhaps this suite is dodgy 

In a good way or bad way!

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Sounds interesting BA - and I do expect to see some more sudden developments than usual in the coming days, even on an ensemble-wide basis, so just maybe...!

For what it's worth, I think there's potential for the high to make it further north and west at +192 than the ECM 12z went with.

npsh500.192.png

It's so messy to the W and NW with a whole bunch of shortwave features. This sort of over-complication is, IMO, the greatest weakness of ECM these days. 

npsh500.240.png

Here for day 10 you can see it starting to achieve those polar height rises regardless. That Atlantic trough sure could have behaved more helpfully though. Weird how this model has seemed very grouchy for much of this year; for example I remember being frustrated by it's stubborn reluctance to build the blocking where we wanted it for the summer heatwaves. It was so much more enjoyable to view back when it had a considerable over-amplification tendency in the 7-10 day range . Except for That ECM of course. I can still taste the bile rising in my throat!

I don't think I've ever been more eager to see a year come to an end .

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Changes on the extended eps ..... I did say the output was unerringly consisten! 

Awaiting full hemispheric view but perhaps the eps are picking up on the slowing zonal winds or perhaps this suite is dodgy 

They look as flat as a pancake to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

They dont to me..

Ok maybe not the worst ever, but there cannot be a huge cluster thats decent in there - maybe 10 or 15%, there is a tiny little kink in the isobars.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
7 minutes ago, shaky said:

In a good way or bad way!

Troughing in the west Atlantic drops off and our blocking anomoly loses its intensity and becomes fairly flabby across the Atlantic ... the anomolys in general less intense ....the split flow evident on the previous run late on not so well distributed with a bit more into the northern arm .... can only assume there is a large spread of solutions and the mean is fairly unhelpful .... a change or a blip ?.

without clusters or spreads, it’s not possible to say if good or bad....the direction of travel up till this suite was fairly clear and fitted ok with the ec46 and today’s gefs runs ......to me, this run is flatter and could be a drift towards the Exeter mention of a more mobile period early jan (a potential flushing out of the zonal flow ahead of any reversal downwelling??) 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Is someone flying a drone over thread? Nothing posted for ages.  Gfs showing the high going a little further north.

E61C8E4F-8DD2-430B-87A4-17801C6148AA.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Is someone flying a drone over thread? Nothing posted for ages.  Gfs showing the high going a little further north.

E61C8E4F-8DD2-430B-87A4-17801C6148AA.png

There really isnt anything interesting to post at the moment bar the stratosphere situation!!infact if it wasnt for the ssw you be thinking we are heading for one of those 90s style winters block over southern europe and energy going over!!it really is that boring over the next 10 days lol!!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 hours ago, Stuie W said:

Second?? Can we just have the effects of the 1st please!

Yes you can...

Although once a warming takes place and starts the flux..any 2ndary warm will be of almost imediate-..response...left hook..then upper cut 2 the chin!..

Stradling through 'vatious'..i said id post an- Analysis...

Though i'll wait until tmoz...

Tonights..can be very decent..

Although tmoz..will likely be mind blowing!!!...

The shelves are there ...honestly!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Current output is hardly inspiring for cold, snow lovers, but alas we look spared of any heavy rain, gales and therefore floods - and also the dreaded drizzly long fetch silly mild southwesterly. Alas a limpet high setting up shop to the south of us, bringing rather alot of cloud and mild conditions but chance of some frost and fog especially 23-25th in the north - so seasonal at least, before more general murk sets in for Boxing Day and quite probably up until New Year. All very good for getting out and about, we've not had a 'quiet' christmas weatherwise for quite some time, recent years have brought very mixed weather sometimes very wet and stormy think 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, sometimes a bit of snow think 2014 and 2017 just after christmas, and sometimes freezing cold and snowy 2008 (later on), 2009 and 2010. So no weather stories making the headlines. 

So with this in mind - I'm taking a rest from model watching until at least 27th.. and hopefully this time next week we will begin to see the models firm up on a change to colder possibly snowier conditions as we start 2019.

My own hunch is the high will stay to our south through rest of the year, and sink south, with the weak jet riding over the top, bringing some rain and generally mild conditions to start the year, but with colder NW airstream digging into northern parts, then a trigger to very cold and hopefully snowy, and a sudden one at that! (based on strat forecasting predictions). Don't expect the models to show any consistency on a colder theme within the semi reliable i.e. 10 days until end of the year I suspect.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

There really isnt anything interesting to post at the moment bar the stratosphere situation!!infact if it wasnt for the ssw you be thinking we are heading for one of those 90s style winters block over southern europe and energy going over!!it really is that boring over the next 10 days lol!!

It,might be boring looking out of the window for the next 10 days but I don’t think the output will be, complete opposite imo

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, shaky said:

There really isnt anything interesting to post at the moment bar the stratosphere situation!!infact if it wasnt for the ssw you be thinking we are heading for one of those 90s style winters block over southern europe and energy going over!!it really is that boring over the next 10 days lol!!

Just beat me to it. The model output is mind numbingly boring and that's why it is quiet in here. We may have to wait another month before anything exciting happens on the ground so to speak.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Yes you can...

Although once a warming takes place and starts the flux..any 2ndary warm will be of almost imediate-..response...left hook..then upper cut 2 the chin!..

Stradling through 'vatious'..i said id post an- Analysis...

Though i'll wait until tmoz...

Tonights..can be very decent..

Although tmoz..will likely be mind blowing!!!...

The shelves are there ...honestly!!!

With all due respect, you have been saying this for quite a while now lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Just beat me to it. The model output is mind numbingly boring and that's why it is quiet in here. We may have to wait another month before anything exciting happens on the ground so to speak.

My own view, is won't have to wait that long - a couple of weeks tops.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
11 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Is someone flying a drone over thread? Nothing posted for ages.  Gfs showing the high going a little further north.

E61C8E4F-8DD2-430B-87A4-17801C6148AA.png

LOL!! I think it’s been a long week & everyones enjoying a Friday night of drinks before the serious business starts next week ? it’s gonna take stamina 

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