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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If he was, the chart would look like this.

Composite Plot

Now that was awesome, something I will always remember. Had to leave my car and walk to work, went back 4 hours latter and couldn’t find it as it was buried in a ten foot drift.

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Very nice! 

Capture.thumb.PNG.bd1c6b05c8532bc8bdab60b9a1303985.PNG

In fact better warming in the Atlantic also this time exactly what we wan't to get the split!

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, evans1892 said:

I've no complaints at +288 para

Strat is well and truly split. 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
48 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

That was never the case. We had the same claims early this year that the cold was being put further and further back, which wasn’t true. Pretty irritating.

  • UK Outlook for Wednesday 26 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 9 Jan 2019:

The end of 2018 is likely to remain fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year. However, as we head into the New Year, there is the chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather, but also an increasing chance of some snow showers and nighttime frosts.

Never say 'never', Matt...? Unless I'm mistaken, this was the mention of snow (early January?) that sent members' expectations into near-Earth orbit? Blown out of context, I know - but that's the Internet for you...?:santa-emoji:

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

If someone just opens that EC door then all hell is let loose...

ECH0-216.png

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
  • UK Outlook for Wednesday 26 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 9 Jan 2019:

The end of 2018 is likely to remain fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year. However, as we head into the New Year, there is the chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather, but also an increasing chance of some snow showers and nighttime frosts.

Never say 'never', Matt...? Unless I'm mistaken, this was the mention of snow (early January?) that sent members' expectations into near-Earth orbit? Blown out of context, I know - but that's the Internet for you...?

Still looks like high pressure will be in charge early January. May just take a little longer to drift north and allow an undercut.

In any case, that is not around or before Christmas like some are claiming.

As with regards to the models, still the GFSP with a split in the warming and still the GFS without. You’d think the GFSP would be more accurate given that it is the upgraded GFS but does anyone know if it is verifying better?

Edited by MattStoke
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

PARA @300 hrs-

gfsnh-10-300.png?12

I didn't think it would beat this mornings but it has(well,,,forecasted),Canadian segment further west too.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I hear a train 'comin, it's comin' round the bend...It must be the Polar Express - and Southern Trains have bought the franchise! Right, Sydney??️

Netweather GFS Image

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)

The EC is getting there, once we get to new year, the charts are either going to be epic or another chase, has to be the former.

ECH0-240.png

 

EDIT: 500hpa

 

ECH1-240.png

Edited by Stuie W
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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
3 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

gfsnh-1-348.png

Same theme as the EC, maybe not quite as progressive but end result of the EC would hopefully start to plunge the cold in. Starting to get exciting for sure.

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GeordieX9v Aficionado

GeordieX9v

Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Same theme as the EC, maybe not quite as progressive but end result of the EC would hopefully start to plunge the cold in. Starting to get exciting for sure.

Certainly exciting!!

372.png

str.png

Edited by evans1892
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

Certainly exciting!!

372.png

str.png

Amazing strat profile with signs of that second SSW

Edited by Ali1977
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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Amazing strat profile with signs of that second SSW

Second?? Can we just have the effects of the 1st please!

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

It wont be a second anyway, it will just be a reinforcement of the first, unless the zonal winds go back positive for (10 days i think), then its not classified as a separate SSW.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

I don't trust CMC strat anyhow

You dont have to, its not just the CMC

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
24 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

I don't trust CMC strat anyhow

In the old days, cmc strat was informative .....one of the few model outputs showing decent  10hpa output ... no idea now ......

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