Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[bluearmy]

Extended eps beginning to drift towards a potential scandi ridge beyond two weeks and the Russian trough is looking like it would retrogress under - timing fits in with Exeter’s thoughts re a possible easterly ..... ec 46 due out at 10pm and going to be interesting to see if that fits what glosea must be showing (which must be that possible easterly flow)

[bobbydog]

34 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Probably due to me not completely understanding the potential but I`m getting pretty tired of hearing about SSW/charts of SSW in this thread. There is a thread for that.

Sorry not being grumpy but if we are talking about the models then unless someone shows the effect combined with a model chart then it`s a hard watch in here.

To be fair though mate, it's very difficult to provide a trop chart to back up a strat chart. There is usually a delay of around 2 weeks before we see the effects of an SSW. As the longest range we can see ahead in the freely available models is 2 weeks, we can only speculate and watch for signs. We can't just ignore an SSW as this is the type of event we watch for and hope for. Also it will have a huge effect on the model output eventually. Again, also to be fair, this IS a model chart -

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps beginning to drift towards a potential scandi ridge beyond two weeks and the Russian trough is looking like it would retrogress under - timing fits in with Exeter’s thoughts re a possible easterly ..... ec 46 due out at 10pm and going to be interesting to see if that fits what glosea must be showing (which must be that possible easterly flow)

Sounds good Blue-

Not up to date with MJO forecasts or other telecommunications -(miss Tamaras input badly)..

 

[Stuie]

Well good to see the ECM op was a mild outlier.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Well good to see the ECM op was a mild outlier.

probably to do with the high- more members will have it a bit further north i would imagine..

[Stuie]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

probably to do with the high- more members will have it a bit further north i would imagine..

Or differently aligned

[Mike Poole]

To the point about posting strat model charts in here, I would say this.  Since Dec 2010 - 8 years ago - in my location I can only recall 1 significant snow event that was in no way related to events in the stratosphere, that was Dec 2017, and that was marginal, 7 miles south it was rain. 

I don't know of it's related to warming in general, don't want to get into that discussion, but at the moment an SSW seems to significantly increase the chances of snow over really small chances the rest of the time. So it is right that these issues, and the relevant model output, are discussed.

Edited December 17, 2018 by Paul

[Frosty.]

Hope the models improve soon, can't see anything wintry at all up to and including christmas with changeable / unsettled atlantic weather and temps either close to average or just above..and the thought of high pressure building from the south is dismal as we approach the new year..sorry but i'm far from inspired by the latest output..still hoping / dreaming of a cold January.

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, ... said:

 

That's very detailed.  Hopefully the retrogression isn't as fast as it was in March.  A more stationary pattern would be nice.

 

A long long way from anything like that .... we may have caught sight of the bridge but the water hasn’t been located yet 

[Guest]

Bloody hell the petty squabbling in here today is probably the worst ive ever seen during winter months.. come on guys and girls lets stop it, yes we are all here to hunt cold and snaw but there is a real world outside with real dung happening affecting real people and yet here we are with you lot all going on at each other like a flake of snaw or not is the be all and end all of days. get a grip.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well it's the 17th December, a week before Christmas, and where do things stand in model world?

Well unfortunately we seem to have taken a few steps back from only a few days ago. We're about to see a significant warming of the stratosphere but unfortunately what once looked like a split event, now looks like it may only be a displacement. The GFS para was looking good up until yesterday but now even that has gone backwards- we can only see temperatures here but you get the gist-

GFS operational is similar-

It's not bad as far as displacements go, but without a follow up wave 2 warming, the vortex would regroup.

So, what is the upshot?

Well I've always been very clear that the seasonal models showing HLB for the core of winter were, in my opinion, factoring a split SSW event. Without this, I fail to see how we have the ability to pull a prolonged cold outbreak out of the bag. I am not precluding a cold spell sometime early to mid January however, seeing as the displacement could open the door for us (however fleetingly).

I have a nagging feeling, something in the back of my mind, that the much maligned CFS could have nailed this winter season- in as much as it has consistently plumped for a mixed winter period with a sustained blocking signal towards February and March...

Something that Interitus said in the strat thread yesterday resonated with me with regards to it possibly being February when we see another chance to take the SPV down completely- that would totally tally with the CFS prognosis. 

I don't think we should be too downbeat at present but the modelling is drifting away from what I wanted to see continue as we headed towards Christmas and we should be aware that the much talked about early to mid Jan cold spell may not transpire in any meaningful way. 

Onwards and upwards!

 

 

 

[DanBaynes]

5 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Bloody hell the petty squabbling in here today is probably the worst ive ever seen during winter months.. come on guys and girls lets stop it, yes we are all here to hunt cold and snaw but there is a real world outside with real dung happening affecting real people and yet here we are with you lot all going on at each other like a flake of snaw or not is the be all and end all of days. get a grip.

More snow I've recently discovered the ignore button, makes the thread a more pleasent read, highly recommended lol

[bobbydog]

6 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Bloody hell the petty squabbling in here today is probably the worst ive ever seen during winter months.. come on guys and girls lets stop it, yes we are all here to hunt cold and snaw but there is a real world outside with real dung happening affecting real people and yet here we are with you lot all going on at each other like a flake of snaw or not is the be all and end all of days. get a grip.

Really?? Today's nothing! You've obviously missed some of the best ones! There's been some proper handbag swinging in here in the past  

[matt111]

9 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Bloody hell the petty squabbling in here today is probably the worst ive ever seen during winter months..

You've seen nothing yet... 

If you learn what's best to read and what to just skip through it makes this thread a good read though. 

Edited December 17, 2018 by matt111

[Guest]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

Really?? Today's nothing! You've obviously missed some of the best ones! There's been some proper handbag swinging in here in the past  

maybe this season then, but today has been poor really.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, matt111 said:

You've seen nothing yet... 

If you learn what's best to read and what to just skip through it makes this thread a good read though. 

i do remember december 2012 when that ECM west boobs up... that was probably the worst to be fair, but today has been a poor show.

[Don]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well it's the 17th December, a week before Christmas, and where do things stand in model world?

Well unfortunately we seem to have taken a few steps back from only a few days ago. We're about to see a significant warming of the stratosphere but unfortunately what once looked like a split event, now looks like it may only be a displacement. The GFS para was looking good up until yesterday but now even that has gone backwards- we can only see temperatures here but you get the gist-

GFS operational is similar-

It's not bad as far as displacements go, but without a follow up wave 2 warming, the vortex would regroup.

So, what is the upshot?

Well I've always been very clear that the seasonal models showing HLB for the core of winter were, in my opinion, factoring a split SSW event. Without this, I fail to see how we have the ability to pull a prolonged cold outbreak out of the bag. I am not precluding a cold spell sometime early to mid January however, seeing as the displacement could open the door for us (however fleetingly).

I have a nagging feeling, something in the back of my mind, that the much maligned CFS could have nailed this winter season- in as much as it has consistently plumped for a mixed winter period with a sustained blocking signal towards February and March...

Something that Interitus said in the strat thread yesterday resonated with me with regards to it possibly being February when we see another chance to take the SPV down completely- that would totally tally with the CFS prognosis. 

I don't think we should be too downbeat at present but the modelling is drifting away from what I wanted to see continue as we headed towards Christmas and we should be aware that the much talked about early to mid Jan cold spell may not transpire in any meaningful way. 

Onwards and upwards!

 

 

 

I have that sinking feeling also.  If we get something similar to last winter, that wouldn’t be so bad, but I feel we would be hard pressed to get a similar ‘Beast from the east’ late February.  

[northwestsnow]

Im of the opinion things are looking rosey..

Expecting a decent EC 46 tonight.

[Summer Sun]

The main 3 broadly on the same idea with high pressure not far away for the Christmas period. I can't see anything really mid like some years so in that respect temps shouldn't be too high even if it isn't snowing/bitterly cold it would be as close to seasonal as you could hope for by the UK's standards

[Rocheydub]

Looking for crumbs of comfort?

Well when ECM output varies wildly run by run after 144 like it has been, then you know there is a pattern change coming, and an unusual one. Also, I don't get the despondency on strat charts either, still looking good for wave 1 and 2 attacks. Nothing to be sad about at all. If you ask me, mid Jan is the best time for cold and snow. It still looks all on for that. In my humble opinion

[Stav]

1 hour ago, Stuie W said:

I know the basics but chasing these charts in here isn`t right, it is a strat based subject. We are all chasing cold but as you will well know an SSW does not ensure us being entrenched up to our necks in cold. 

Anyway carry on.

I enjoy reading the SSW musings in here. It would be a pain to always have to switch to another thread to see them.

[Cheshire Freeze]

22 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Bloody hell the petty squabbling in here today is probably the worst ive ever seen during winter months.. come on guys and girls lets stop it, yes we are all here to hunt cold and snaw but there is a real world outside with real dung happening affecting real people and yet here we are with you lot all going on at each other like a flake of snaw or not is the be all and end all of days. get a grip.

At least you've had the privilege of having already seen snaw

[bobbydog]

13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well it's the 17th December, a week before Christmas, and where do things stand in model world?

Well unfortunately we seem to have taken a few steps back from only a few days ago. We're about to see a significant warming of the stratosphere but unfortunately what once looked like a split event, now looks like it may only be a displacement. The GFS para was looking good up until yesterday but now even that has gone backwards- we can only see temperatures here but you get the gist-

GFS operational is similar-

It's not bad as far as displacements go, but without a follow up wave 2 warming, the vortex would regroup.

So, what is the upshot?

Well I've always been very clear that the seasonal models showing HLB for the core of winter were, in my opinion, factoring a split SSW event. Without this, I fail to see how we have the ability to pull a prolonged cold outbreak out of the bag. I am not precluding a cold spell sometime early to mid January however, seeing as the displacement could open the door for us (however fleetingly).

I have a nagging feeling, something in the back of my mind, that the much maligned CFS could have nailed this winter season- in as much as it has consistently plumped for a mixed winter period with a sustained blocking signal towards February and March...

Something that Interitus said in the strat thread yesterday resonated with me with regards to it possibly being February when we see another chance to take the SPV down completely- that would totally tally with the CFS prognosis. 

I don't think we should be too downbeat at present but the modelling is drifting away from what I wanted to see continue as we headed towards Christmas and we should be aware that the much talked about early to mid Jan cold spell may not transpire in any meaningful way. 

Onwards and upwards!

 

 

 

Shut up Aaron! The CFS?? No-one believes in that! Go and write a note to Santa and tell him how sorry you are! 

[Seasonality]

I've noted that yr.no which uses ECM data for its forecasts hasn't updated thus evening after the 12z. Usually a good sign it's a questionable operational run. 

Edited December 17, 2018 by Seasonality

[Devonshire]

15 minutes ago, DanBaynes said:

More snow I've recently discovered the ignore button, makes the thread a more pleasent read, highly recommended lol

I'd recommend it too - I am on page 21 of blocked moaners - that's over 500 ignored in a couple of years!