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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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2 minutes ago, swfc said:

6Z gfs seems to have run with the para in regard to flattening things again at the 120 hr mark? run to run differences hopefully but its there and its early on.

Yup and is if by magic theres your flattening of the high that i mentioned 30 mins ago is gona happen!!horrendous!!ah well always the 12zs!!

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Posted (edited)

As ever i consider many people to be too dispondent in the outlook. Although there is still a residual vortex over Canada on the models there is also an Arctic High on both causing disruption that should eventually amplify said vortex segment... and that assumes we are not seeing too much strength forecast from it now.

We may end up missing the boat but that point in the models has not yet come.

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted (edited)

Big differences by 144 with more heights north.

look at the difference around Greenland 

3F122820-43E3-4A2E-89F2-42C10E9C17E1.png

F98001AA-7548-4901-BC8D-A52A63838D72.png

Edited by Ali1977

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

6z trying to force heights to our NW?

image.thumb.png.1debc509b3f6e1349be5aebdb19f0372.png

yes nw.there seems to be a lot of volatility even in the early stages of the runs atm.it may continue for quite a few days to come imo.

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Not sure what some people are looking at the 6z looks far better, much cleaner doesn’t really matter how amplified the first ridge is that’s never going anywhere anyway. 

0z first, 6z second 

1C5C5450-EAEA-4377-A89C-6CEAF5875DAA.png

F64052F5-9F99-464A-880B-FA04EE9B8B12.png

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3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Not sure what some people are looking at the 6z looks far better, much cleaner doesn’t really matter how amplified the first ridge is that’s never going anywhere anyway. 

0z first, 6z second 

1C5C5450-EAEA-4377-A89C-6CEAF5875DAA.png

F64052F5-9F99-464A-880B-FA04EE9B8B12.png

Yup and knowing our luck the second ridge shall flatten out aswell lol!!give it time weathizard!!first ridge was completely flattened out!!

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Not sure what some people are looking at the 6z looks far better, much cleaner doesn’t really matter how amplified the first ridge is that’s never going anywhere anyway. 

0z first, 6z second 

1C5C5450-EAEA-4377-A89C-6CEAF5875DAA.png

F64052F5-9F99-464A-880B-FA04EE9B8B12.png

I was commenting on the quick and subtle changes early on not the potential of the run.look at the low going threw Scandinavia on the 6z and compare to the oz.early changes cause the effect but they are there

Edited by swfc
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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yup and knowing our luck the second ridge shall flatten out aswell lol!!give it time weathizard!!first ridge was completely flattened out!!

Yes but it’s 6 days out!! Things can change  and change quickly if your looking that far out

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All I can see is that lobe of P/V moving over towards the Finland side , Which is what we need if were gonna get a Split.

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Posted (edited)

Things are getting very complicated out in the Atlantic sector, for now UK high domination looks the favourite it must be said. It seems no matter what the pattern the core of the heights seems to slip back over us. Which to me makes the METO outlook even more odd they seem to make W’lies favourite, I just cannot see a prolonged period happening.

Edited by Weathizard
Wrong chart*

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Cymro said:

I wouldn't consider -9 dew points ‘pretty typical’ 

In the Brecon Beacons, it's not unheard of.  I was referring more to the -1C dew point across most of England.

Edited by Evening Star

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Yeah the 6z turns into a bit of a bore fest in the end once again! All roads seem to lead to boredom at the moment 😂

With such differences at day 5 though and the SSW in play im taking everything with a large spoonful of salt.

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Yeah the 6z turns into a bit of a bore fest in the end once again! All roads seem to lead to boredom at the moment 😂

With such differences at day 5 though and the SSW in play im taking everything with a large spoonful of salt.

The interest is 300hrs and even further into FI, SSW wise anyway 

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With little consistency from run to run for area of the world I think it is perhaps better look at the pv profile for trends and the high over the pole is there consistently and now upto 1045. That’s a good theme and not the norm. 

E1AFB995-554D-4C22-976D-8B066D54BB02.png

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6Z looks more promising to me.. certainly longer term looks loaded with potential..

image.thumb.png.47b7b1fecfd2ce70c156196b98898edd.png

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Timing is far from clear, but it makes some sense for a brief westerly the north-westerly interlude to occur somewhere within the period 10th-14th Jan as the vortex split initially places a residual over the western N. Atlantic, and the MJO P7 + surging AAM influences won't yet have propagated across. 

npsh500.png 

Those first become evident as strong ridges into the Arctic from Alaska. This sets in motion a chain of events that drives a more negative NAO pattern. Meanwhile, lagged effects from the MJO P5-P6 crossing serve to increase the stratospheric split in the lower and mid-levels, moving the 'western' segment away from the N. Atlantic and across N. America.

npsh500.png npst30.png

GFS has been struggling as usual to sufficiently weaken the westerly flow out of N. America but the 06z has managed to have a good go at it.

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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6Z looks more promising to me.. certainly longer term looks loaded with potential..

image.thumb.png.47b7b1fecfd2ce70c156196b98898edd.png

So much cold air surrounding us, when (if) the change comes we could very quickly go into the freezer - rather than have to wait a few days whilst we drag cold air in which often wastes a few days a good wind direction vs actual snow etc...

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Output overnight is a little soul destroying at this stage. There is little sign of the type of northerly latitude blocking we are going to need and retrogression of our high pressure to the northwest is inhibited by the northern arm of the jet consistently.

We are depending on some dramatic signal suddenly being picked up on the models in the next few days.

I don't think many of us are expecting much to change in the outlook in the near term.

Hopefully in the medium term we might get some joy from the recent SSW event but even then there is not guaranteed to be a reaction in our favor or any reaction at all for that matter.

Still, fingers crossed.

 

 

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Yabadabadooooo! I like this evolution best of all - sub-20 uppers in Scandinavia? What could possibly go wrong!

image.thumb.png.2bd475f31610e59fd9b103ee3a1d5028.png

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25 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Things are getting very complicated out in the Atlantic sector, for now UK high domination looks the favourite it must be said. It seems no matter what the pattern the core of the heights seems to slip back over us. Which to me makes the METO outlook even more odd they seem to make W’lies favourite, I just cannot see a prolonged period happening.

I think a period of westerlies is almost inevitable its just a matter of whether its sooner or later. Although largely rubbish the CFS run yesterday illustrated a worst case scenario where the UK high just sat there until Feb and then we went westerly anyway. I reckon it will be short lived westerly spell though so lets get it done IMHO. GFS 06Z looks very plausible to me with quick amplification thereafter and a northerly incoming.

These circular mid lat highs rarely deliver so best we are rid of it. 

 

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1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

Output overnight is a little soul destroying at this stage. There is little sign of the type of northerly latitude blocking we are going to need and retrogression of our high pressure to the northwest is inhibited by the northern arm of the jet consistently.

We are depending on some dramatic signal suddenly being picked up on the models in the next few days.

I don't think many of us are expecting much to change in the outlook in the near term.

Hopefully in the medium term we might get some joy from the recent SSW event but even then there is not guaranteed to be a reaction in our favor or any reaction at all for that matter.

Still, fingers crossed.

 

 

Thats a very fair post Eagle and pretty much sums up my thoughts if honest..

The low heights to the NW have been relentless so far, until we lose them we are in no-mans land..

6Z shows the way out of the pattern nicely as we finally see a relaxation of the systems running across the pond towards mid month..

 

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats a very fair post Eagle and pretty much sums up my thoughts if honest..

The low heights to the NW have been relentless so far, until we lose them we are in no-mans land..

6Z shows the way out of the pattern nicely as we finally see a relaxation of the systems running across the pond towards mid month..

 

I am not feeling optimistic at the moment especially after reading some posts in the stratosphere thread saying that the split is not looking favourable for the UK. Too much residual energy in the Atlantic. 

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