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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Very positive...Now, let's see how this arvo's Para compares with this mornings??

image.thumb.png.85cdaeba99dfcb47326a307a513d7bb9.png

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Well that was exciting !

Lets not book the mariachi band just yet but an improvement on the earlier GFS run.

Whether this is a response to the SSW or the MJO or a combination of both doesn’t really matter as long as we see some changes upstream .

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9 minutes ago, lamppost watcher said:

Game on at t348. They do say mid Jan is the landing zone

20181229_165327.jpg

The high needs to move about 100 or so miles north. Hope there’s time for it to change😩😩

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First signs of a good response in fi by gfs this evening. I was expecting to see this more Monday to Wednesday think this could be a first stage response to ssw signals although still expecting the pv to be less organised but a good step in the right direction!

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well that was exciting !

Lets not book the mariachi band just yet but an improvement on the earlier GFS run.

Whether this is a response to the SSW or the MJO or a combination of both doesn’t really matter as long as we see some changes upstream .

Def interesting Op Nick....want to see the gfsp an ensembles showing an game on!

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

People do realize that the digging upstream trough scenario route to cold does involve a trigger shortwave downstream ! OMG !!!

We’ve seen these set ups many times and lived through the trauma !

A word of caution don’t follow the GFS in this type of set up , it struggles badly in these set ups .

😱

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Caution is needed at this stage as the models will change back on some runs but in our favour we have the AO staying neutral heading negative and the strat warming so cold from mid month  posible and snow also possible if we get the right blocking 

Lots going on with the new year

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GEFS are getting much better at day 10, we have lift off I reckon. Some good ones even by then. 

BFCDF369-9E51-4CD6-B0C0-16D4992464E9.png

2676BA3D-8041-4BFE-A62D-08D87F560E9B.png

3AF1BF81-EEE3-4D45-841E-450EACB819A3.png

63E8B0F9-1053-41B2-B114-53D69E7046F8.png

Edited by Ali1977
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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

People do realize that the digging upstream trough scenario route to cold does involve a trigger shortwave downstream ! OMG !!!

We’ve seen these set ups many times and lived through the trauma !

A word of caution don’t follow the GFS in this type of set up , it struggles badly in these set ups .

Nick im so glad you've flagged this.

The gfs is a mess...

We need to stand on format reliabilty here.

And the ec/ecmf..is barreling head over heels here on evolutions.

If someone wants to waste there type-time with model lead-diagram,..thats fine..

But ecm is countering forcing..and prop/pv disolve..

And reconing cold spill...

However as per-my previous posts..

The wedge(Hp) and both trough/placements..ARE BOUND BY NON YET NOTED LAYER RESPONCES!!.

 

although thank god..we should now see the twist!!

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I suspect by mid-January we're going to be talking about the lack of rain at this rate rather than anything particularly wintry. The GFS 12z has rainfall amounts of <10mm for large parts of the UK out to mid-month, with areas in the south east getting just 1 or 2mm.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_384_49.png

After the dry summer and Autumn the lack of rain might start to become an issue if this comes to fruition.

Edited by reef
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Day 12 control worth a mention too 

6591AAEC-4D45-4667-BA30-43755A566119.png

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15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

People do realize that the digging upstream trough scenario route to cold does involve a trigger shortwave downstream ! OMG !!!

We’ve seen these set ups many times and lived through the trauma !

A word of caution don’t follow the GFS in this type of set up , it struggles badly in these set ups .

The reason the scenario normally ends up in an epic fail for the GFS is it normally is last to develop the jet cutback towards the Low Countries .

Effectively what happens in these types of evolutions is the upstream trough elongates and digs south , the response of the limpet high to that is to be pulled further nw , a piece of shortwave energy runs clockwise around that and cuts sw with the jet loop .

This then runs under the high which then ridges towards Scandi . The shortwave helps to develop low heights to the south to support the high and then the cold air floods sw helping to develop your Genoa Low in Northern Italy . That’s the plan anyway !

Funnily enough, that's what the para is doing right now:

gfsnh-0-138.png?12

 

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

People do realize that the digging upstream trough scenario route to cold does involve a trigger shortwave downstream ! OMG !!!

We’ve seen these set ups many times and lived through the trauma !

A word of caution don’t follow the GFS in this type of set up , it struggles badly in these set ups .

Agreed, this is just one run, who cares it’s in 300h+, but God we needed something to happen as it was starting to turn very wearisome, be interesting what the ECM has to offer.

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Just now, reef said:

I suspect by mid-January we're going to be talking about the lack of rain at this rate rather than anything particularly wintry. The GFS 12z has rainfall amounts of <10mm for large parts of the UK out to mid-month, with areas in the south east getting just 1 or 2mm.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_384_49.png

After the dry summer and Autumn the lack of rain might start to become an issue if this comes to fruition.

20 inches of snow will make up the shortfall m8

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1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

Funnily enough, that's what the para is doing right now:

gfsnh-0-138.png?12

 

I think it’s a bit too early to get this before day ten . The shortwave there is too far east and we don’t have enough amplification upstream .

Of course it would be great if things could speed up!

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Gefs Mean slp over the pole at T312 now up to 1030 mb but nothing to see here .... no response to the ssw in sight .........

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Gefs Mean slp over the pole at T312 now up to 1030 mb but nothing to see here .... no response to the ssw in sight .........

Indeed..... In the imortal words of Ian Brown- Zonal reset.

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Any trop-responce-..will deviate then rapidly function via dynamics.

And your note-the pv shunt and syphon...as well as the spillage into mid/lower latts.

We are poised!

Edited by tight isobar
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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gefs Mean slp over the pole at T312 now up to 1030 mb but nothing to see here .... no response to the ssw in sight .........

It was also there this morning at a similar t plus👍

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4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Any trop-responce-..will deviate then rapidly function via dynamics.

And your note-the pv shunt and syphon...as well as the spillage into mid/lower latts.

We are poised!

I've been poised so long now, I'm getting cramp.

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gefs Mean slp over the pole at T312 now up to 1030 mb but nothing to see here .... no response to the ssw in sight .........

This is exactly the kind of developments coldies need to be hearing more of.

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