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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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This morning's ecm control was an undercut. Tonight's gfs para was an undercut. Mmmm! 🙂

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The EC mean is indeed an improvement on this mornings!

BTW, the EC det is literally freezing from 120 onwards with a few -5s dotted around day 8/9..

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Any chance of consistancy from the mods re met office musings in this thread? I got pulled up on one reference this morning where as there are dozens this evening?

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5 minutes ago, Rambo said:

Sorry, but you are COMPLETELY missing the whole point. It has not been "constantly pushed back". The effects of a SSW were possible around New Year onwards, now more likely mid (ish) Jan, thats NOT constantly being pushed back lol. If people want to cry and moan that the weather isnt 100% forecastable weeks in advance, then thats fine, but they shouldnt make things up whilst doing so!!

And anyway, that Meto update (although not relevant to this thread) clearly says first half of Jan, which still isnt completely wrong yet. 

There is however one thing that IS constantly being pushed back, and thats the onslaught of the Atlantic!!

Can’t understand why people keep claiming that the cold was previously forecast for before and then around Christmas when the strat warming was always forecast to occur just after Christmas. Doubt we we’re going to see the effects of strat warming before it had occurred....

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The EC mean is indeed an improvement on this mornings!

BTW, the EC det is literally freezing from 120 onwards with a few -5s dotted around day 8/9..

Is that quite widely or just across england!!how are the day time temps looking for central england🤔!!hopefully some sub zero days!!

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Can’t understand why people keep claiming that the cold was previously forecast for before and then around Christmas when the strat warming was always forecast to occur just after Christmas. Doubt we we’re going to see the effects of strat warming before it had occurred....

To be fair around mid-month the 30 day outlook repeated said it could turn significantly colder before the end of the year

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Is that quite widely or just across england!!how are the day time temps looking for central england🤔!!hopefully some sub zero days!!

Only had a brief look, think there maybe a few ice days fri/sat, and very low temps (-5) at night, generally NW Britain looks coldest but like i said , only had a quick look.

🙂

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1 minute ago, Stonethecrows said:

To be fair around mid-month the 30 day outlook repeated said it could turn significantly colder before the end of the year

Yep. And you dont need a SSW to get cold.

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Pretty sure ‘before the end of the year’ isn’t necessarily before or around Christmas.

Edited by MattStoke
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16 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Can’t understand why people keep claiming that the cold was previously forecast for before and then around Christmas when the strat warming was always forecast to occur just after Christmas. Doubt we we’re going to see the effects of strat warming before it had occurred....

 

24 minutes ago, Rambo said:

Sorry, but you are COMPLETELY missing the whole point. It has not been "constantly pushed back". The effects of a SSW were possible around New Year onwards, now more likely mid (ish) Jan, thats NOT constantly being pushed back lol. If people want to cry and moan that the weather isnt 100% forecastable weeks in advance, then thats fine, but they shouldnt make things up whilst doing so!!

And anyway, that Meto update (although not relevant to this thread) clearly says first half of Jan, which still isnt completely wrong yet. 

There is however one thing that IS constantly being pushed back, and thats the onslaught of the Atlantic!!

I think you guys are confusing things here. Lassie quite rightly said that "Cold" was being forecast and not the "SSW"! And if you go back to the beginning of this thread and to the previous hunt for cold thread, you will quite clearly read that "cold" was indeed being forecast firstly at the end of November, then the beginning of December, then again around Christmas time, and so on and so forth.......

Now the SSW has only been forecast to affect the weather from around the new year onward, and I don't see many disagreeing with that.

Edited by Nizzer
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2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yep. And you dont need a SSW to get cold.

But it sure helps!😉

Anyway, it's a largely benign outlook with lots of high pressure and the current very mild weather not lasting beyond the next few days with temperatures gradually returning closer to average. I keep looking at the models every day for signs of truly wintry weather..no sign yet but I'm still hopeful that at some point in January there will be snow, just need to remain very patient for a good while yet.

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3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yep. And you dont need a SSW to get cold.

I wonder if in fact this might in future become less and less true.  Since I started watching the models in 2011 only one significant snow spell has happened that has had nothing to do with a SSW, Dec 2017.

There are global changes happening, not the thread to speculate on reasons, but the  changes in Arctic sea ice is one, and as per Cohen's theory, I can see more chances of SSWs ahead, coupled with less chance of cold weather without one.  And the nature and effect of SSW events seems highly nuanced, I think the way they impact the trop may change too.  I don't think we can rely on past statistics of how they will affect UK any more.  All bets open, my money on higher probability of mild without SSW, higher probability of cold with SSW.  Models need to get better at handling them though, for sure!

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If you want to see the correction in the Atlantic being pushed back, check out the charts from the normally consistent eps mean anomoly for the last three 12z runs for current day 10 left to right oldest to newest 

 

818445CB-EBA0-4C12-8CA9-2787555FD2BA.thumb.jpeg.d40a20d59ee9e6573f090219531eeb1d.jpeg B85E3450-B8F5-4292-9410-4696BE55EE35.thumb.jpeg.5069a3f3cb26cfdee5e5379984d16904.jpeg25D081EF-AA3F-4BBF-9CAB-E36FA0396CEA.thumb.jpeg.b6b72d47228b30d657e0368c4e334b08.jpeg

Is that last one tonights????

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

But it sure helps!😉

Anyway, it's a largely benign outlook with lots of high pressure and the current very mild weather not lasting beyond the next few days with temperatures gradually returning closer to average. I keep looking at the models every day for signs of truly wintry weather..no sign yet but I'm still hopeful that at some point in January there will be snow, just need to remain very patient for a good while yet.

more like it! unlike after that 06Z GFS, signs of cold possible ice days under high pressure, key is if skies clear around this time, certainly chance of clear skies  arriving from the north

 

ECM1-96.GIF?28-0

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I think today showed what I and some others have been saying.  Nothing is yet nailed in the mid term. When we have this sort of atmospheric disturbance underway, naturally, the charts will be all over the place. New start data being fed in, yesterday’s news is old news.

Hence, in fact exactly why, we still can’t dismiss further corrections in our favour in the coming days.

If the ECM did the same shift again tomorrow, then things are going to look very very good indeed. I’m not saying I think it will happen, just that it could.

We are only 8 days into winter proper, a great time to be looking at these sort of charts roll in. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Nizzer said:

 

I think you guys are confusing things here. Lassie quite rightly said that "Cold" was being forecast and not the "SSW"! And if you go back to the beginning of this thread and to the previous hunt for cold thread, you will quite clearly read that "cold" was indeed being forecast firstly at the end of November, then the beginning of December, then again around Christmas time, and so on and so forth.......

Now the SSW has only been forecast to affect the weather from around the new year onward, and I don't see many disagreeing with that.

There was never any real weight behind those earlier cold spells. No model output or postings from the experts to suggest significant cold. Only brief chilly conditions, which we had. The significant cold was always predicted to be January at the earliest, with the Met Office outlook only suggesting a small chance of it arriving it earlier at the end of December.

 

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5 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I think today showed what I and some others have been saying.  Nothing is yet nailed in the mid term. When we have this sort of atmospheric disturbance underway, naturally, the charts will be all over the place. New start data being fed in, yesterday’s news is old news.

Hence, in fact exactly why, we still can’t dismiss further corrections in our favour in the coming days.

If the ECM did the same shift again tomorrow, then things are going to look very very good indeed. I’m not saying I think it will happen, just that it could.

We are only 8 days into winter proper, a great time to be looking at these sort of charts roll in. 

 

Were leading into Jan...28 days but really 45 by time we see cold. If we do see real cold.

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

There was never any real weight behind those earlier cold spells. No model output or postings from the experts to suggest significant cold. Only brief chilly conditions, which we had. The significant cold was always predicted to be January at the earliest, with the Met Office outlook only suggesting a small chance of it arriving it earlier at the end of December.

 

Well said. Jan 7ish has always been the time given when the SSW may start fingers crossed 

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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

There was never any real weight behind those earlier cold spells. No model output or postings from the experts to suggest significant cold. Only brief chilly conditions, which we had. The significant cold was always predicted to be January at the earliest, with the Met Office outlook only suggesting a small chance of it arriving it earlier at the end of December.

 

Don't make me go through the last two threads to pull out quotes, because there are so many, and I really can't be arsed. But I'll point you here to a time long ago (Nov 18th) and you will see there were plenty of charts showing cold. And quite a few within 144 hours: 

Now I can't quite comment on what the experts were expecting (Depends on who you mean by experts), but there were plenty of posters on here talking about cold spells, (not just chilly conditions) over the period from late November onward.

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1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Were leading into Jan...28 days but really 45 by time we see cold. If we do see real cold.

8 days for astronomical winter. March this year shows why that should be used for ‘winter’, not the meteorological winter version. Far more cold Marches than Decembers.

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Just now, s4lancia said:

8 days for astronomical winter. March this year shows why that should be used for ‘winter’, not the meteorological winter version. Far more cold Marches than Decembers.

March temperatures can get into the 20s. It's a spring month. Day length is on par with late September too.

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