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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - cold, summer - not hot
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands

All we need now is for the ECM to follow up with something similar to the GFS para.  If it does we might finally have lift-off.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

One can sense the anticipation waiting for the ECM.

Almost as exciting as waiting for the Eurovision Song Contest results ! 

LOL was going to post something similar but nothing is as exciting as awaiting the Eurovision song contest results.

That GFSp run is the first in a long time from GFS that has any real resistance to the FI Atlantic onslaught so let's hope ECM doesn't fluff its lines and we have some "exciting" output in the run up to the New Year.

 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
34 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Time for the gfs para to prove itself - and what better way to do that with a chart like this at 168hrs. I am hoping to see similar on tonight's ecm

gfsnh-0-168.png

Don't hold your breath pal,it's gfs and poor after all!! amazing on here tbh 

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

No sugar coating how poor the models are. The brief ridging attempt in around 5 to 7 days will fail then we're off in search of a response to the SSW in far FI.

 

 

I think there as been some  improvements today all about trends.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Don't hold your breath pal,it's gFS after all!!

Good to see though, a breath of fresh air after all these filthy charts that we have had to endure, something must be up. Can ECM join the FV3 party I wonder?:oldrolleyes:

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, snowray said:

Good to see though, a breath of fresh air after all these filthy charts that we have had to endure, something must be up. Can ECM join the FV3 party I wonder?if

If you have selective memory it's fine.the ukmo ete are great,crash and then it's the gFS para ?I'd hold on while next week tbh see what happens

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia (Maribor)
  • Location: Slovenia (Maribor)

There is quite a difference if we compare the yesteday ECMWF 12z (main) run to the one we have today at 96h. The high pressure is moved a little bit more to the NW near Iceland.

ECH1-120.GIF.thumb.png.5a8f1297c0d0373130e72e26b667ff4a.png 

 

ECH1-96.GIF.png

Edited by Redbull165
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Look at these posts for the FV3...

Why- because its resolved the strat correctly in terms of creating a proper decent equidistance between the 2 lobes of vortex, but also it will have correctly propergated the wave downwards ( delivering a net -VE NAM index )

I have seen post after on here & twitter regarding the likleyhood of a non propergating wave, however all the model data used to back this up is the GFS ensemble suite- there in lies the problem as we have a very poorly resolving model for the strat dictating peoples forecasts & expectations.

Its a pity we dont get an ensemble mean for the EPS propergation in terms of NAM index 

5EDF5708-72F5-4D5B-A2F2-0DF2069E1D1C.thumb.jpeg.a03e5c85d9b059386beb759f58959786.jpeg

**** So, this important ****

If you are looking at the GFS ensembles for the fabled tropical response then until it resolves the strat propergation correctly it will be be a swathe of purple over the pole.

Come back in a few days....

Steve you should be a politician pal honestly.your weather knowledge is undoubted but you would give Boris Johnson a ten break mate.x

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Smell the coffee? The people in the east can almost smell the thin crisp air.

519A0CA4-5BBB-47AB-BF63-748B912C0781.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Some cold frosty weather on EC this evening..

 

Yes, potential for some hard frosts. Temperatures in mid to low single figures all day too I'd imagine.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Some cold frosty weather on EC this evening..

 

very like 2002, (rip LW252 though) started with -10 minimums, ice days

archives-2002-1-2-0-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ECM 12z very different to yesterdays effort. I think today's is probably more in line with what can be expected.

Yesterday/today

ECH1-192.GIFECH1-168.GIF?28-0

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

+168, so nearly there...

A676919E-0E0F-4E80-861A-79811314CA9C.thumb.png.7a4c1f604c73552d013ef5f50930d9a5.png

As Blue said earlier this afternoon, we may have lift off!  Proper cold to the east of us now as well.  I suspect this run may not get there but the ECM is certainly trending the right way.

image.thumb.png.5497f551660ffa8c48558a8b20a4f7b6.png

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