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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
13 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

why should we believe anything in fl from gfs when it’s been hundreds of miles incorrect just 5 days ahead,as steve and others pointed out.The obsession some have with gfs is tiresome,it’s a very poor model ,the stats back that up too.

 

 

 

ECM on the last 6 days 12z runs for D10 has performed as badly as the GFS, about 50% below its normal average.

368395183_cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX(1).thumb.png.98890d3dc74f26bf31f75016af333150.png

I would not hang your hat on ECM performing any better at that range than the GFS in the current environment.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - cold, summer - not hot
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands
11 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Big Steve Murr’s negotiating model-biases posts are helping myself and others learn how to understand the ins and outs of certain model bias regarding Westwards/Eastwards movements. It is providing me a pathway to a better handle on reading/anticipating charts.

I sense there is a bit of jealousy of Steve’s knowledge/understanding of the Weather on this forum from certain members...not including you Ed as I enjoy yer daily posts and thoughts. 

Anyways let’s all hope we all see snowfall in January - if not let’s all chip in some money and get a Netweather forum members trip to the Arctic circle sorted out!

Could you kindly post a link to the post you mentioned?  Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Just now, blizzard81 said:

To all those sceptical of how much things can change for the better in the 6 day timeframe, look at yesterday's 156hr gfs para and compare to this evening's 132hr chart

gfsnh-0-156.png

gfsnh-0-132.png

The one thing that hasn’t changed is the lobe of death piece of vortex, doesn’t really matter what happens on no model is that ridge going to do anything significant for us  unfortunately.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, IDO said:

ECM on the last 6 days 12z runs for D10 has performed as badly as the GFS, about 50% below its normal average.

368395183_cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX(1).thumb.png.98890d3dc74f26bf31f75016af333150.png

I would not hang your hat on ECM performing any better at that range than the GFS in the current environment.

That’s unusually low . Interestingly it coincides with the strat warming . Currently we also have the mystery surrounding the MJO

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The one thing that hasn’t changed is the lobe of death piece of vortex, doesn’t really matter what happens on no model is that ridge going to do anything significant for us  unfortunately.

Frigid easterlies nearly always have those angry lobes to our north west. Have a look in the archives at previous classic easterlies and you will see what I mean. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, nick sussex said:

That’s unusually low . Interestingly it coincides with the strat warming . Currently we also have the mystery surrounding the MJO

Anything  beyond day 6/7 has a good chance of being wrong at the minute then, that is definitely a good thing with what’s showing up. SSW/MJO maybe is having an effect that the computers just can’t handle , so who’s to say a beast isn’t on the cards - the METO aren’t, so I’ll await the GFS/ECM to sort their s*** out and look forward to the ride in a week or so. 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Time for the gfs para to prove itself - and what better way to do that with a chart like this at 168hrs. I am hoping to see similar on tonight's ecm

gfsnh-0-168.png

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - cold, summer - not hot
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands

GFS 12z parallel is perilously close to setting up an easterly at 240 hours.  Is it finally happening?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

One can sense the anticipation waiting for the ECM.

Almost as exciting as waiting for the Eurovision Song Contest results ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
34 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

First off hats off to Ghandi/Steve who fair play did call a correction West and gfs has certainly jumped West today, even though in the scheme of things, it's not going to mean much unless we saw any further corrections West.

However, when people are commenting that the next set of runs are crucial, could send the forum into meltdown, then it's slightly un realistic seeing were all now waiting for Mid Jan and post reversal and split. 

Ay, certainly a better GFS, anything that downgrades unsettled weather is good, gone is the vile cold zonal, could be cold start to Jan, depending on how high sits etc, similar to 2002

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

One can sense the anticipation waiting for the ECM.

Almost as exciting as waiting for the Eurovision Song Contest results ! 

I love waiting for eurovision results lol..

EC will be interesting for sure.. can we scrape enough amplitude to pull in colder continental air..

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
22 minutes ago, IDO said:

ECM on the last 6 days 12z runs for D10 has performed as badly as the GFS, about 50% below its normal average.

368395183_cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX(1).thumb.png.98890d3dc74f26bf31f75016af333150.png

I would not hang your hat on ECM performing any better at that range than the GFS in the current environment.

Wow all models struggling at the moment.Where do you find these stats BTW?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I love waiting for eurovision results lol..

EC will be interesting for sure.. can we scrape enough amplitude to pull in colder continental air..

This mornings did try and loop the jet back sw at day 6 . A bit too much energy running over the top though stopped that at day 7.

After the GFS improvement I was hoping the UKMO would improve but that unfortunately didn’t happen .

Its down to the ECM now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Wow all models struggling at the moment.Where do you find these stats BTW?

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

The left column will give the 12z stats and the mean stats.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

FV3 T240, a bit messy but I think a direction of travel has been established today - will take a few more runs before the effects of what is a significant SSW start to become better represented in the models:

image.thumb.jpg.f759d121d626cf3de78cf9b317695872.jpg

upgrades today!

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, bluearmy said:

I think we may have ‘lift off’ today ....

 if so, it’s perhaps 36 hours later than I expected .... of course the more interesting gefs may be gone by the morning but the improved gfsp is stark !

Day 11

5F777525-BE80-4F5C-93D8-02B02C7CF5CB.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Very, very good

GFSPARANH12_336_1.thumb.png.90a0ef95c863301997bc6b3d18397d59.png

Scandi High. Disrupting trough. Azores High sniffing a trip to Greenland

Let's hope we reel this in

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Strat looking a lot better too on the FV3.:oldgood:

gfsnh-10-186-1.png

gfsnh-10-216.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Incoming WAA will boost the scandy HP, which is getting stronger on its own as it is. 

8257B4D0-7139-45AA-9494-EB46123F1836.png

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