Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Decemberof2010]

Pert 15 says Happy New Year

 

Edited December 18, 2018 by Decemberof2010

[Methuselah]

21 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Yes would be detrimental to those along the immediate coast due to warmer on-shore breeze, but fantastic for those inland. Higher SST's will create more moisture = more potent showers. The greater the difference between the air temperature (colder the better) and SST (warmer the better), the more intense the precip will be. 

Was thinking the same thing: if last March's Beast gave us the dumping it did, just think how much snaw we could get, were -12C uppers to blow across the North Sea, two months earlier..?

[nick sussex]

Interesting difference of opinion between the ECM and GFS with the outlook .

The ECM shows a large spread in slp to the nw from day 7 , you can also see the huge spread on 850s.

So still a lot of uncertainty for Christmas week . 

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Peer 15 says Happy New Year

 

I think that's the kind of thing GP mused about not so many mins about on here!!!! Bank anyway

[JeffC]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Was thinking the same thing: if last March's Beast gave us the dumping it did, just think how much snaw we could get, were -12C uppers to blow across the North Sea, two months earlier..?

To be honest Pete I'd prefer a slightly more northerly tilt to it than a straight Easterly, we ended up in the rain shadow from the Eastern Lakes Mountains and the Pennines, with the March 18 Beast, but nobbut a sprinkling of snow, even at height over here. Just mighty chilly in the wind!

While it won't verify exactly as shown, it might just be the right side of Easterly to give the whole country a shot.

[karyo]

1 minute ago, JeffC said:

To be honest Pete I'd prefer a slightly more northerly tilt to it than a straight Easterly, we ended up in the rain shadow from the Eastern Lakes Mountains and the Pennines, with the March 18 Beast, but nobbut a sprinkling of snow, even at height over here. Just mighty chilly in the wind!

While it won't verify exactly as shown, it might just be the right side of Easterly to give the whole country a shot.

There will always be areas that find themselves in a rain shadow. A straight easterly may keep you relatively dry but a northeasterly will do the same to another location.

[weirpig]

Interesting  Graph to highlight the Heat Flux    only beaten by two others. 

Dusper_WkAIWx4Q.jpg_large

[ITSY]

I think there's been a substantial step forward on the GFS this morning. Para, Control and Op all showing variants of a split SPV with either a strong or very strong UK-based MLB, with heights ever-so-slowly creeping northwards. Given the pro forecasts, that seems about in-keeping with expectations for the medium term. 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Interesting  Graph to highlight the Heat Flux    only beaten by two others. 

Dusper_WkAIWx4Q.jpg_large

The strongest this side of New Year sine 1978 though, and who’s to say we haven’t got time for another in Jan or Feb. 

[Methuselah]

I hope the Para is right, and really deep cold air rushes into Europe...What a beast that would be!

PS: There may be reason to expect upgrades!

Edited December 18, 2018 by Ed Stone

[karlos1983]

15 minutes ago, karyo said:

There will always be areas that find themselves in a rain shadow. A straight easterly may keep you relatively dry but a northeasterly will do the same to another location.

I’ll take an easterly with a side of channel low please 

[ALL ABOARD]

If you were happy with yesterdays MET update take a look at todays.

Northerly or Easting winds dominating with frontal systems bumping into the west to produce frontal snow.

Christmas come early?
 

[stodge]

Afternoon all

I suspected this morning's output would restore some colour to people's cheeks and get the curtains a-twitchin'.

For those of us who love cold without the snow, GFS FI is delightful with both OP and Parallel showing substantial mid-latitude blocking and as I constantly have to remind people, it's perfectly possible to get an ice day in London without a flake of snow on the ground if you get a serious inversion and both OP and Parallel - I know the 2m temperatures aren't suggesting that at the moment but I'm absolutely convinced IF we got a set up like:

We would have fog and frost as long as (and it's a big proviso) we can avoid embedding cloud in the circulation. This is why I quite like an HP forming from the south over land as they have less cloud in the embedded circulation than an HP coming in from the east or west.

Anyway, all a long way off and of course the big positive is the split PV now showing on both OP and Parallel which is significant IF it plays out.

All this will be too late for Christmas and New Year celebrations I suspect but promises a lot for January if the cards drop right.

[Guest]

Just now, ALL ABOARD said:

If you were happy with yesterdays MET update take a look at todays.

Northerly or Easting winds dominating with frontal systems bumping into the west to produce frontal snow.

Christmas come early?
 

Would love that setup but gotta see it to believe it, and I would respect the MET an awful lot more if they got that right from this range. So fingers crossed.

At the moment the trend is for a UK high and I for one can’t see past that. It also resonates with the trend we had over summer.

[northwestsnow]

Goodness me that is huge upgrade from Exeter!!!.

They must be really confident ..

East or north easterly?

Yes please!!

Edited December 18, 2018 by northwestsnow

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Goodness me that is huge upgrade from Exeter!!!.

They are really confident ..

East or north easterly?

Yes please!!

Next step is to get rid of the uncertainty and longjevity bit and get a pure cold (non faux) forecast right out to the last 3rd of Jan.

And what better way to do that than keep on with the split SSW runs

Edited December 18, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[fromey]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Goodness me that is huge upgrade from Exeter!!!.

They must be really confident ..

East or north easterly?

Yes please!!

That update just sent chills down my spine!! 

i would say confidence is relatively high.

bring it on

fromey  

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Goodness me that is huge upgrade from Exeter!!!.

They must be really confident ..

East or north easterly?

Yes please!!

Yes astonishing update . I thought it hadent change from yesterday’s when I read it earlier but it’s now updated and it’s stunning.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Next step is to get rid of the uncertainty and longjevity bit and get a pure cold (non faux) forecast right out to the last 3rd of Jan.

And what better way to do that than keep on with the split SSW runs

Agreed my friend..

I assume with the wording 'increasing likelihood' they are seeing Glosea pretty on target..

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Let’s not jinx it!!

[ICE COLD]

Where is Mr Murr ??? 

Hold on I’ve found him . 

He’s cutting and levelling the grass ready for the dumpings of snow in Jan ?

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes astonishing update . I thought it hadent change from yesterday’s when I read it earlier but it’s now updated and it’s stunning.

Still says updated 0120 , similar to yesterday’s...

[ICE COLD]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Still says updated 0120 , similar to yesterday’s...

Go to the meto 16-30 dayer thread it’s posted in there . Make sure your sitting down tho

[ALL ABOARD]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Still says updated 0120 , similar to yesterday’s...

It's not. Summer sun posted one but it hadn't updated. 

 

Here is today's. 

 

Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds. Should this occur, then wintry conditions are possible in eastern, southern and central areas with western parts of the UK staying relatively drier. Though should any Atlantic frontal systems try to make inroads western areas could also see some snow. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in early January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.

[karlos1983]

Oh GFS (P) is a beaut