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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm sure it'll be stonkers all round by tomorrow morning...So I'm off to listen to Nick Abbot's alphabetical roundup of 2018. May the snow gods be with y'all!??

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

This time last year we were coming off the back of several proper northwesterly incursions and various snow episodes in many locations. This winter so far couldn't be more stark.

We are due a bit of luck. 

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its just too early a timeframe that it goes down the pan, you would need at the very minimum 10 GEFS members pulling it off at the moment to have any chance, its floating between 0 and 1 at the moment

I know, I painstaking went through them earlier and 1 is being generous!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

It’s ok I’ve sussed it!! Missing Data

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

7A007415-53CB-41C5-97D9-EB9100DC9F1E.thumb.png.4edd17f0c3f5a5d0250cb21f38fe2286.png

Better looking jet profile for early on. Probably still come to nothing but we’ll see.

Yes - sharper ridge as a result and the troughing held much further back.

image.thumb.png.4f75de8c7f0994a3b5dd47482149d60d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

It just shows how volatile the strat forecasts have been recently, only 162 hours into the run and im thinking of getting ready to put Instantweathermaps up in a window, never done this before, always been over 200 - usually 240 as you rarely get such run to run variability as has been happening lately!

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Trouble is with a chart like this

AC7EF1DC-507D-46DE-BB67-B0D0826E3C89.thumb.png.15520ab201be8e81d233babc5a258184.png

I’m not really sure what I am willing on for it to turn into something decent. But in some ways it isn’t a bad looking chart at all. Very strange. I suppose best shot will be for a North Westerly.

Especially when you consider we virtually had a cross polar flow a few days earlier.

A49877A6-6F00-49B1-9920-54F1D59CAA4A.thumb.png.c706fab904443c8fea9e6f933a1540b6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

FI I know, but this is a disgusting chart for Jan- jet running uniformly around the hemisphere. That's never a good sign

image.thumb.png.3ef8920c1704b9ebd7483a9bb2a25919.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

FI I know, but this is a disgusting chart for Jan- jet running uniformly around the hemisphere. That's never a good sign

image.thumb.png.3ef8920c1704b9ebd7483a9bb2a25919.png

Unfortunately though it is a default chart for Jan, particularly recently.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The lack of sharpening of the trough out of N America D6-D7 has been perplexing for a time when there’s increasingly strong agreement that the MJO will gain significant amplitude.

Ironically ECM, which has the least amplified MJO - and is probably  behind the curve in that respect as it’s long had a low bias in the Pacific phase - is the one that’s tried for a trough disruption this eve, albeit not a very effective one.

 

2nd week Jan, even with a flushing down of zonal winds, the flatness of the last two GFS runs is truly madness when the MJO is looking so active. The 06z was more like it; a war between two competing forces with the battlefront shifting about, then on D16 signs of the zonal winds relenting as the reversal makes itself felt.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The eps clusters post day 10 can be summed up 

a) like the gfs op 18z 67%

b) failing to get the upper trough past the meridian (and probably taking its lead from the strat picture). 33%

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Unfortunately though it is a default chart for Jan, particularly recently.

Seriously though, when was the last time that we had serious cold and snow in January? Is Mr Data around this evening?:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The eps clusters post day 10 can be summed up 

a) like the gfs op 18z 67%

b) failing to get the upper trough past the meridian (and probably taking its lead from the strat picture). 33%

Oh dear..

Oh well, tomorrows another day..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Seriously though, when was the last time that we had serious cold and snow in January? Is Mr Data around this evening?:oldgrin:

2013 and 2010, before that 1996

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
41 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Might be a cold NW coming here ..

I can cope with that!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

2013 and 2010, before that 1996

Also Jan  2001, 2002 and 2003.. 

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