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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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doesn’t it  always want to flatten the ridge,don’t think any cold spells would develop if you just relied on gfs ,until a cold spell is about 3 days ahead.Tiresome model to look at.

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ICON is the next best and most consistent model after the ECM in my view.

 

Absolutely superb for the Spring easterlies and summer heatwave.

 

 

 

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Some fantastic cold charts arriving soon.....Luckily I'm on the drink today...Classic plus Nao pattern building on the 12z gfs

image.png

Edited by FiftyShadesofSnow
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Silence says it's all. Gfs couldn't be more opposite if it tried and back to square one. Groundhog day again! 😴

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4 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Silence says it's all. Gfs couldn't be more opposite if it tried and back to square one. Groundhog day again! 😴

I reckon it will be another two days 

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3 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Silence says it's all. Gfs couldn't be more opposite if it tried and back to square one. Groundhog day again! 😴

Hopefully the gFS para is a blinder!!!

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6 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Luckily I'm on the drink today...

image.png

Is everyone a raging alcoholic here? 😄 

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Just now, The Eagle said:

Is everyone a raging alcoholic here? 😄 

Hehe with these charts of course I want snow, cold and blizzards, lake effect snow, Thames freezing over and 62 style Winters😁😁

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1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

Is everyone a raging alcoholic here? 😄 

sometimes looking at the models drive you to drink l.o.l

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.f4d2bb16556f3381505c54af63983edf.png

Feb my phone isn't great,what is that chart showing?tia

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2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Feb my phone isn't great,what is that chart showing?tia

Big split.

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4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Feb my phone isn't great,what is that chart showing?tia

A stonking big stratospheric ridge at 10mb covering the North pole right the way from the Pacific to the British isles.

In other words a stratospheric cross polar flow.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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13 minutes ago, swfc said:

Hopefully the gFS para is a blinder!!!

The strat is looking better early doors even to my untrained eye early the FV3.:oldsmile:

gfsnh-10-120.png

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46 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

ICON is the next best and most consistent model after the ECM in my view.

 

Absolutely superb for the Spring easterlies and summer heatwave.

 

 

 

It’s useless. Never understand why people bother with it.

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Well the GFS 12Z was a Absolut, royal waste of time!!:drunk-emoji::drunk:

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1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Counting the time away waiting  for my flight on Friday from LHR-YVR. Must say the weather over Christmas has been depressing. Just watched the weather presentation on BBC by the very likeable Thomas Schafernaker ,he looked  totally fed up with the present bore fest. He could see no change until the New Year and suggested the mild weather will move into much of Central and Eastern Europe this week. Poor man , as I think he loves to present cold weather ! My daughter had a max of -10c in Sweden on Christmas Eve and now +3C with rain. High Pressure, cloud laden skies and 9c is just the worst scenario in deepest mid-winter . Anyway, think its pub time to lighten my mood. Hopefully, the crap weather will get kicked away by a powerful Arctic blast for you lot soon after New Year. By that time I will be too far away hunting the same cold in Pacific Canada !

 C

No New Year cheer from this GFS chart of horror for UK. Lets hope UKMO (168t extended ) and ECM lifts the mood in the hunt of cold for you guys ?

C

850temp_20181226_12_240.jpg

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Seriously nothing now I'd like to see more than to see that Atlantic absolutely do one...GFS now spewing out Xmas dinner left overs of chewed sprouts and regurgitated turkey. 🤢 The model obviously doesn't believe in a season for all men!

Edited by Froze were the Days
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6 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Seriously nothing now I'd like to see more now than to see that Atlantic absolutely do one...GFS now spewing out Xmas dinner left overs of chewed sprouts and regurgitated turkey. 🤢 The model obviously doesn't believe in a season for all men!

Unfortunately we're in the  Hunt for Strat split time zone ...not knocking that, as it seems that's our only route to cold.....However were now looking at 11th Jan....I suspect this will run until April when we're breaking out our bbqs, mankinis, flowers.....I want snow!!😡

Edited by FiftyShadesofSnow
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The only comfort I'm getting from these dismal charts is the apparent lack of extreme storminess.  Other than that it's the worst kind of output for this time of year.

 

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5 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Unfortunately we're in the  Hunt for Strat split time zone ...not knocking that, as it seems that's our only route to cold.....However were now looking at 11th Jan....I suspect this will run until April when we're breaking out our bbqs, mankinis, flowers.....I want snow!!😡

Your on the booze FSS, you were all positive and excited about half an hour ago when you posted, what's made you change your mind all of a sudden, time for a quiz maybe? Lets see what ECM has to offer.:drunk-emoji:

Edited by snowray
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