Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[snowray]

FV3 looking a lot better earlier doors at T150. A hint of the ECM evolution there maybe.

[snowray]

Looking flipping brilliant now at T174....I wonder?

 

Edited December 25, 2018 by snowray
spelling

[Allseasons-Si]

27 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes lets wait and see what the ensembles look like before jumping to any conclusions.

Oh dear, JMA is pretty much yuk too.

Is it!

Azores high migrating west to allow a notherly if that went further but it doesn't and won't show the FL candy the gfs/gefs shows,that should be a good thing as the models do not have a clue anyway that far out and to be taken with huge piles of...

what is interesting regards the jma is that it obliterates the strat to 264.

 

[Paul_1978]

45 minutes ago, snowray said:

Oh dear.....

It’s a T+384 chart mate.....

[markw2680]

Dear me looks like it’s gospel time again with every run.

if you ask me the models haven’t got to grips with any ssw yet so will likely look quite bland and then suddenly very small early changes will appear and then as the run gets going will look better and better, and every day once they find the correct solution the small changes will be bigger and bigger. It’s obviously they haven’t a clue due to the complete inconsistency of it all.

its not a roller coaster for nothing

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

It’s a T+384 chart mate.....

Yes it is, and this is the FV3 at T300, oh well, tomorrows another day. The strat charts still looking excellent.

[Jason M]

The trend to zonal on the GEFS continues to gather pace. Given the time scales involved a large pinch of salt clearly needed (we have plenty to spare sadly). Looks like the heights collapse to our south and the weather becomes more mobile. In reality this was always likely to be the exit route from the UK high so we might as well get it over and done with. Better it happens in the next 10 days than we get stuck under the high for three weeks or more which was being widely trailed yesterday. 

 

 

 

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, Jason M said:

The trend to zonal on the GEFS continues to gather pace. Given the time scales involved a large pinch of salt clearly needed (we have plenty to spare sadly). Looks like the heights collapse to our south and the weather becomes more mobile. In reality this was always likely to be the exit route from the UK high so we might as well get it over and done with. Better it happens in the next 10 days than we get stuck under the high for three weeks or more which was being widely trailed yesterday. 

 

 

 

Quite the opposite really the trend away from zonal sub <180 is the clear GFS trend of the day then the manual overide kicks in -

The GFS is developing a bigger wave with each run - especially on this occasion the FV3-

Edited December 25, 2018 by Steve Murr

[JeffC]

Doesn't matter....All negative issues are due to lack of data because of Christmas...OF COURSE!

Edit: oops did I say that?

Edited December 26, 2018 by JeffC

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Quite the opposite really the trend away from zonal sub <180 is the clear GFS trend of the day then the manual overide kicks in -

The GFS is developing a bigger wave with each run - especially on this occasion the FV3-

Fair enough, can see where your coming from albeit I personally don't think much will come of it (love to be proved wrong though). TBH it will probably completely change in the morning anyway, but I'm thinking UK high (obviously now nailed on), heights decline to south leading to zonal / mobile period then perhaps a short sharp northerly outbreak. Post that ?

 

 

 

[nick sussex]

Hope everyone had a good Christmas .

At least the ECM has finally developed some festive spirit with its day ten chart !

Quite bizarre though to see the huge differences in the MJO forecasts between the GEFS and ECM. 

The latest update suggests though that the MJO is expected to remain active over the next few weeks and moving in towards the Pacific.

This would be good news for prospects for Western Europe . As with SSWs there are no guarantees but better to have some better background signals than trying to make a quality meal out of rubbish ingredients !

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Doesn't matter....All negative issues are due to lack of data because of Christmas...OF COURSE!

I think that many of us were expecting to see something on the horizon in the far reaches of FI by Christmas day, ECM looks ok though. 

[Catacol]

Right. Here we go again. GSDM charts updated as to 23rd - and we have MT back on the up. Given expected lag times impact shortly after New Year with vortex disruption inbound.

I think when the change comes it is going to be sudden and the block will surge north swiftly. All we need now is to see some cold pooling to the east. It has to be said at present that temps to our east are not especially low unfortunately - but there is time for that to change as we head into January.

 

 

[kold weather]

2 hours ago, Singularity said:

There's posisbly an excessive feedback from the faster zonal winds descending ahead of the reversal... not sure but I think I came across that in a doc somewhere that discussed different model biases. What should be a brief uptick gets made far too lengthy.

Great progress with the non-ECM strat evolutions today. Almost at the point where we can at last rest easy on getting a wide and prolonged enough split to aid development of the HLB we seek by 8-14 days into Jan (on top of whatever the tropical forcing achieves beforehand).

 

Hopefully that feedback error rings true - I’m optimistic as the extent of neg AO development doesn’t fit historical precedent, and like Ladyofthestorm I’ve seen the models behave in similar ways during the other spit SSWs of the past dozen years.

I think this is the classic over egging the one from GFS. It's far colder over the USA than any other model, and this helps to ramp up that jet and tighten back up the vortex. This is a well known GFS bias, though that doesn't mean it's wrong of course.

I have to say given all factors, a revamp of the PV as rapidly as this would be desperately unlucky and probably somewhat rare? 

Key marker is to see a downgrade in that cold shot into the E.USA, the less we get shooting down the lower the strength of the jet and thus restrengthen ing of the PV.

At least there would be some cold zonal risk if the GFS were right.

Edited December 26, 2018 by kold weather

[The Eagle]

ICON leading the way as usual but UKMO equally good

 

Just a LITTLE less energy now through the GL - Iceland corridor and we are in. The trend is our friend.

 

[DanDorsetUK]

Looks another step in the right direction from gfs 00z with less reorganizing of the pv and a renewed height attempt in the final frames. I'm liking the trend in the gfs. 

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Looks another step in the right direction from gfs 00z with less reorganizing of the pv and a renewed height attempt in the final frames. I'm liking the trend in the gfs. 

Strat split and second warming too, all looking good even if charts aren’t there yet. 

[swfc]

25 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Strat split and second warming too, all looking good even if charts aren’t there yet. 

Has the strat totally split now even on gfs!!tia

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Has the strat totally split now even on gfs!!tia

Near as dam it and a good second attempt. 

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Near as dam it and a good second attempt. 

I've just looked on the para and the PV looks to have vanished in fi ?

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

I've just looked on the para and the PV looks to have vanished in fi ?

Indeed, Split followed by the Houdini strat. 

[Ali1977]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Indeed, Split followed by the Houdini strat. 

I’m sure those more knowledgable will post strat stuff, to me this morning looks like a potential improvement for later on in January and coldies. METO update has no change which is good.

[booferking]

Almost there at the turn of the year colder weather could come quicker than we think. 

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Almost there at the turn of the year colder weather could come quicker than we think. 

Followed by this, different in a good way. 

[swfc]

Close but no cigar on the EC just a variation on the theme tho imo 

Edited December 26, 2018 by swfc