Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Weathizard]

Not sure what to make of the GFS ensembles at day 10, there’s a couple of gooduns but honestly on the whole they are very dissappointing the vortex seems to be reorganising, oddly. Day 10 plus look good mind you, seen that before though!

Seems 24 hours ago the GFS had the strat impacts filtering down a lot quicker than right now, par for the course with SSW I guess.

Edited January 2, 2019 by Weathizard

[karlos1983]

GEFS complete with GFS(P)

It's the slippery slope we all want a ride on 

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

GEFS complete with GFS(P)

It's the slippery slope we all want a ride on 

Obsolutely 'BANGING' set there..

And make a tie 2 the gfs parra!!..

[Methuselah]

BOOM! ZWR! TR!

[Ruzzi]

5 hours ago, Newberryone said:

Hopefully just a wobble from the overnight Ecm run for it's a considerable downgrade on recent runs. Would be great to have the full impact of the SSW felt within the next fortnight giving us a good 6 weeks from then till end of Feb  to possibly enjoy its fruits rather than have it all happening too little too late, much like what happend end of Feb ‘18.

Yes, I hated the end of February/early March 2018  

I'd gladly wait all winter for that again! 

 

 

On a more topical discussion, it would seem that model volatility is still very much evident with op runs continuing to fluctuate from scenario to scenario. Not entirely sure what way this will go, but to not get anything meaningful prior to the end of February would be extremely bad luck. 

Temps really struggling here today so it can be easy to forget whats under the nose by getting too wrapped up in looking ahead. Lows of -5C here last night and struggling to get above -1C all day. 

One thing for sure is that this winter will be a massive learning curve for strat interaction coupled with particular teleconnections and can't wait for the re-analysis by the more experienced members to pick the bones from it. 

[Earthshine]

10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

BOOM! ZWR! TR!

Wayyyy too cold!!!!

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, Evening Star said:

Wayyyy too cold!!!!

I'm sorry, I don't speak Swahili, can someone translate  

absolutely perfect chart for mid winter, yes please Para!

So exactly what we would expect so far today really, models all over the place trying to figure out the route forward. Expect this to continue for a while yet!

Edited January 2, 2019 by karlos1983

[Methuselah]

So it's gone from almost certain cold, from mid Jan, to the usual mild muck, with a far from certain chance of something colder? And just as the models start to pick-up on 'something colder'...You couldn't make it up!

[Dunstable Snow]

1 hour ago, Glacier Point said:

.. back to views out of hotel windows in Torquay....

Unless and until upstream Pacific flow is resolved, and until strat downwelling takes place, out to day 10 will have a strong mid latitude high component for NW Europe.

Can you see herds of wilder beasts or the hanging gardens of Babylon GP ?

Glad to see the GSFP has lightened the mood until the next panic starts.

I think we are going to need regular updates from the likes of Glacier Point, Nick F, John H Blue Army Singularity Catacol, BB1962, Carithian and Steve Murr to keep us all fully informed on the ongoing direction of travel. There is just too much information to digest sometimes but updates from these guys should keep us on the straight and narrow.   

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

So it's gone from almost certain cold, from mid Jan, to the usual mild muck, with a far from certain chance of something colder? And just as the models start to pick-up on 'something colder'...You couldn't make it up!

As per previous theme .... ‘don’t mention Exeter’s update...... i mentioned it once but I think I got away with it ‘ ......

if that’s what the modelling shows then that what they are going to go with ... ec46 wasn’t cold till the backend of jan as the jet sank far enough south ....

[Dunstable Snow]

6 minutes ago, Dunstable Snow said:

Can you see herds of wilder beasts or the hanging gardens of Babylon GP ?

Glad to see the GSFP has lightened the mood until the next panic starts.

I think we are going to need regular updates from the likes of Glacier Point, Nick F, John H Blue Army Singularity Catacol, BB1962, Carithian and Steve Murr to keep us all fully informed on the ongoing direction of travel. There is just too much information to digest sometimes but updates from these guys should keep us on the straight and narrow.   

Should also have included Nick Sussex in my request list above despite his team ruining my new years day.

[legritter]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Wow. 

Met office update, no cold until end of Jan NOT week 3 as previously suggested. 

The wait goes on. 

The game goes on ,but tomorrow's update could be different again .The warming as taken place ,I'm sure we will soon see some brilliant charts appearing, unexpected ,sudden ,mind blowing output . I'm up the wood shed right now ,it's freezing ,frost as just melted ,we await this evening's output, STELLAS all round gang. 

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Dunstable Snow said:

I think we are going to need regular updates from the likes of Glacier Point, Nick F, John H Blue Army Singularity Catacol, BB1962, Carithian and Steve Murr to keep us all fully informed on the ongoing direction of travel. There is just too much information to digest sometimes but updates from these guys should keep us on the straight and narrow.   

The musings of these great forecasters and weather gurus now appear at variance to the Met Office boffins with the cold and chance of snow pushed out to month end as opposed to mid month. Will be interesting to see what occurs.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

As per previous theme .... ‘don’t mention Exeter’s update...... i mentioned it once but I think I got away with it ‘ ......

if that’s what the modelling shows then that what they are going to go with ... ec46 wasn’t cold till the backend of jan as the jet sank far enough south ....

Ah, now I get it BA: what I smelled was not a rat, it was a hamster!

[Mapantz]

Met Office chat here please.

[Catacol]

Well - what to make of it all. MetO put everything back. Chio chimes in with words of caution and visions of westerlies. And at the same time we have EAMT spiking

Tendency of AAM on a decent up, reflective of this plus frictional torque, and a forcing to provide a more meridional pattern

MJO hitting the favoured sweet spot in and around phase 7 as it exits the maritime continent

A reversal which looks like going on and on

And a lower strat chart at 150hpa that screams to me of heights up towards Greenland

But Glosea clearly sees things differently. I'm at the outer edge of my understanding - and if cold doesn't come then I'll need to go back to the text books and articles and brush up some more. Already got poleward eddy flux on the list of things to get better at - maybe the list is going to get very long....

Curious indeed. Did someone come on duty at Exeter after New Year today with a sore head?

Edited January 2, 2019 by Catacol

[dallas]

 

Not a bad set of 06z ensembles, appears to me there are a few more members below

Edited January 2, 2019 by dallas

[Selliso]

Comparing trends from 31/12 to today's run. Weak snow signal has inched closer. The Parallel at 850 drops like a stone from 10/1. The scatter and noise seems very high, even in a short time frame (4/5 days away)

Fascinating to once again see the models struggle to reconcile against the SSW impacts. Always seems to be the same!

Liam Dutton's explanation made sense to my layman's brain - the models are clearly able to model and understand SSW impacts, but the issue is that the SSW impacts are also a forecast! So it's a forecast based on a forecast... like averaging an average, you can end up wide of the mark.

Still seems to be on track for cold, even if the exact date remains just out of reach for now.

31st:

 

 2nd Jan: 

 

Edited January 2, 2019 by Selliso

[Methuselah]

Nice to see the precipitation spikes coinciding with the coldest conditions, too...

[nick sussex]

The models still not sure what happens with shortwave energy in the Atlantic .

The will it or won’t it phase with the upstream troughing saga goes on.  They also disagree on the level of amplification towards the ne USA.

The ECM today has no phase , last night it did .  Detail wise for the UK this makes a big difference so for the timebeing no certainty as to what’s going to happen in the next week.

The quickest route to cold is the no phase scenario.

PS am important  driver of next weeks weather is a developing low moving east across the USA, the trough to the west of the UK will respond to that. The more amplified the low the more sharpness will develop in that trough . If you have no phasing earlier this will help drive the shortwave se developing a stronger ridge to the nw . That’s why the phase or not is crucial . The UKMO unfortunately phases the shortwave but look at its upstream pattern at day 6 and the response of the trough  , no phase and things could get interesting .

Edited January 2, 2019 by nick sussex

[karlos1983]

If we all believe exactly what the Met Office say, it does beg the question..... What the hell are all doing on here, watching model run after model run? we can just read the MetO updates once a day and be done with it............ What fun!

onto the 12z we go following a confused set of models so far today!

Edited January 2, 2019 by karlos1983

[Nick L]

"Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location."

For most, the bit in bold is an easy instruction to follow. But for those who insist on ignoring it, your posts will continue to be removed.

[Weather-history]

11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

"Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location."

For most, the bit in bold is an easy instruction to follow. But for those who insist on ignoring it, your posts will continue to be removed.

Isn't it time for a fresh thread anyway?

Already 204 pages this one and furthermore  title "heading into Christmas", well Christmas has gone. 

[JeffC]

13 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

If we all believe exactly what the Met Office say, it does beg the question..... What the hell are all doing on here, watching model run after model run? we can just read the MetO updates once a day and be done with it............ What fun!

onto the 12z we go following a confused set of models so far today!

top right one looks like the Vortex has just had something warm stuck up its jacksie!

[nick sussex]

The low you need to keep an eye on is the one over the central north USA at day 6 .

The big 3 fail to agree on its amplitude , the GFS is the flattest with that , the ECM more amplified , the UKMO the most amplified .

NCEP currently favour slower solutions which means the more amplified solutions .