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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
6 minutes ago, shaky said:

I did mention it yesterday buddy a couple of times!!ensembles can look as good as they want but if operational keeps churning out horrible charts like the one above it just aint gona happen as harsh as it sounds!!eventually the ensmbles will follow the op no matter how huge the percentage on cold!!even the high has been flattened at 144 hours compared to yesterdays runs!!what ticks me off is when theres mild showing in the ensembles even if its only 30 percent it always happens!!

You did mate, I'm getting concerned and TBH after reading chinos post in the strat thread has only compounded it..

I'm trying to remain optimistic in this hunt for cold - one could argue the next few days are just that with some welcome frosts for many

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia (Maribor)
  • Location: Slovenia (Maribor)

What I find great to watch are the zonal wind anomalies at the equator. We know that the QBO (-) and (QBO (+) cycle usually last for about 12 months. And we now have a strange looking situation, if we look at the top of the stratosfere (1hPa-10hPa) we already see the QBO (east) filtering slowly down. The real QBO (+) is currently based from the 10hPa-50hPa stratosfere area. But if everything was normal there should be the strong QBO (+) now reaching the troposfere. But in my opinion something is "lagging" the westerly (QBO) response, which is usually a very good thing for us, if we want a colder than average winter.

997718732_Breznaslova1.thumb.png.ed255981d77fb235427bea34cede020d.png

If we look at the zonal wind index for november at 50 hPa, there was still a QBO (east) present.

169786380_Breznaslova1.thumb.png.2a18de217990b957ca8457940b634aa5.png

 

Edited by Redbull165
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

GFS/P looking a tad out of kilter

 

 

Screenshot_20190102-093405_Chrome.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Some quite cold GEFS members now starting to show:

image.thumb.png.775cf3259ad1cfd7d1d2a747e1ad3ec5.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

GFS/P looking a tad out of kilter

 

 

Screenshot_20190102-093405_Chrome.jpg

Gfs p has been a waste if time really and its just as bad as the normal gfs even thouugh its meant to perform better!!look how rogue that run has decided to go!!madnees!!!anyway look for maybe a flatter pattern around 120 144 hours on gfs 06z!!similar to icon 6z!!

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
4 minutes ago, Redbull165 said:

What I find great to watch are the zonal wind anomalies at the equator. We know that the QBO (-) and (QBO (+) cycle usually last for about 12 months. And we now have a strange looking situation, if we look at the top of the stratosfere (1hPa-10hPa) we already see the QBO (east) filtering slowly down. The real QBO (+) is currently based from the 10hPa-50hPa stratosfere area. But if everything was normal there should be the strong QBO (+) now reaching the troposfere. But in my opinion something is "lagging" the westerly (QBO) response, which is usually a very good thing for us, if we want a colder than average winter.

Well, December has finished well above average and the first half of January is looking average at best, so late January and February would have to be off the scale cold wise to bring a colder than average Winter overall.

Very little in the output to indicate proper cold before the 20th of this month.

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

For those who may be having panic attacks because the ops are not showing snowpocalypse - yet - it might be worth comparing the charts from early January 2017 (remember we had an SSW last year too...) with today's output.....

                              January 7th 2017                                         Today....

500s.   image.thumb.png.9013ab305592946f23a60b3184874538.png     image.thumb.png.1da13750e482bc5035bd6792876f0afa.png

850s.   image.thumb.png.6c45129926a73e0a9c1b4634e2b5df59.png     image.thumb.png.b21a769389ad52996b47aa9c75380a55.png

Jet stream:

           image.thumb.png.6db678d04e2ddebefe798f24c0b4a08d.png      image.thumb.png.a4de637137192cdb6418c092d3b62602.png

Now I won't pretend that they are an exact match, and 'anything can happen in the next half hour' as the saying goes, but to my eye there are many similarities - enough to suggest that we have every reason to keep the faith, because within one month the conditions last year looked like this:

image.thumb.png.99bf1ba681f4cca4e0a161403f4761b7.png    image.thumb.png.4ab979fc8b0457c898c0f1fe96fe9958.png

So, if you're thinking that the cold weather is all going to Eastern Europe, tune in again next week for a completely different story......

 

 

Edited by Sky Full
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Posted
  • Location: Bromborough WIRRAL
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold, hot sunny summer's and autumn storms
  • Location: Bromborough WIRRAL
58 minutes ago, jethro said:

Slightly underwhelmed here. If after all the expectation and waiting, all we get down here in the SW is to watch the rest of Europe and most of this country get cold and snowy, whilst we enjoy cold rain or a bit of frost, I think I'll sob.

Note to self...patience, patience, patience.

I feel your pain its usually the same for Wirral, Merseydide

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Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Some quite cold GEFS members now starting to show:

image.thumb.png.775cf3259ad1cfd7d1d2a747e1ad3ec5.png

Definitely a trend, this is more my neck of the woods, although, I'm a lot higher up in Co Durham.

A mean of pretty much -5, with only 2 members I believe above 0, it's 100% going the right way

gfs-newcastle-upon-tyne.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

@Quicksilver1989  I (we) miss the swingometer.  Please can we have an update please

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

The midnight GEFS werent bad at all! This final mean chart shows everything we want going into final half of Jan- Alaskan ridge, arctic high and Atlantic amplification - with the trop vortex split into 3.

 

70D072F3-74CF-46B9-8C26-11581D6E4E8B.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

6Z gfs seems to have run with the para in regard to flattening things again at the 120 hr mark? run to run differences hopefully but its there and its early on.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, ITSY said:

The midnight GEFS werent bad at all! This final mean chart shows everything we want going into final half of Jan- Alaskan ridge, arctic high and Atlantic amplification - with the trop vortex split into 3.

 

70D072F3-74CF-46B9-8C26-11581D6E4E8B.png

That looks much better

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, swfc said:

6Z gfs seems to have run with the para in regard to flattening things again at the 120 hr mark? run to run differences hopefully but its there and its early on.

Yup and is if by magic theres your flattening of the high that i mentioned 30 mins ago is gona happen!!horrendous!!ah well always the 12zs!!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

As ever i consider many people to be too dispondent in the outlook. Although there is still a residual vortex over Canada on the models there is also an Arctic High on both causing disruption that should eventually amplify said vortex segment... and that assumes we are not seeing too much strength forecast from it now.

We may end up missing the boat but that point in the models has not yet come.

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Big differences by 144 with more heights north.

look at the difference around Greenland 

3F122820-43E3-4A2E-89F2-42C10E9C17E1.png

F98001AA-7548-4901-BC8D-A52A63838D72.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

6z trying to force heights to our NW?

image.thumb.png.1debc509b3f6e1349be5aebdb19f0372.png

yes nw.there seems to be a lot of volatility even in the early stages of the runs atm.it may continue for quite a few days to come imo.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Not sure what some people are looking at the 6z looks far better, much cleaner doesn’t really matter how amplified the first ridge is that’s never going anywhere anyway. 

0z first, 6z second 

1C5C5450-EAEA-4377-A89C-6CEAF5875DAA.png

F64052F5-9F99-464A-880B-FA04EE9B8B12.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Not sure what some people are looking at the 6z looks far better, much cleaner doesn’t really matter how amplified the first ridge is that’s never going anywhere anyway. 

0z first, 6z second 

1C5C5450-EAEA-4377-A89C-6CEAF5875DAA.png

F64052F5-9F99-464A-880B-FA04EE9B8B12.png

Yup and knowing our luck the second ridge shall flatten out aswell lol!!give it time weathizard!!first ridge was completely flattened out!!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Not sure what some people are looking at the 6z looks far better, much cleaner doesn’t really matter how amplified the first ridge is that’s never going anywhere anyway. 

0z first, 6z second 

1C5C5450-EAEA-4377-A89C-6CEAF5875DAA.png

F64052F5-9F99-464A-880B-FA04EE9B8B12.png

I was commenting on the quick and subtle changes early on not the potential of the run.look at the low going threw Scandinavia on the 6z and compare to the oz.early changes cause the effect but they are there

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yup and knowing our luck the second ridge shall flatten out aswell lol!!give it time weathizard!!first ridge was completely flattened out!!

Yes but it’s 6 days out!! Things can change  and change quickly if your looking that far out

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