Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Radiating Dendrite]

13 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Further to the accerated 5 day chart posted above, showing increased downwelling of reversed winds into the trop, D10 is a beauty...

I get the feeling we are going to see a massive shift and drop into mid latitude of a substantial part of the vortex later in the month, think 1985.

Can you hear that sound........Chris Fawkes just spat out his cornflakes! 

Certainly seems to be coming together quite nicely. Is the fact the event is now happening leading to these upgrades?

[GeordieX9v]

12 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

Stonker northerly incoming.

Boom right there....

 

[Minnizi]

6 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I absolutely am..

After the wettest November and December I have recorded and not a single sub-zero minimum temperature either, the chart below is pure eye candy for some.

Me too @manpantz. After days on end of seeing mild temps thick cloud and damp. To see a clear crisp sky and a slight nip in the air, it actually feels like winter today 

[Tom Quintavalle]

20 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Further to the accerated 5 day chart posted above, showing increased downwelling of reversed winds into the trop, D10 is a beauty...

I get the feeling we are going to see a massive shift and drop into mid latitude of a substantial part of the vortex later in the month, think 1985.

Hi s4l,

Yes, I mentioned a while back. that a possible evolution of the Models to cold, could be similar to late Dec.'84/early Jan '85.

 Post - Christmas, Dec. '84, featured a frosty, foggy High, which was a prelude to a very cold, wintry spell in Jan'85. I remember it well, as I moved back down to S.E.London, from Lincolnshire on 27th Dec. The day notable for some thick, freezing fog and very frosty conditions, between Lincoln and London.

Just over a  week later at my new address in S.E.London, it started to snow and we had about 2 to 3 inches, due to weather associated with this Synoptic set-up:

Hope Mods don't mind me posting archive charts in tis thread!!. But just as Stuart Rampling (Glacier Pont), mentioned Dec'84/Jan'85 in a Strat post, the other day, s4Lancia's post grabbed my attention too. And as I've been typing this response, Laura Tobin has just been talking about a SSW. on ITV.

Apologies again to Mods but thought all this would be relevant.

Regards,

Tom. 

[Seasonality]

Nice weather porn on FV3 this morning. 30 cm of snow, I'll take that. Pity its in far FI. 

[GeordieX9v]

Can't say I'm much of a fan of this mornings ECM.

[Radiating Dendrite]

2 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

Can't say I'm much of a fan of this mornings ECM.

Yes, not what I was hoping for. 

Starts to setup a good northerly and then too much energy in the jet flattens it.

Sure it will be different again come the 12z.

[bluearmy]

couple of comments

a) ec again has a quick response reversal wave but the different upstream profile holds it around the pole ....... seems we will get a reversal wave within a few days of the ssw but whether it impacts nw Europe will depend on the Atlantic/polar profile preceding its arrival at the pole. 

B) both gfs and gfsp have a downwelling wave coming into the pole from the Alaskan ridge around the 13th .......if we cannot get the first one to play ball then even the slower response will be along within a fortnight ........ I expect the NOAA modelling to dance around that wave for the next few days, producing some crazy fi output 

[SLEETY]

Yesterday's 0z ecm had a nice easterly setting in at the end of the run. Today's the jet is flattened and winds are coming from the SW

Si really shows how fl is a complete waste of time.

 

[markw2680]

What I don’t get is why people are constantly looking at charts for like 6,7,8 days away etc just look at the trend for the next 4 days most and you can see the way things are going. Ie Atlantic will not be coming through and it’s going to get colder. You no that annoying phrase get the cold in first etc etc. 

The models don’t have a grip on things for next week yet so if you want to take things as gospel that far out then expect wild happy and unhappy swings. Not for me thanks I’d rather be level headed get enough swings at home.

its all going to plan for a good cold spell so relax

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

What I don’t get is why people are constantly looking at charts for like 6,7,8 days away etc just look at the trend for the next 4 days most and you can see the way things are going. Ie Atlantic will not be coming through and it’s going to get colder. You no that annoying phrase get the cold in first etc etc. 

The models don’t have a grip on things for next week yet so if you want to take things as gospel that far out then expect wild happy and unhappy swings. Not for me thanks I’d rather be level headed get enough swings at home.

its all going to plan for a good cold spell so relax

[Newberryone]

Hopefully just a wobble from the overnight Ecm run for it's a considerable downgrade on recent runs. Would be great to have the full impact of the SSW felt within the next fortnight giving us a good 6 weeks from then till end of Feb  to possibly enjoy its fruits rather than have it all happening too little too late, much like what happend end of Feb ‘18.

[blizzard81]

Ecm and gfs determined to make the return to work even more painful! 

[northwestsnow]

Well the 00z runs are poor across the board really,just too much energy in the northern arm.

Still in wait and see mode but i would be lying if i didn't say alarm bells are beginning to ring..

EC/UKMO which were showing signs of a ridgy Atlantic suddenly look very flat.

We have an excellent profile to our E/SE but getting zero help in the Atlantic..

Fingers crossed we start to see some better charts, soon.

[nick sussex]

The ECM is back to keeping the shortwave and low separate .

And scrapes some brief excitement , we get the scraps of a Little Chef whilst further east they continue to dine in Michelin starred restaurant !

The problem continues to be a lack of amplitude and any cold can’t establish itself .

The ECM reliability in recent days has been abysmal I’d ignore it until it’s settled down and others back it .

The issue upstream is what happens with the shortwave and low associated with the main trough .

Until we know whether that remains separate or phases then any forecast is likely to hit the buffers .

Edited January 2, 2019 by nick sussex

[BARRY]

Evan ITV weather is now talking about SSW and a good explanation 

 

[bluearmy]

Extended eps are headed in the same direction as the previous suite ..... a tad more nw/se with the systems than yesterday’s noon run.......a familiar fi gfs tale from the previous weeks runs and presumably what glosea or mogreps are seeing 

the eps remain different to the gems and gefs re the upstream amps and AO negativity 

Edited January 2, 2019 by bluearmy

[Nick F]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

the Well the 00z runs are poor across the board really,just too much energy in the northern arm.

Still in wait and see mode but i would be lying if i didn't say alarm bells are beginning to ring..

00z GFS PARA / FV3 looks OK, cold northerly by mid-week next week, then a colder NEly flow developing next Thursday as high pressure tries to ridge NE.

If high pressure system stays west enough, plenty of scope for the above evolution to evolve, EC has been heading in this direction, though 00z kind of goes pear shaped towards day 10 - with too much energy over the top thanks to deep vortex over Greenland/Baffin and resultant low heights into Iceland. 

No alarm bells ringing at my end yet and unlikely to be for a while if one is willing to have patience. 

Edited January 2, 2019 by Nick F

[Weather-history]

 

[northwestsnow]

16 minutes ago, Nick F said:

00z GFS PARA / FV3 looks OK, cold northerly by mid-week next week, then a colder NEly flow developing next Thursday as high pressure tries to ridge NE.

If high pressure system stays west enough, plenty of scope for the above evolution to evolve, EC has been heading in this direction, though 00z kind of goes pear shaped towards with too much energy over the top thanks to deep vortex over Greenland/Baffin and resultant low heights into Iceland. 

Thanks Nick, yes the para by far the best of the 00z runs..

 

Edited January 2, 2019 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

Nice spot Kev

Fingers crossed these positive background signals manifest themselves in NWP products soon..

[jethro]

Slightly underwhelmed here. If after all the expectation and waiting, all we get down here in the SW is to watch the rest of Europe and most of this country get cold and snowy, whilst we enjoy cold rain or a bit of frost, I think I'll sob.

Note to self...patience, patience, patience.

[snowfish1]

12 minutes ago, jethro said:

Slightly underwhelmed here. If after all the expectation and waiting, all we get down here in the SW is to watch the rest of Europe and most of this country get cold and snowy, whilst we enjoy cold rain or a bit of frost, I think I'll sob.

Note to self...patience, patience, patience.

Hi Jethro

 

Don't think you'll be excluded. Just a matter of time. How much is anyones guess but I think we maybe talking a fair duration of cold and also widespread so hold on in there and watch.... 

[Bazray]

56 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nice spot Kev

Fingers crossed these positive background signals manifest themselves in NWP products soon..

Catacol said yesterday he is digging out his de-icer and scraper and checking where his wellies and shovel are. Last time he said that was in February and we all know what happened next so keep the faith

edit that was meant as a reply to Jethro, wrong quote, sorry.

Edited January 2, 2019 by Bazray

[shaky]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Well the 00z runs are poor across the board really,just too much energy in the northern arm.

Still in wait and see mode but i would be lying if i didn't say alarm bells are beginning to ring..

EC/UKMO which were showing signs of a ridgy Atlantic suddenly look very flat.

We have an excellent profile to our E/SE but getting zero help in the Atlantic..

Fingers crossed we start to see some better charts, soon.

I did mention it yesterday buddy a couple of times!!ensembles can look as good as they want but if operational keeps churning out horrible charts like the one above it just aint gona happen as harsh as it sounds!!eventually the ensmbles will follow the op no matter how huge the percentage on cold!!even the high has been flattened at 144 hours compared to yesterdays runs!!what ticks me off is when theres mild showing in the ensembles even if its only 30 percent it always happens!!