Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[jethro]

I thought my time of holding my breath, peeking through my fingers, wondering if it's safe to look yet, was done for tonight after an hour of Luther and then I came on here..... The tension's as bad, are we really going to be blessed this time, will nirvana finally happen? I don't know who or what to drool over the most, Idris Elba or deep cold charts.

It's all too much, going for a lie down.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, jethro said:

I thought my time of holding my breath, peeking through my fingers, wondering if it's safe to look yet, was done for tonight after an hour of Luther and then I came on here..... The tension's as bad, are we really going to be blessed this time, will nirvana finally happen? I don't know who or what to drool over the most, Idris Elba or deep cold charts.

It's all too much, going for a lie down.

Given the long winded saga to get to cold better sticking with Idris ! Great to see Luther back . 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

PTB 4 - The Northerly...

 

yes this is the coldest member for my area with -13.2 850s 

 

P10 gets us towards an easterly 

 

 leading towards  

 

[jethro]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Given the long winded saga to get to cold better sticking with Idris ! Great to see Luther back . 

Sodding shortwaves are like Alice, pop up out of nowhere, never know what havoc they're going to cause!

[Nick F]

To think that the GFS was continually until a few days ago forecasting a return to zonality in early Jan continuing well into FI, now it and the EC, which had picked up the blocked signal earlier, has a blocked Atlantic deep  into FI now. Does beg the question the usefulness of micro analysing and being swayed by each 4 daily GFS runs!

now the 10hPa reversal has occurred and in the starting data, I think the EC, with its greater resolution of layers higher up in the atmosphere, will be the one to watch with regards to better handling of strat-trop coupling over coming days, already think we are seeing an imprint showing from the model from the split strat daughter vortices over Europe and NE Canada with the strat vortices collocated with z500 cold pools, certainly Euro one.

However, GFS seems to have had the upper hand at handling MJO wave, with EC playing catch up by amplifying the wave in a more coherent orbit through 7/8 on RMM plots rather than taking into COD.

[ICE COLD]

There are some real stonkers now appearing in the GEFS . Look at these bad boys . 

Edited January 2, 2019 by ICE COLD

[Backtrack]

3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

yes this is the coldest member for my area with -13.2 850s 

 

P10 gets us towards an easterly 

 

 leading towards  

 

There's clutching straws and then there's looking through the individual members of each run, lol. 

 

I do think that the SSW will send us into the freezer but i don't think it will be until at least week 3 of this month. February and March could well be shaping up to be cold yet again. Models showing more promise. But nothing particularly mouth watering translating down to the surface just yet. 

I also think it's likely that the colder runs now filtering through will be pushed back and back until we hit that third week. 

Edited January 2, 2019 by Backtrack

[ITSY]

Look at these GEFS anomaly charts. Something certainly brewing in there. Remember that everyone is saying mid jan onwards, so this is the timeframe we should be looking at for changes in the hemispheric pattern, regardless of what each individual run shows at this point for the UK. Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic Blocking all showing up here 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

There's clutching straws and then there's looking through the individual members of each run, lol. 

 

I do do think that the SSW will send us into the freezer but i don't think it will be until at least week 3 of this month. February and March could well be shaping up to be cold yet again. Models showing more promise. But nothing particularly mouth watering translating down to the surface just yet. 

I use the GEFS to look for possible changing / developing weather patterns as I have mentioned in the past and to me it looks like the majority are still leaning towards a cold pattern as we head through January and given the Stratospheric events and more favourable MJO phase(s) that we look like we are heading toward  it certainly looks positive from a cold and possibly snowy perspective  

 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=&lat=56.108780&lon=-3.162020&ville=

 

[Duane S.]

33 minutes ago, Nick F said:

To think that the GFS was continually until a few days ago forecasting a return to zonality in early Jan continuing well into FI, now it and the EC, which had picked up the blocked signal earlier, has a blocked Atlantic deep  into FI now. Does beg the question the usefulness of micro analysing and being swayed by each 4 daily GFS runs!

now the 10hPa reversal has occurred and in the starting data, I think the EC, with its greater resolution of layers higher up in the atmosphere, will be the one to watch with regards to better handling of strat-trop coupling over coming days, already think we are seeing an imprint showing from the model from the split strat daughter vortices over Europe and NE Canada with the strat vortices collocated with z500 cold pools, certainly Euro one.

However, GFS seems to have had the upper hand at handling MJO wave, with EC playing catch up by amplifying the wave in a more coherent orbit through 7/8 on RMM plots rather than taking into COD.

Yes Nick, agree with all of that.

Having the SSW physically underway and into the starting data is definitely going to make a difference

EC, although will still be all over the place itself, definitely the preferred model to watch over the coming days for the reasons you stated. 

And I also favour the GEFS over the EC in reference to MJO forecast. It destroyed the Euro model last February, going from 5 through to 7. It nailed the huge amplification in the Pacific very early on and stuck with it, whilst the ECM slowly adjusted as it went through 6. It seems whatever was the accuracy issue back then still exists.

[WhiteFox]

3 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

Fair point but depends on your point of view. For me I like weather.. storms, thundery showers etc. Cold and very dry is boring and becomes very tedious when you consider it's been dry and mild for over 2 weeks. It's time for winter proper now!

I know what you mean: anticyclonic gloom is the worst of all winter weather especially when coupled with lack of daylight.

However, cold and frosty is perfect IF a cold and snowy spell does follow. Get the ground temperatures right down and then any snow that does fall sticks straight away. During BFTE part one in February, all snow stuck (although there was melt in any sunshine). BFTE part two came immediately after a day of double digit temperatures and it took a good 24-36 hours before the ground cooled enough for snow to lie (at least on roads and paths - grass responded more quickly).

A period of hard frosts (surface cold - none of this "faux cold" nonsense!) is perfect before a cold spell.

[ArHu3]

 

Boom and that only at 120h

 

3 days ago there was no downwelling to the surface at all, yesterday only at day 8 and today it's at day 5 already 

Edited January 2, 2019 by ArHu3

[Cheshire Freeze]

16 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

 

Boom and that only at 120h

 

3 days ago there was no downwelling to the surface at all, yesterday only at day 8 and today it's at day 5 already 

It is gradually beginning to be reflected in the trop output. Only a day or two back, ridging was being railroaded by a strong jet and strong trop PV. Now the ridges are beginning to look like a knife to butter.

[Roger J Smith]

GEM getting close to a very good pattern by end of its ten day run, cold slowly massing over north-central Europe, Atlantic high gradually retreating, just need the trough between them to collapse and it would turn from cool to very cold quite easily. (the details over the first seven days are fairly similar to the recent GFS scenario and milder to about the 8th before cold builds again). 

Would prefer to see something more dramatic but both 1895 and 1947 went into their most severe phase around the 20th so we have no reason to rush into this. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Trop PV starting to struggle by day 12 on this run- Arctic pressure on the rise

Edited January 2, 2019 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

Drat- wish this run went further- we'd see brutal cold plunge SE behind that diving trough, aided by N Atlantic/Arctic heights combo!

[ArHu3]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Drat- wish this run went further- we'd see brutal cold plunge SE behind that diving trough, aided by N Atlantic/Arctic heights combo!

Boring runs from gem and gfs (and icon but it ends to soon) this morning but I expect ecmwf to give us some eye candy earlier then expected judging from the Berlin strat surprise I posted earlier 

[Ali1977]

Only 4 decent GEFS overnight (to day 11), I really expected big things on the evening and night runs but it wasn’t to be!! Strat is still playing ball with an official SSW, and no change in METO update so hopefully things pick up during the day as the SSW starts ramping up. This is still a decent mean chart at 336, heights building over the pole.

Edit - deep FI still has bags of good cold charts

Edited January 2, 2019 by Ali1977

[Seasonality]

Just for fun, but perturbation 11 shows it getting slightly chilly for my location. 

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

after the Xmas  break  in fantasy world can  the gfs  see something  coming!!!

[GeordieX9v]

No complaints about this for NE England.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?mode=0&code=0&ech=192&map=&runpar

could get interesting   gfs  has  us  in the cold

[GeordieX9v]

Plenty heights building up north

[Duane S.]

Further to the accerated 5 day chart posted above, showing increased downwelling of reversed winds into the trop, D10 is a beauty...

I get the feeling we are going to see a massive shift and drop into mid latitude of a substantial part of the vortex later in the month, think 1985.

[GeordieX9v]

Stonker northerly incoming.