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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

T252 hrs..  i hang my head .

Possibly showers down North Sea facing coasts sharp temperature drop by day and night.

19011206_0118.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

A very cold and dry 18z..

Frost a plenty for many ..

Not really seeing much evidence to support Exeters unsettled phase..

To be fair I don't think too many are looking for frost at this stage in Winter. Esp with the background signals looking so good!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Some very low dew points later this week and the weekend on 18z..

image.thumb.png.a6307aa49aad4ec6e3e56c45f46a3dfc.png

image.thumb.png.880ac52b39ca29f9e087e893aa0df261.png

 

Yes, pity there isn't some PPN showing at the same time!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Some very low dew points later this week and the weekend on 18z..

image.thumb.png.a6307aa49aad4ec6e3e56c45f46a3dfc.png

image.thumb.png.880ac52b39ca29f9e087e893aa0df261.png

 

I think u expect to see lower dewpoints during the night but what about during the day northwest!!got any charts for them!!

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Some very low dew points later this week and the weekend on 18z..

image.thumb.png.a6307aa49aad4ec6e3e56c45f46a3dfc.png

image.thumb.png.880ac52b39ca29f9e087e893aa0df261.png

 

Pretty typical overnight dew points.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

To be fair I don't think too many are looking for frost at this stage in Winter. Esp with the background signals looking so good!

 

1 minute ago, shaky said:

I think u expect to see lower dewpoints during the night but what about during the day northwest!!got any charts for them!!

image.thumb.png.314d1c95920ba5697ddb898c97fc6b12.png

image.thumb.png.7fddbd2c3145b0ef283af75ed19b5588.png

image.thumb.png.f251df18df96590d401539d0b2b5fe64.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

image.thumb.png.314d1c95920ba5697ddb898c97fc6b12.png

image.thumb.png.7fddbd2c3145b0ef283af75ed19b5588.png

image.thumb.png.f251df18df96590d401539d0b2b5fe64.png

Wow!!!!that is low!!!could be down to some freezing fog maybe!thats gona feel seriously cold with a frost sticking around during the day!!

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Here’s the T240 ECM clusters , pic the brains out of them . 

EB8BF493-306C-4613-BA94-55097A070B32.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Neg dews return later in the run after the weekend..

I'm not saying i like the run, but its cold at times and very dry, which beats wind and rain..

Fair point but depends on your point of view. For me I like weather.. storms, thundery showers etc. Cold and very dry is boring and becomes very tedious when you consider it's been dry and mild for over 2 weeks. It's time for winter proper now!

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
8 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

To be fair I don't think too many are looking for frost at this stage in Winter. Esp with the background signals looking so good!

A frosty spell before any real cold spell with snow is something I've always loved . If it were to work out that way. Sets the mood.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Fair point but depends on your point of view. For me I like weather.. storms, thundery showers etc. Cold and very dry is boring and becomes very tedious when you consider it's been dry and mild for over 2 weeks. It's time for winter proper now!

I don't disagree with any of that JS, in truth, EC 12z aside, i haven't been at all impressed with this evenings offerings -

Still expecting things to start looking better soon..

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
17 minutes ago, Evening Star said:

Pretty typical overnight dew points.

I wouldn't consider -9 dew points ‘pretty typical’ 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
21 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

To be fair I don't think too many are looking for frost at this stage in Winter.

I absolutely am..

After the wettest November and December I have recorded and not a single sub-zero minimum temperature either, the chart below is pure eye candy for some.

viewimage.thumb.png.7e66f4635e40badabf2625778e81a2ec.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

GEFS still decent right at the end although the very early cold all but snuffed out now, eps not great it has to be said.

Trop / surface im talking here, strat looking better with each op run.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS still decent right at the end although the very early cold all but snuffed out now, eps not great it has to be said.

Trop / surface im talking here, strat looking better with each op run.

Yep GEFS is excellent , a lot of blocking now showing up with some belters thrown in

Edited by Banbury
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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

Yes please..

BFE82C16-3ECE-46B1-AEE1-4C31E0572D3F.thumb.png.839a0e490eed139f5b5b1069505fe966.png

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