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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Which leads me to wonder if it’s broadly the right solution for 5/7 days further on ............

if it’s the only run in 51 which downwells pretty much straight away, how likely is that ? Yes, the ec op has more layers in the strat then the eps but they still have plenty. 

It's definitely the run that echoes the stratosphere the best. 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The only possibly reasonable reason (ha) that I can think of for the ECM 12z doing what it did is that it's the only run with enough resolution in the upper stratosphere to respond sufficiently to the vortex split getting underway.

However, I'd be surprised if the modelling was so poor at anticipating this before the observed data came in. So it's a shoulder shrug from me!

Generally, the progression seems very plausible to me, but the pace is suspiciously fast. Similar HLB patterns can be more sensibly anticipated for the midpoint of the month IMO - unless we see momentum build on a quicker response tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

Noted difference between EPS and GEM/GEFS over handling of Pacific trough and downstream ridge over Alaska. GEM/GEFS more amplified on the trough and less flat across the North Atlantic.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Delete - incorrect reading....

Edited by Catacol
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
5 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Noted difference between EPS and GEM/GEFS over handling of Pacific trough and downstream ridge over Alaska. GEM/GEFS more amplified on the trough and less flat across the North Atlantic.

That pesky MJO handling again by the sounds of that. EPS being  v e r y  slow to catch on to the SSW tropical feedback for some reason.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

And for once a flat atlantic trajectory would work in cold favour by helping promote the undercut. Let's hope GFS continues to make a mess of its pacific modelling...

I assume Stewart is referencing the eps rather than the op .....flat atantic = no wedge .........

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I assume Stewart is referencing the eps rather than the op .....flat atantic = no wedge .........

Ha - yes - EPS. Read more carefully.... ECM op likes the flat trajectory though. Encourages squeeze of heights north.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Doesn’t look like the pub run is in the mood .....

The pub run is only ever in the mood when it's wrong so thank goodness for that.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
13 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Game over at 168 #BitDramatic

A1FE0B94-BD95-4613-BA41-7A70C043F520.png

Your opportunity to mention the lobe of death just for a change.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, lassie23 said:

Haha, that made me LOL..

No, i dont think thats the case Lassie, mid month still 2 weeks away, lets see where we are in another 3 or 4 days ..

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I'm not so quick to write off the 18z, might not have built the first ridge, but the next one looks like it could deliver, T210:

image.thumb.jpg.1202e4a3c56b7874d604c0228e2ca8e6.jpg

I think the details are not important at his range, it is the evidence of possibilities that the runs are now starting to show, post SSW (just), interesting to watch how the runs develop over the next few days.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

Not necessarily, angle isn't great but this is still retrievable.

image.thumb.png.0a0bbada3165f315401fba3c88496c63.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not necessarily, angle isn't great but this is still retrievable.

image.thumb.png.0a0bbada3165f315401fba3c88496c63.png

No split vortex is going to make that tough before the very back end ......

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

No split vortex is going to make that tough before the very back end ......

I was hoping the ridge was going to be sharper than it is and split it rather than reliance on the SSW doing it from top down.  Arctic surface high starting to appear at 276 though.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Any road, the pain of the vortex is again plain to see on GFS 18z at T252, the loudest scream coming from the left (from its point of view) of its gaping mouth:

image.thumb.jpg.06b4b4c5138ed8cb43d1ca102bd710ba.jpg

Die monster!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The land that weather forgot !

The GFS 18 hrs run has about as much excitement as a WI bake sale!

Truly coma inducing !

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Any road, the pain of the vortex is again plain to see on GFS 18z at T252, the loudest scream coming from the left (from its point of view) of its gaping mouth:

image.thumb.jpg.06b4b4c5138ed8cb43d1ca102bd710ba.jpg

Die monster!

Not stormy and therefore does not fit with the professional view. Probably another gfs for the bin.

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