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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I guess it would have been a bit much to expect the mean to follow the Op. 

EC533307-03C6-4ED9-8A3B-281466EF77A8.thumb.png.8e138b161a049a40de74bdc66329e719.png

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Are we in the very rare situation of the Internet era, where for the first time we can confidently countdown nirvana charts to 0? 

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I guess it would have been a bit much to expect the mean to follow the Op. 

EC533307-03C6-4ED9-8A3B-281466EF77A8.thumb.png.8e138b161a049a40de74bdc66329e719.png

I think the 1030 contour on the mean at T240 over the pole is a significant positive, though.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

thought ECM mean was good looking at it first but its not that much better than the 0z if at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
6 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Are we in the very rare situation of the Internet era, where for the first time we can confidently countdown nevarna charts to 0? 

Try no!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I hope the op is off track here otherwise could be disappointment.

58068C1D-6876-4E1A-BA58-41D755C2091E.png

Exactly what i was sayin earlier and most probably its on the right page!!i hope it isnt but it will be cos thats how it goes 90 percent of the times!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Much better ECM tonight than the 0z if it's longevity of any up coming cold spell that your looking for. In my experience Scandi blocks tend to much less stable than Greenland/Iceland ones plus you Already have the jet way south and heading for Genoa. Lovely jubbly.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
16 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Are we in the very rare situation of the Internet era, where for the first time we can confidently countdown nirvana charts to 0? 

That's a no from me Bob.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

December was a huge disappointment as east shunt was a pain....it’s all moving west .....deep winter beckons.....wary of course but the cold track is getting sniffed 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It's hard not to feel a tingle of excitement for mid Jan onwards when the GEFS is continuing to show charts like these...hopefully one of those severe ones will be for us!!❄️⛄⛄⛄

snow_336_ps_slp.png

snow_360_ps_slp.png

snow_384_ps_slp.png

2m_maxtemp_360_ps_slp.png

850tempuk_360_ps_slp.png

2m_maxtemp_384_ps_slp.png

850tempuk_384_ps_slp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

HNY cold weather nerds!

Dont want to put a dampener on things but the ext EPS are rather underwhelming.  No HLB in our sector just troughing to the north and north east. @bluearmy - what’s your take?

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
On 31/12/2018 at 15:12, Jason M said:

Now the SSW effects are taking hold on the Polar Vortex, its perhaps no surprise to see the models in  the longer timeframe churn out more appetising charts for anyone looking for something colder and sustained further down the line - i.e. higher lattitude blocking.

The thinking so far has been for the effects to take quite sometime to downwell - however, the ECM today is having none of that - and it must therefore be expecting a much quicker response - from anticyclonic to cold with no altantic interlude, unlike GFS which continues to pump more energy into the northern arm of the jet, suppressing amplification or any shortwave activity from enabling heights to migrate into mid atlantic and eventually join hands with heights building out from the Pole in a more immediate fashion - which I believe is the trigger evolution to any sustained cold period this coming month.

The signals are exceptionally promising on the first day of 2019 for something much colder in the heart of winter - not been able to say that since 2013.

Lets see if ECM continues the theme of today in future runs. I'm expecting rapid developments over the days ahead - the westerlies could be scrubbed out altogether - we are already seeing signs this might happen - with the current high holding its own for quite a significant length of time - a sure sign the atlantic is really struggling and down on its heals easy pickings for a knock out blow.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
19 minutes ago, mulzy said:

HNY cold weather nerds!

Dont want to put a dampener on things but the ext EPS are rather underwhelming.  No HLB in our sector just troughing to the north and north east. @bluearmy - what’s your take?

All looks good to around T-192 but then literally collapses and is replaced with troughing. No HLB at all in the later stages. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
25 minutes ago, mulzy said:

HNY cold weather nerds!

Dont want to put a dampener on things but the ext EPS are rather underwhelming.  No HLB in our sector just troughing to the north and north east. @bluearmy - what’s your take?

the extended eps have been less consistent, run to run, than usual. I wouldn’t be overly concerned by one run (even though it fits with Exeter’s mid month mobile spell) but then again, if this is the way forward, then it’s not a shock either. It wouldn’t be the first time that the op has been about 5/7 days progressive on the correct pattern .....going back to feb, the ec op gave us some nirvana end of run output for around 18/20th feb when the nwp in general picked up on the reversal ...... turned out to be five/six days ahead of itself  but it was sniffing the broad scale correct solution ......

looking at the eps NH probability slp charts, doesn’t look like more than max 10% chance that the op is right at day 10.  Arctic high stays the other side of the pole throughout the suite. 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom

ECM still keeping things interesting from 11 onwards. Is this a trend? tune in next time.

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Some posts have been moved to the 'chat & banter' thread this evening. Before posting please consider which thread is more appropriate. Many thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, ArHu3 said:

 

Which leads me to wonder if it’s broadly the right solution for 5/7 days further on ............

if it’s the only run in 51 which downwells pretty much straight away, how likely is that ? Yes, the ec op has more layers in the strat then the eps but they still have plenty. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

Remember that there is a separate thread for tweets please.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Which leads me to wonder if it’s broadly the right solution for 5/7 days further on ............

if it’s the only run in 51 which downwells pretty much straight away, how likely is that ? Yes, the ec op has more layers in the strat then the eps but they still have plenty. 

 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019010100_228.

 

 

Which strange because this morning oper and control had plenty of support 

Edited by ArHu3
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Just now, bluearmy said:

Which leads me to wonder if it’s broadly the right solution for 5/7 days further on ............

if it’s the only run in 51 which downwells pretty much straight away, how likely is that ? Yes, the ec op has more layers in the strat then the eps but they still have plenty. 

Or could the op be leading the way , it did in the feb/March beast and the ENS followed suit after . But as you say it may have the right evolution on the op but just not as quick as the op shows ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Crisp Cold Days
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
1 hour ago, Bazray said:

I wonder if New Years Day 2019 will be the day the scales tipped in our favour, before then lots of waiting and disappointment. Maybe now the SSW has happened and with the vortex splitting the models will only get better from now, and the excitement will build in this place, we have waited patiently and deserve it! Reminds me a little of what happened earlier in Feb / March 2018 after the SSW the models got progressively more bullish by the day and would not back down.

Yes and to potentially receive it a month earlier in the winter could make for some very exciting and interesting times a head.... I remember all the talk on the model thread as the last beast was getting increasingly closer people saying “ If ONLY it was a month sooner etc etc “ and it was still epic... The second half of this winter has all the ingredients to be a very memorable one. Let just hope these ingredients continue to mix correctly.. 

Happy New Year everyone..

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