Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Yawn!:lazy: - get out the ol' perturbations, let's be honest how often do the best one's come off?

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, ArHu3 said:

February 14th 1979

I was -4 years old ?‍♂️

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, Decemberof2010 said:

Ptb 12 gets a bit chilly 

 

 

Careful you’ll get told off

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

12z para not as amplified as the 6z but still looking good on the nhp.what will the 12z EC bring??

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
6 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Am I in the right place? 

Capture.thumb.PNG.fde1a4e03556d333a653f91cdcbd5562.PNG

If you're crazy yes!!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
12 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yawn!:lazy: - get out the ol' perturbations, let's be honest how often do the best one's come off?

Well never given they are incorrect at T+0!

Good use of perturbations is:

1. Look for how many support the operational run. 

2. Look for clusters indicating possible trends.

Individual perturbations not hugely useful as they are low resolution and start off with tweaked initial data.

So I'm with you Froze.  However, pointing that one out I think is more for the holey mother imagine if that came off point rather than anything else.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
25 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yawn!:lazy: - get out the ol' perturbations, let's be honest how often do the best one's come off?

Are we back to hunting instead of waiting again

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
1 minute ago, Stonethecrows said:

Why is it that people with the more cold sounding screen names are mostly the most negative posters on here? It's like supporting Man Utd but cheering when Liverpool score....very odd

I'll buck the trend...….cold is coming!!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

Why is it that people with the more cold sounding screen names are mostly the most negative posters on here? It's like supporting Man Utd but cheering when Liverpool score....very odd

No its not at all, There's a difference between wanting and predicting.

You can want your team to win but think the other team will.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Definite improved GEFS with P12 a corker (Hello Jan 1987 )

image.thumb.png.da8e1792f3ffc37ed6e007ba9c776a68.pngimage.thumb.png.dd78e85efa75facc810021d2d04ed63a.png

o5z

image.thumb.png.efd94f817e290be6434ba85fd7449891.png

12z

image.thumb.png.a07ab8cb0319d840690a36d61b5efc0f.png

Edited by Purga
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.

None of the effects of the SSW where ever really predicted to come into range until about the 15th, finally starting to appear on the models now, exciting times ahead for coldies. Looking good at the moment, fingers crossed. Happy new year 

Edited by Bazray
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good evening all

My first post of 2019 I wish you all a Happy New year. 

We continue from where we left off last year any news on the ECM?

our search for our winter ❄️ wonderland is to continue

speak soon peeps take care

kind regards

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
51 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I was -4 years old ?‍♂️

I think I've got a picture of it, @karlos1983

Toddler in the snow

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...