Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Man With Beard]

Look I don't think the extended is without hope. Look at EPS D12

Most trough anomalies are east of its st this stage. That puts us in the zone for potential northerlies IF the jet relents to our north. Now I think the models are suffering a bit of a meltdown over the Atlantic jet at the moment. All I'm seeing is the downgrading of the Atlantic between D6 and D10. Will it then ramp up again, as some ensembles would like it to do? I think that supposition is very doubtful. 

I would suggest we are not far from a better Atlantic block developing, which would change everything. Tonight's GFS, by T360, doesn't fall far from that idea. 

Edited December 31, 2018 by Man With Beard

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Look I don't think the extended is without hope. Look at EPS D12

Most trough anomalies are east of its st this stage. That puts us in the zone for potential northerlies IF the jet relents to our north. Now I think the models are suffering a bit of a meltdown over the Atlantic jet at the moment. All I'm seeing is the downgrading of the Atlantic between D6 and D10. Will it then ramp up again, as some ensembles would like it to do? I think that supposition is very doubtful. 

I would suggest we are not far from a better Atlantic block developing, which would change everything. 

That 4th cluster growing from a few days ago - slowly but surely.

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thats actually EC46 ish - just a week earlier in timing!!!!

I'm sticking-ish to my timetable, I thought 10 Jan, maybe push it to 15 Jan, we should  see something by then, if it's going to happen.  Fascinating model watching this slow evolution along side the SSW...no one with absolute certainty how it will pan out, 75% chance for coldies! that's as good as it gets this far out!

[Tim Bland]

Key difference on the 18z GFS was the LP / short wave dropping south around t+180 which forced more WAA towards Greenland and lowered pressure to our south ...

Edited December 31, 2018 by Tim Bland

[Dancerwithwings]

GFS 300h + Is it plausible.....of course it is and after what us lot as at to put up with....bloody right it is....Happy New Year

Edited December 31, 2018 by Dancerwithwings

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Key difference on the 18z GFS was the LP sloping south around t+180 which forced more WAA towards Greenland and lowered pressure to our south 

The only problem with that run is your reliant on the dreaded trigger shortwave at serious range!!

[Mike Poole]

That's actually an uncategorised purple alien species incoming from the north east at T384 on GFS, never seen one of those before, yikes!

[BARRY]

23 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I never doubted it for a second....honest

It's looking better cold is showing it's hand at last

[Purga]

Happy New Year!!

[mountain shadow]

13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That's actually an uncategorised purple alien species incoming from the north east at T384 on GFS, never seen one of those before, yikes!

Marginal for snow I would have thought.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 31, 2018 by mountain shadow

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Marginal for snow I would have thought.

 

 

Yes, in NW portugal.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Marginal for snow I would have thought.

 

 

Such dry wit 

[feb1991blizzard]

BOOM!

[Nick F]

Happy New Year everyone!

I increasingly believe in a big change for the better for cold and snow lovers from or just before mid month / 15th Jan. It’s an excruciating wait, but all pointers are for a big upheaval in the z500 pattern in 10-15 days, not only from the downwelling effects of the SSW but also co-incident MJO wave into colder phases, not to mention the big fluxes created by AAM and El Niño jet extensions over the N PAC.

it has become apparent that ECMWF has and still is erroneous in depicting the MJO passage compared to GFS, so this has the implications of the poorer output we’ve seen, with the flatter upper flow, GFS perhaps more on the money with MJO induced amplification in concert with SSW impacts, though operational runs were until recently too keen to cancel the easterly strat winds, but now keeping them easterly.

No QTR, but the SSW impact coinciding with MJO colder phases surely going severely compromise the SPV for good perhaps for 2nd half of winter, cold and snow impacts likely to be seen over Europe before USA, as below EPS T+360 chart shows

 

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BOOM!

Boom Boom

[Dancerwithwings]

5 minutes ago, BARRY said:

It's looking better cold is showing it's hand at last

Op was the main.....perb no8 is pudding 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BOOM!

Mean anomalies at day 16

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Boom Boom

Yes, even better down south!!!,

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Mean anomalies at day 16

Yes, some stonking output today, Strat FI much improved to the point that if it verified, really could be looking at bye bye vortex and hello blocking for the rest of winter.

[markw2680]

Happy new year to my fellow snaw freaks  

let’s hope the latest gfs comes to us all in the next few weeks and gives us the big freeze with massive snow drifts think we all deserve after this last week of gloom.

lets start to wax the sledges ready for the blizzards..........we can dream as it’s the end of the year

[BARRY]

Happy Newyear to all at Netweather

 

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Boom Boom

Hello Steve / F1991 I’m not sure I understand this table! What do the numbers mean and the columns? Is it another way of articulating the 850s in table format instead of the lone graphs? 

[Mucka]

6 hours ago, Mucka said:

Above are the last 4 GFSp Op runs. There does seem to be a trend toward a more amplified pattern and Atlantic blocking..

If that continued as a step progression (unlikely but hey) then we would have a nice Atlantic block and cold by tomorrow evenings run for the same period.  

Continuing the progression tonight's GFSp 18z

Notice how the ridge gets stronger, backs slightly West and gets more amplified with each run.

If the sequence continues through tomorrow we will be in business but it may well be have to wait until just after mid month for a blocked cold pattern to establish (should we get one)

PS

HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL, HAVE A WONDERFUL SNOWY 2019

 

Edited December 31, 2018 by Mucka

[Premiere Neige]

39 minutes ago, colonelks said:

That 384 chart is almost as ridiculous as me meeting a fellow Netweather cold hunter on the train back from Derby in February.

If we manage to get close to that then happy New Year!

 

I met one last Sunday in Aldi car park repairing my car under the guise of an AA patrol man!

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Hello Steve / F1991 I’m not sure I understand this table! What do the numbers mean and the columns? Is it another way of articulating the 850s in table format instead of the lone graphs? 

Yes its the ENS filtered to ascending value in table format -

You can view it per scenario as well - its a quicker way of finding the cold runs !