Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

happy  new  year  all   is  the  gfs  sniffing something  coming  our  way!!

gfs-2-384.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.

What is noteworthy about this Festive weather is the lack of rain and the attendant pressure stagnation.Oh and as it looks set to continue I would suggest whether one is looking for cold or otherwise,it has the potential to be historical.Had the orientation been further north etc etc then it may have been very cold just now.The best to you all and I look forward to the conclusion of this essentially blocked pattern in remaining weeks of Meteorological winter.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

This shows just how much the ECM ensembles have moved towards NW ridging in the past 5 days. That trough anomaly at D15 looks like being a car crash of a forecast. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018122612_360.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018123100_240.

If this is SSW related, can we expect further amplification in the days beyond?

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean not nice viewing tho..

Methinks someone need brew some fresh coffee?:drunk-emoji:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean not nice viewing tho..

Just more horrible charts, and variations of ugliness from beginning to end!:nonono:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, snowray said:

Just more horrible charts, and variations of ugliness from beginning to end!

Well i thought the op was very nice TBH..

Certainly very cold for many..

Looking at the mean though there must be a lot members sinking the block quickly...

All seems very uncertain, think we need to see some upgrades tomorrow..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean not nice viewing tho..

can’t rememeber the last time i saw a decent Ecm operational or mean chart,hopefully that will change soon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This shows just how much the ECM ensembles have moved towards NW ridging in the past 5 days. That trough anomaly at D15 looks like being a car crash of a forecast. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018122612_360.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018123100_240.

If this is SSW related, can we expect further amplification in the days beyond?

 

One would expect something like you have found re the initial zonal slow down but once that is within the models sights, you would hope it might cope better ..... suspect the downwelling wave could catch it out though, especially the extended eps .....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i thought the op was very nice TBH..

Certainly very cold for many..

Looking at the mean though there must be a lot members sinking the block quickly...

All seems very uncertain, think we need to see some upgrades tomorrow..

Just potential for now NWS, we desperately need more upgrades. If the downwelling is taking longer, possibly due to the second warming, then a response might not turn up until late January, or even early February. We get an early split and then this happens.

gfsnh-10-198.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold with frost & snow in winter; hot and dry in summer
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL

Could we see upgrades from here ? Day 8 on this evenings ECM. The high sinks a little days 9 and 10 and we loose the easterly feed into the south but still very cold I suspect.

The weather on the ground has been mind numbingly boring over the holiday break but model viewing and the commentary from many of the members in here has been absolutely fascinating and this will surely continue over the next few weeks as the SSW and other forcing's play out. Its a great time to be part of a weather forum so thank you and best wishes to everyone for a happy, healthy and snowy 2019 !

ECM - 31.12.2018 ecmt850_192.png

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
32 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Reverse psychology......I hope. I’ll make a new post tomorrow.  I am anticipating that the pull back west of the HP will occur to allow the arctic blast from displaced PV, but December sniffed then failed. So I’m obviously wary but still believe some serious weather is coming....but am aware that it could pile down too Far East and U.K. miss .....again

HNY ALL

BFTP

You could be right but not the way you're think. If the high sticks around too much longer we could be heading for water shortages next summer. ECM looking dry right through the run the GFS when it makes it mind up is still on the dry side. The hunt for cold will have to satisfied with frost for now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Uncertainty? .........what uncertainty!

eps, geps, naefs means for day 10 - naefs skewed a tad with the amplification by the gefs 

B9815367-E6BF-45D2-8909-A32D64B643D2.thumb.jpeg.05a2770e403025aa82a0d7de0b0f1c61.jpeg 7317772E-573A-4D38-A53D-5BFD5B486FC0.thumb.jpeg.05132621dc8848713aedbe997ad82d22.jpeg 2DEDC070-D1B5-4CB5-B5BD-0D22C5258677.thumb.jpeg.ec78e417dfb573c3dc3b41e521337eae.jpeg

 

 

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Uncertainty? .........what uncertainty!

eps, geps, naefs means for day 10 - naefs skewed a tad with the amplification by the gefs 

B9815367-E6BF-45D2-8909-A32D64B643D2.thumb.jpeg.05a2770e403025aa82a0d7de0b0f1c61.jpeg 7317772E-573A-4D38-A53D-5BFD5B486FC0.thumb.jpeg.05132621dc8848713aedbe997ad82d22.jpeg 2DEDC070-D1B5-4CB5-B5BD-0D22C5258677.thumb.jpeg.ec78e417dfb573c3dc3b41e521337eae.jpeg

 

 

Lets hope tomorrow brings better ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Good night all. Sorry about the video (I couldn't get rid of it!)...Happy New Year to you all!:drunk-emoji:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

Happy new year all. 

Wait until the 5th Jan for decent FI charts! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The modelling is generally drifting towards the solution offered in the extended Meto forecasts ......... 

Nah! Ecm control would surely disagree? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The modelling is generally drifting towards the solution offered in the extended Meto forecasts ......... 

18z looks like it might be too..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

First just a quick state of play update from the 12s, JMA, GEM, GFS. FV3, ECM all at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.478a3d3295039f84ae5e6d8a988e2ae8.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ab32c8dcdab04d027a7e7032a87fe216.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.dbe464d611be72d1a117a5bca4ced309.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.586e96fd5f84f94fe254842ad08321da.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.9e5cb197a432bf4db31f65db15a1d574.jpg

Discounting the high heights over Greenland as an artefact (of something) on the JMA, the GFS is poor, the others  give promise for something more special to emerge once the models get the SSW.

My recollection of the Feb SSW was that the model output converged on the actual solution shortly after the technical SSW, i.e. when actual data sensing the nature of the wind reversal, gave the models an idea of the exact state of the strat rather than a modelled one.  It will be the same this time.  The models wills converge very soon, on cold?  That still can't be claimed, how's 75% chance?  The winds reverse on New Years Day.

Happy new year, everyone, ❄️ my new year message to those partying in city centres is 'return to your constituencies and prepare for snowmageddon'.  Might be a few days late, blame Network Rail!

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, Mike Poole said:

First just a quick state of play update from the 12s, JMA, GEM, GFS. FV3, ECM all at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.478a3d3295039f84ae5e6d8a988e2ae8.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ab32c8dcdab04d027a7e7032a87fe216.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.dbe464d611be72d1a117a5bca4ced309.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.586e96fd5f84f94fe254842ad08321da.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.9e5cb197a432bf4db31f65db15a1d574.jpg

Discounting the high heights over Greenland as an artefact (of something) on the JMA, the GFS is poor, the others  give promise for something more special to emerge once the models get the SSW.

My recollection of the Feb SSW was that the model output converged on the actual solution shortly after the technical SSW, i.e. when actual data sensing the nature of the wind reversal, gave the models an idea of the exact state of the strat rather than a modelled one.  It will be the same this time.  The models wills converge very soon, on cold?  That still can't be claimed, how's 75% chance?  The winds reverse on New Years Day.

Happy new year, my new year message to those partying in city centres is 'return to your constituencies and prepare for snowmageddon'.  Might be a few days late, blame Network Rail!

I checked a couple weeks ago mike ......the gfs began to play with the scandi ridge in far off fi around 5 days before the reversal at 10 hpa .....2 days before the ssw, ecm day 10 was showing a scandi ridge solution 19th feb ..... turned out to be approx 5 days progressive ........

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

EC46 in line with my thoughts, cool / cold zonality week 3 with some plunges possible transitioning into more blocked week 4.

 

It isn't all that special actually, i dont like that Atlantic trough potential, could that be because the SSW spit wasn't far and wide enough.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 in line with my thoughts, cool / cold zonality week 3 with some plunges possible transitioning into more blocked week 4.

 

It isn't all that special actually, i dont like that Atlantic trough potential, could that be because the SSW spit wasn't far and wide enough.

Haven't seen the charts (don't know why you don't post them?) but that omni present Atlantic trough has been a pain in the back side since the early promise of late November cold. It has served to keep pressure high over Iberia and France. A real winter killer. Apart from the gfs ext ensembles things don't look too good to me tonight. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...