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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Not the 12z I was expecting to be honest, given some of the ensembles from this morning I had expected some improvement this afternoon, seems like we take one step forward and two steps back at the moment, waiting game continues!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Weathizard said:

Not the 12z I was expecting to be honest, given some of the ensembles from this morning I had expected some improvement this afternoon, seems like we take one step forward and two steps back at the moment, waiting game continues!

UKMO better at 144

For now i will go with UKM , GFS much flatter in the Atlantic- over to EC ..

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
6 minutes ago, IDO said:

Hopefully, this trend over the pole is maintained moving forward:

gfsnh-12-210.thumb.png.d127ea1a2d91c8278dbb62253abc5a0b.png

Nice to see this develop in the op.

Next sharper Atlantic Ridge, please!

Absolutely IDO, just a continuation of what the EPS were showing this morning. A massive step forwards and possibly a New Years treat coming from the 12z ECM

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Is that a wee hint of an Arctic ridge, I see nosing down from the pole?

image.thumb.png.d869bc9deadb642e9c4bf90e46f33021.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Is that a wee hint of an Arctic ridge, I see nosing down from the pole?

image.thumb.png.d869bc9deadb642e9c4bf90e46f33021.png

Indeed, kicking and screaming but the op finally comes on board in latter frames. Split vortex twice along the way too

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8A247698-A5B9-420A-B1CD-BF37881B9B37.png

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
45 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Liking UKMO 144 personally- finally some subtle signs of Atlantic becoming 'ridgy'..

Agreed. Looks fairly ridgy at the Pole too if I'm reading the northern hemisphere charts correctly

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Personally not too fussed by the Op, I’m hoping another similarly good set of GEFS as the 06z.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Indeed, kicking and screaming but the op finally comes on board in latter frames. Split vortex twice along the way too

B94471EC-397A-4CA3-A0B7-78B01FB33B1B.png

8A247698-A5B9-420A-B1CD-BF37881B9B37.png

Pot Black!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
15 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Not the 12z I was expecting to be honest, given some of the ensembles from this morning I had expected some improvement this afternoon, seems like we take one step forward and two steps back at the moment, waiting game continues!

The thing is the ensembles can show all the cold they want but if the operational doesnt join the party it just aint happening!!seen all this false rubbish from the ensembles before but the operational doesnt back down and eventually the ensembles follow the op!we could have 95 percent of the other ensembles going for cold but if the op keeps on showing mild its only a matter of time before they back down!!not trying to be to negative here but there really is nothing to get excited about at the moment!!looking forward to a week or so of cold frostty days and nights!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
2 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Indeed, slow getting there but the op finally coming on board in latter frames

 

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8A247698-A5B9-420A-B1CD-BF37881B9B37.png

If is the biggest word in the English language but...

IF that verifies anywhere near like that and IF the HP just south west of Greenland and the Arctic High stop merely making love eyes at each other across Greenland's frozen dance floor and just hook up and actually use that dance floor, then the Met Office forecast would verify... spectacularly. Hope some ensembles sniff similar possibilities out too

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Nice morning in Vancouver . A settled spell of weather for a few days before the next Pacific Low moves in later this week. First picture is looking over English Bay and entrance to Vancouver Harbour. Beyond is Bowen Island and the snow capped peaks in far distance over Upper Squamish and the Sunshine Coastal Region. Second picture was taken yesterday at my cousins home in Osoyoos, Southern Interior of BC. Still hunting for cold for you lot. The charts are very frustrating but that's one heck of a block over the British Isles and I sure the next few days will see some frost. Maybe, it will retrogress quicker than the current models show and open up for some Arctic air in the mix. Meanwhile back in Katschberg they have a 3 day snow event to look forward to from Wednesday thanks to a Arctic outbreak in Central and SE Europe. This follows on the heals of the recent snowfall in the Eastern Alps. Not much comfort to you snow lovers back in Blighty but its thanks to your high pressure block !! Lets hope your turn soon comes.

 C

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Edited by carinthian
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Phew! I think I'll postpone my egg-laying activities until/if/when the Met Office start talking about 'early February'!:drunk:

image.thumb.png.77d4ad818db1bbcb93bf75fde225f069.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

A high degree of variation within GFS ensembles on how amplified the pattern will be upstream day 6 onward, so though it would have been nice to see a GFS Op run go cold I don't think it is that significant at the moment.

There is still room for quite big changes through that period that favour a a more blocked outcome

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

We can never get cross model improvements. It seems to be one improves and the other gets worse .

The UKMO is much better than this mornings offering . Still some troublesome shortwaves but it’s more amplified upstream . The GFS goes the other way and is flatter .

Tonight NCEP will be issuing their January update , although that’s for the USA it will give us a good idea of the forecast upstream pattern .

Theres also the MJO update .

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

We can never get cross model improvements. It seems to be one improves and the other gets worse .

The UKMO is much better than this mornings offering . Still some troublesome shortwaves but it’s more amplified upstream . The GFS goes the other way and is flatter .

Tonight NCEP will be issuing their January update , although that’s for the USA it will give us a good idea of the forecast upstream pattern .

Theres also the MJO update .

GEFS have had 2 solid improvements though today Nick, this one wont turn out quite as good a suite as the 6z but they are both improvements on yesterdays and the 0z.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GEFS 06Z T850 ensembles for Northampton & Aberdeen, which appear to have completely lost the plot?

image.thumb.png.e17749472a76ddfcf9f7fc249dabc003.pngimage.thumb.png.6a8e41c751b55706fff2cd1aba200862.png 

Let's hope that the 12Z Operational is leading the charge?:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS have had 2 solid improvements though today Nick, this one wont turn out quite as good a suite as the 6z but they are both improvements on yesterdays and the 0z.

We do need to see the op runs going with one of those better solutions soon. Hopefully the ECM will go with the UKMO and improve after several underwhelming runs .

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Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

GEFS 06Z T850 ensembles for Northampton & Aberdeen, which appear to have completely lost the plot?

image.thumb.png.e17749472a76ddfcf9f7fc249dabc003.pngimage.thumb.png.6a8e41c751b55706fff2cd1aba200862.png 

Let's hope that the 12Z Operational is leading the charge?:cold:

... although interestingly on the charts you show, the mean looks more attractive than the operational!

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