Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s interesting....I just saw a very informative piece on twitter which explained how important our trop ridge is wrt the split which occurs in the strat vortex ...... that split which will allow a greeny high IF/WHEN upstream buckles to allow it ........

Makes sense to me..

Personally i'm expecting  the 12zs will be much better later today..(And Exeter will remain 'onside' prior to that).

[Leon1]

I'm not losing any hope at all yet. There is still loads of scatter in the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles. It happened last February where nothing was showing for a cold spell and that was really worrying people because it was almost the end of winter and suddenly, one model latched onto cold then they all quickly followed suit. There is a time lag also so we wouldn't be expecting this cold spell due to the SSW for another week or two.

[Banbury]

I don't see the point in this reset business , wet dull and windy ……..why would anyone  want that ??

We are chasing an area of HP , we have one that will give us chilly temps and dry weather , hopefully it will then wriggle itself into a favourable position 

Edited December 31, 2018 by Banbury

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

I'm not losing any hope at all yet. There is still loads of scatter in the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles. It happened last February where nothing was showing for a cold spell and that was really worrying people because it was almost the end of winter and suddenly, one model latched onto cold then they all quickly followed suit. There is a time lag also so we wouldn't be expecting this cold spell due to the SSW for another week or two.

Agreed Leon

 

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

That’s interesting....I just saw a very informative piece on twitter which explained how important our trop ridge is wrt the split which occurs in the strat vortex ...... that split which will allow a greeny high IF/WHEN upstream buckles to allow it ........

Let’s hope it comes to pass then. I’ll be a millionaire if/when the lottery machine decides to allow it,  I have no problem with being proved wrong (indeed hope I am), but until I see something concrete to the contrary I’m sticking with my own view. I do of course respect that others will have a different opinion though, which is absolutely fine.

[Northern Sky]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Just calling it as I see it. There was a bit more optimism last night which seems to have largely disappeared this morning.

Still two weeks away from the mooted change to colder weather. I don't really see anything has changed over the last few days. If we are to get a change to cold around that time the output should start to show the building blocks towards it. As bluearmy says above the ridge of high pressure over us is part of that. Whether things work out for us is another matter but I'm not worrying yet.

The prospect of some frosty/foggy weather is very appealing but if it turns out o be a cloudy high it will be dull in every sense of the word.

[Rollo]

Allright the weather is boring but we are still in mid winter and quite a bit of time remains for cold lovers to get their deserts but lets not get downhearted at the moment ,we go into the New Year tomorrow so a happy healthy one to you all with loads of the white stuff for those who yearn for it.

[TEITS]

1 hour ago, mulzy said:

The UK high bore fest continues.  Without high latitude blocking, the hunt for cold will end poorly. Ext EPS back to showing low heights to our east and north - a poor signal for deep cold.

Whatever the background signals suggest the NWP *continue* to be poor for cold. Hopefully this will change but people need to lower their expectations.

I agree 100%.

Despite not posting much I have followed the posts on here and also frequently viewed the model output. The reaity is, despite the continous "excellent background signals" being posted, the lack of any decent cold model output is striking. We haven't even seen much eye candy in distant F.I i.e +300 which is unusual in itself. As I said last winter and recently, any cold signals mean nothing if this isn't being shown in the model output.

I respect those who use forecasting methods such as teleconnections but remain sceptical at our ability to use these to make an accurate forecast for a tiny island such as ours. We simply cannot make an accurate LRF using science and firmly believe a farmer has as much chance of being accurate using nature.

At the moment I see nothing that supports deep cold with HP being centred close to the UK for the next couple of weeks.

[lorenzo]

This one Nick by any chance...

It's a series of tweets outlining the route to the NAO flip, great work from Anthony. Everyday is a school day on wxtwitter.

 

[Methuselah]

Here be the GEFS T850 ensembles for Aberdeen and Northampton:

 

Both appear to show (after a spell of massive spread between 7th and 11th January) a noticeable narrowing of options, towards the end...First signs of a coherent SSW-signal perhaps? 

[northwestsnow]

15 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

This one Nick by any chance...

It's a series of tweets outlining the route to the NAO flip, great work from Anthony. Everyday is a school day on wxtwitter.

 

This chap knows his stuff for sure!

I can fully understand peoples frustrations this morning but the background signals remain positive and are lurking in the shadows...

Of course it could all go wrong but im not seeing any reasons not to remain optimistic that boom charts are not far away..

Edited December 31, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Yarmy]

To add to the above...

...and we are still (just) outside that range even in the far reaches of the GFS. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

To add to the above...

...and we are still (just) outside that range even in the far reaches of the GFS. 

Nice post mate..

Patience is a virtue

[Banbury]

16 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I agree 100%.

Despite not posting much I have followed the posts on here and also frequently viewed the model output. The reaity is, despite the continous "excellent background signals" being posted, the lack of any decent cold model output is striking. We haven't even seen much eye candy in distant F.I i.e +300 which is unusual in itself. As I said last winter and recently, any cold signals mean nothing if this isn't being shown in the model output.

I respect those who use forecasting methods such as teleconnections but remain sceptical at our ability to use these to make an accurate forecast for a tiny island such as ours. We simply cannot make an accurate LRF using science and firmly believe a farmer has as much chance of being accurate using nature.

At the moment I see nothing that supports deep cold with HP being centred close to the UK for the next couple of weeks.

Certainly agree with regards the lack of eye candy chats , something I commented on a week or so ago , there isn't  much being latched on to …..currently. That said its Dec 31st , I'm still non the wiser with regards when we should changes due to the SSW but  by the third week we should start to see something in FI ………….if not then who knows 

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

This chap knows his stuff for sure!

I can fully understand peoples frustrations this morning but the background signals remain positive and are lurking in the shadows...

Of course it could all go wrong but im not seeing any reasons not to remain optimistic that boom charts are not far away..

I can’t understand people’s frustrations, I really can’t. We’ve been through enough of these SSW’s to know it’s not a simple watch period. I don’t understand the despondency, perhaps it’s a form of reverse psychology I dunno .

 

Edited December 31, 2018 by karlos1983

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I can’t understand people’s frustrations, I really can’t. We’ve been through enough of these SSW’s to know it’s not a simple watch period. I don’t understand the despondency, perhaps it’s a form of reverse psychology I dunno .

 

You really can't, Karl...??

Well, from a purely personal perspective, it has more to do with the prospect of another 8 days' anticyclonic grot than with the eventual timing of any snowfall...

Edited December 31, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Weathizard]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I can’t understand people’s frustrations, I really can’t. We’ve been through enough of these SSW’s to know it’s not a simple watch period. I don’t understand the despondency, perhaps it’s a form of reverse psychology I dunno .

 

We’ve also been through enough winters where the feather is being dangled just out of reach! People are just commenting on what the output is currently showing, I got chastised for it yesterday as well, we can’t expect every SSW to deliver for us.

That being said I do understand where you are coming from, we’ve been in some far worse positions in winter, but in most winters we at least have season weather I would guess the frustration is some have barely seen a frost yet and we are nearly in January.

[fujita5]

Patience is key here.  Everything is slowly falling into place.  Give it a week and we'll start seeing some fantastic low res charts with perhaps trends becoming evident and slowly moving towards T0.  Give it 10 days and we should see things coming into the reliable (T144 and below).  There's no point in getting het up about it yet, it's simply not going to happen yet.

 

[summer blizzard]

Both the Euro and GEFS still fairly bullish that the Pacific Vortex could cut-off around the 11th-13th. This would amplify the flow downstream (likely a poleward ridge in Canada) and produce a potential pattern change for the UK (we'd still need to see the Canada-Eurasian vortex sort itself) as we head towards mid month.

 

[Dorsetbred]

With 3/4 million reads (Yes crazy numbers) and the year change, ANY chance of starting a new thread for 2019, please MODS?

[MR EXTREMES]

3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Both the Euro and GEFS still fairly bullish that the Pacific Vortex could cut-off around the 11th-13th. This would amplify the flow downstream (likely a poleward ridge in Canada) and produce a potential pattern change for the UK (we'd still need to see the Canada-Eurasian vortex sort itself) as we head towards mid month.

 

good post.

i also see the siberian ridge returning as our side vortex segment drops down into europe and eastern europe,

in turn becoming unsettled into the mediterranean area with more free movement of ridges getting dominant to our west northwest or directly north.

[January Snowstorm]

The 06z run is also pretty dire. This bartlett type high really is out staying it's welcome now. It's up there with the worst of the 90s winters

[bluearmy]

I think we have lost 7/10 days from the pattern ......the delay from the Pacific side. There could have been an expected quick neg AO repsonse from the ssw but that’s not been showing in the modelling so it was never more than a possibility that the modelling couldn’t see until post Xmas. Standard first downwelling wave should be causing a response in the trop from the 10th but no guarantees that this will be favourable for us although the strat evolution should be ok when imprinted further down .......the original lift off for winter being post 7th jan ....... that now revised back 7/10 days unless we see that downwelling wave accelerated 

[swfc]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

The 06z run is also pretty dire. This bartlett type high really is out staying it's welcome now. It's up there with the worst of the 90s winters

slightly better ridging towards Greenland at 180 hrs,not great but there

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The 06z run is also pretty dire. This bartlett type high really is out staying it's welcome now. It's up there with the worst of the 90s winters

I'd wait until the run has finished if I was you