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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Amazing the GFS still can’t deliver and another shortwave puts on its sombrero and drinks cocktails and sits there for days not ejecting se .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Amazing the GFS still can’t deliver and another shortwave puts on its sombrero and drinks cocktails and sits there for days not ejecting se .

 

Are you surprised? This is the UK we are talking about.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
10 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Proper cold now showing up to our Northeast 

Remember this evening and which model first sniffed out a change...

 

Are you being serious are you really trying to say that gfs just come up with pattern change on tonights 18z when ecm has been hinting at this for the last couple of runs ecm trys to rise heights towards Greenland in last run at 168hr just doesn't get as amplified as gfs remember gfs has had 6hrs  more data feed to it to amplify the heights, the gfs is not some wizard the night like you say and is still behind ecm on output.

ECH1-168 (3).gif

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, karyo said:

Are you surprised? This is the UK we are talking about.

Unbelievable ! 

Energy  digging sw upstream , the GFS throws in two shortwaves . And makes a meal out of both .

The overall trend is okay though , so it could have been worse in the higher resolution part .

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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

The models are slowly improving and the word patience will soon be replaced by the word BOOM!

Edited by Stormeh
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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

This chart sums up 90% of my 9 years of Winters on Netweather...

Good old UK and Ireland cold/snowshield in full effect. 

You have to laugh. 

 

AEA6FE4C-EB64-4B84-9C5A-9F0DE583D565.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Pacific trough is cutting off at the surface, that should amplify the flow downstream.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Right on cue up pops a shortwave . The upstream pattern is better on the GFS18 hrs run barring the shortwave to the west of the UK at T168 hrs.

Energy digging south looks good , if we can nuke that shortwave the thread would be buzzing .

I should have kept my mouth shut earlier now!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham

What we are seeing is 3 different stages of output. 

Stage 1 - increased amp from tropical signals (which I think will trend further for a couple of days) toppling Greenland heights 

Stage 2 - Lagged effect from the displacement SSW and flushing of zonal winds (PV locating from West to east from Canada to Siberia) this is what scuppers the tropical amp because it chucks some of the PV north of us as it works across and stops the heights building in turn creating the unsettled weather met office talk about 

Stage 3 - This will be the lagged effect of the split and renewed Greenland ridging in behind and is when our best chance of cold n snow mid month will come

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I should have kept my mouth shut earlier now!

With the GFS nothing is certain ! Putting aside the shortwave trauma the upstream was much better upto day ten  . That’s what we want to see with that troughing digging south sw and holding the PV lobe back .

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I should have kept my mouth shut earlier now!

Yeah, it's like being at nativity play... short waves everywhere!!! Well at least we had something to talk about, for its all been about HP slap bang over the top of us from start to finish for days nows and yes its just one run...next para & gefs 

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Unbelievable ! 

Energy  digging sw upstream , the GFS throws in two shortwaves . And makes a meal out of both .

The overall trend is okay though , so it could have been worse in the higher resolution part .

Yes - and as usual, GFS becomes more mobile as soon as it goes into lower resolution. The Euro models are much better in these type of situations.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
22 minutes ago, karyo said:

Are you surprised? This is the UK we are talking about.

Cold to the North, cold to the East, cold to the South, cold to the West...You just couldn't make it up could you!

gfs-1-42.png

gfs-1-60.png

gfs-1-102.png

gfs-1-234.png

gfs-1-336.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
21 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

The models are slowly improving and the word patience will soon be replaced by the word BOOM!

Hope you are correct can't be long now surely...... 

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Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex
1 hour ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Which post by tamara are you referring to? I cant see it. There a good read like many of you

33andrain. Brilliant site. No bickering. (Most of what i read goes over my head, but great place to learn). 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Ignore it - rather careless commentary if you ask me. Frosts and daytime highs between 0-4C with fog is pretty wintry if you ask me. Snowy, no. Wintry, yes.

He’ll end up with a restraining order soon from the D Express! Obsessive is an understatement literally consumes him, to the point of being the polar opposite to hyperbolic lol. Don’t get me wrong that paper does my nut in, but let it go! 

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

Well folks I know models have been up and down although I think this will change in the next day or 3. In the mean time why not take a look at gavs weather vids and the seasonal model updates this from late winter to early spring Jan thru to March. May i also wish every1 at netweather a very happy newyear for thos of you who haven't had a good year may 2019 be a good1 for you, also thanks to all nw staff for their work thru out the year.  happy and a snowy 2019. Here is the link to this seasonal model round up. 

 

Edited by syed2878
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

Well folks I know models have been up and down although I think this will change in the next day or 3. In the mean time why not take a look at gavs weather vids and the seasonal model updates this from late winter to early spring Jan thru to March. May i also wish every1 at netweather a very happy newyear for thos of you who haven't had a good year may 2019 be a good1 for you, also thanks to all nw staff for their work thru out the year.  happy and a snowy 2019. Here is the link to this seasonal model round up. 

 

The European models are sticking by their guns with the northern blocking theme for mid to late winter.  However, the other models have rather backed away from a blocked scenario in this update.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

These three took my fancy at T276:

image.thumb.jpg.dd6b4b745e952e80d533ef69c7398161.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.2512498aad659f83874b31fe02922a70.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.4ef3fcb6f464207c7011fab52408faef.jpg

Tasty stuff appearing, I think it will only increase in subsequent runs. Smelling the Red Bull!

Edit was to update to the actual 18z, I'd inadvertently posted 12z charts.  These are better!

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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