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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

That's a massive area of high pressure over the UK . (1044mb)

Now if we get zonal winds reversal, that blocking high pressure sits in the Atlantic, bringing us very cold air. 

Plausible surely?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Upstream is unlikely to be sorted out for a few days because of huge uncertainty over the interaction of both arms of the jet .

The phase point or if this does phase is subject to keep changing because the shortwave in the northern jet is currently in an area of the Pacific with sparse observational data.

Timing issues aswell with the models a day apart . The upstream uncertainty feeds into the movement of the PV lobe in ne Canada and the pattern to the west and nw of the UK.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
7 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

That’s weird it’s just done the same on BBC news 24....10 day forcaste just before 10pm 

Same “the HP moving West and then there could be indications” then cut off....What’s that all about...Not Funny!!!

Maybe they didn't want to say turning bitterly cold with UK wide blizzards as they'd hate that...

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
15 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I beg you and anyone replying to big posts, please not to quote the entire post hard work when on an iPhone ?‍♂️

pretty Certain David was saying about Tamara’s post on a different forum. She doesn’t tend to post here much now, which is a massive loss, but I can’t blame her as she gets nothing but crap, which when you construct a post with such detail as she does, to have it dissected is ridiculous.

 

fine for me, I have a Nokia 6310i!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Right on cue up pops a shortwave . The upstream pattern is better on the GFS18 hrs run barring the shortwave to the west of the UK at T168 hrs.

Energy digging south looks good , if we can nuke that shortwave the thread would be buzzing .

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

 

Don’t like that last sentence! 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Aye, 18Z potentially cold frosty/freezing fog, colder air moves down new years day, then high over us, could we be looking at very low mins? assuming clear skies move down on new years day

gfs-0-162.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

 

Don’t like that last sentence! 

I wouldn't worry, he's basing his findings in the gfs

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Even with the shortwave from hell we see an amplified wave developing upstream .

If the GFS can’t get to cold with that upstream pattern then someone’s jinxed us !

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

It only goes up to the 9th of Jan anyway

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Pub run looking decent at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.c8ea0e0c80d9d482937ccabacfd34c93.jpg

The details at this range don't matter too much, we just want to see more op runs coming out with decent synoptics, the detail can be firmed up post the SSW on 1st Jan, when we can get an idea which solution is the one that will transpire!

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

The 18z is excellent tonight for coldies 

Am surprised by the lack of comment

Its decent for sure , I wonder if that's what the Beeb were going to say at 21:55 before she was cut off .

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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

It’s nearly BOOM time..

BE544BA9-8F07-4B8D-A139-94DDAC90409B.thumb.png.9d40ad50a5cf1cb52358a55d52f3b345.png

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Proper cold now showing up to our Northeast 

Remember this evening and which model first sniffed out a change...

 

Indeed. It was the ECM 2 days ago.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
4 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

18z at 210 is there going to be a stonker here?

We might just miss out but its good to see lets hope the GEFS show similar outcomes 

EDIT - gone directly South but nevertheless it could be the start 

Edited by Banbury
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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

Thats my high pressure no its not its mine... no its not its mine. Wheres this going to go...."  taken at T204 GFS.

19010806_3018.gif

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
1 minute ago, Bartlett High said:

So whats Liam Dutton banging on about then?

I just responded on Twitter and his answer was the ECMWF was showing the same trend as the GFS!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
1 minute ago, Bartlett High said:

So whats Liam Dutton banging on about then?

He is merely talking about the HP over us and cold air going into Europe similar to what the 18z is showing - not that we will be that mild mind you 

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