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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

D8 ECM - looks primed for a beast?

Heights sucking NW, trough on the east flank cutting back? 

EDIT: No it doesn't

Getting closer now though

And there's me looking to the North for what looked primed for a Northerly one thing is clear that high is edging west everyday on that run..

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Need that Canadian chunk to blow itself out ............ given what it was supposed to bring just a couple days ago, it’s demise before it got half way across the Altantic is testament to the slow down in zonal flow .....I assume the plan is for the final low heights to transfer nw/se across the northern parts uk as the ridge rertogresses ........trigger low around day 12/13 ........of course the Asian master could pump another push of low heights back across to Canada and we have to go around the block again! Would be a shorter trip though!

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
14 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

There’s the big black hole . 

00825CFA-C134-475C-8F3B-F9FA4B24821D.png

Not as informative as the actual synoptic chart though:

image.thumb.png.fffcca7558b7afa9597a9f7a81158e78.png

The average flow over the UK is a moderate westerly so the anomaly charts will often look flattering. Next chance of a decent cold shot is between T168 to T192 according the the ECM, if we are lucky we may develop a Greenland high.

Given the SSW event usually has a response at the surface 2-4 weeks later, we may well need to be patient.

Nice and settled though. A few people have been hoping for cold zonality. Whilst this may deliver the odd cold snap it is usually followed by a +NAO and milder weather so I'm not so keen on that.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

still great run for early January, you'd expect rain every day, gales, double digit temps, but not a drop of rain for many on this EC, cold at times too

ECH1-240.GIF?30-0

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

going by the ecm run   only seems a matter of time before wow charts start showing  with a easterly element.  

We are missing a good tropical signal, ec takes mjo into cod instead of phases 7-1

@Catacol

Edited by ArHu3
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

It would be somewhat hypocritical to sit here and all debate how outrageously bad the gfs is, to then praise it for showing exactly what we want it to at the back end of the low res..... 

signals of what might transpire? Absolutely, that’s what I will use it for along with the GEFS.

True, and I'm afraid this constant GFS bashing is getting rather tedious. Difference in Model accuracy between the big 3 is really not that noteworthy. If it was, then why does it continue to feature in UKMO updates by the Exeter boys when publishing their forecasts? Do amateurs honestly think that they ignore the data output when manually calibrating their information for the general public? 

Far too much emphasis has been put on SSW this year. Personally, I'll be glad when this latest fad is over and we can get back to the realisation that stratospheric warning is only one element of the complex tapestry of weather prediction. Remember: SSW does not guarantee cold and snow!!

In the meantime, a continuation of some very useable weather with the stagnant high allowing some faux cold to at least appease the coldies for the week ahead

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
9 minutes ago, weirpig said:

going by the ecm run   only seems a matter of time before wow charts start showing  with a easterly element.  

Yes..its profiling..is sweet.

And as you mention..on the doorstep with such synop-for some eye candy!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Just now, Catacol said:

Well - all very curious. Op runs this afternoon are uninspiring again, and I'm sat here scratching my head. By now I would have expected some "boom" runs out in FI or even entering the medium range - but it is as though the UK high is determined to halt the entire global circulation and dig its heels in for the long term. Across all models it's determination to sit tight and hardly move at all is quite striking, though the anomaly charts continue to see a trend for a move north....but it is painfully slow. The ICON has the closest to a change around 180 with a mobile 48 hours setting up a renewed surge of heights to the NW as the system passes through.

It is still a waiting game. But much can change in a short time....10 days ago the pattern was this

gfsnh-2018122000-0-6.thumb.png.539164fcf2645c4bf3ea2ee1ad50f6d4.png

and in 72 hours it will be this

ECH1-72.gif.thumb.png.741a120cc2b5f63c7c7987d0396ff8c6.png

It might seem as though things are standing still - but they are not. Before too long things will be different for sure....and with luck the forecast split can reinforce the passage of the MJO and get a high lat/undercut scenario. Still optimistic (though accepting I've been saying that now for about a month!)

Yep, agreed, was expecting better D10 charts by now, The ECM is a good run (relatively speaking) though and another step in the right direction. The high is edging west and even though it is being toppled, ridging gets stronger. Slooow going though.

There is no doubt the western vortex impact into the Atlantic has calmed down considerably as zonal winds have tailed of. To my mind, this was forecast, so why couldn't the models have factored that in and got that more accurate a week ago? And by that logic, as the zonal winds are going to only carry on in the same direction, we should expect the charts to continue to improve!

The boom charts are surely just around the corner (or the next corner, or the corner after that...  )

 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Well - all very curious. Op runs this afternoon are uninspiring again, and I'm sat here scratching my head. By now I would have expected some "boom" runs out in FI or even entering the medium range - but it is as though the UK high is determined to halt the entire global circulation and dig its heels in for the long term. Across all models it's determination to sit tight and hardly move at all is quite striking, though the anomaly charts continue to see a trend for a move north....but it is painfully slow. The ICON has the closest to a change around 180 with a mobile 48 hours setting up a renewed surge of heights to the NW as the system passes through.

It is still a waiting game. But much can change in a short time....10 days ago the pattern was this

d in 72 hours it will be this

It might seem as though things are standing still - but they are not. Before too long things will be different for sure....and with luck the forecast split can reinforce the passage of the MJO and get a high lat/undercut scenario. Still optimistic (though accepting I've been saying that now for about a month!)

Catacol, you saw this tweet of Anthony ? 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Yes..its profiling..is sweet.

And as you mention..on the doorstep with such synop-for some eye candy!!!

Yes - though a pity the doorstep is about 50m long...! I'd take a nice quick transition to a Greeny block in the next 5 - 7 days.....but so far winter 2018/19 has been the Winter of the Doorstep.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
7 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

You could be right then, but I can also recall an instance a while back of someone chasing down an ensemble member that went really really negative and it turned out to be a 0z member. If anyone knows for certain which suite is used, please could you clarify?  Thanks in advance.

Looking at Hannah Attard’s site, the polar plots have updated for the latest GFS 12z so if that’s the case then maybe it’s the same for the zonal plots. I.e. they update for the current day’s GEFS 0z? Doesn’t explain why the forecast lines start from 12pm on the previous day though.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
13 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Don't agree with that ArHu - MJO signal is still good. 

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.thumb.png.134117cd765a04fe26cb108e3c603756.png

NOAA summary as follows:

"Given recent observations and the model forecasts, the MJO is anticipated to remain active and be one of the primary influences on the tropical convective pattern over the next two weeks."

Not going into the COD for me.

There is a marked difference between ec and gfs though (you probably need to click on both images to see the correct updated version) 

 

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

 

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

High pressure seems to pulling out west with cold air lurking to the north and east of U.K. This was  mentioned on BBC long range forecast high moving west and  towards the end of forecast she said there are indications. But video ended so don't no rest of it could be indications of colder weather to come???

IMG_0001.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
23 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

500 posts a minute, are things looking up

Well certainly 'potential' there (please don't shoot me)...I believe that's why there's so many posts

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32 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

True, and I'm afraid this constant GFS bashing is getting rather tedious. Difference in Model accuracy between the big 3 is really not that noteworthy. If it was, then why does it continue to feature in UKMO updates by the Exeter boys when publishing their forecasts? Do amateurs honestly think that they ignore the data output when manually calibrating their information for the general public? 

Far too much emphasis has been put on SSW this year. Personally, I'll be glad when this latest fad is over and we can get back to the realisation that stratospheric warning is only one element of the complex tapestry of weather prediction. Remember: SSW does not guarantee cold and snow!!

In the meantime, a continuation of some very useable weather with the stagnant high allowing some faux cold to at least appease the coldies for the week ahead

Years ago people said global warming was a fad and look where we are now!! besides I think reminding everyone that a SSW doesn't always guarantee cold and snow is far more tedious as even the most novice of us are fully aware of that.

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