Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[gottolovethisweather]

55 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

corking stratospheric run on the 12z GFS,split maintained throughout but the siberian lobe pushed way to the south with a huuuuuugggggggeeeeeee  ridge in the pole - big reversal. potential Easterly if we could get that propagating down through the atmosphere.

Week two Northerly and Northeasterly kicks in. Week three (14th January onwards) brings a Beast from the East again, perhaps? That's how I would write all predictions up to mid-January right now. A slowly developing yet perfect scenario is eventually coming to us snow lovers IMHO.

Edited December 30, 2018 by gottolovethisweather

[lorenzo]

Couple of GIFS looking at the killer question of propagation. First is the u profile from the CPC site and next up the GFS view of NAM as it progressed from between 20-30th Dec. Appreciate these are equally suited to the strat. thread but it's becoming a case of the SSW and NWP intertwining in the hunt for cold right now..

Then from Zac's site the actual split activity itself, you can see the window into Greenland playing out in part on the modelling just now, and also toward Day 10 the further energy wrapping into the Canadian Vortex lobe as it shears across. 

In particular these two stills from the sequence, just wow for what can happen in 24 hrs...

This party ain;t over yet with this action either... 

Over to you ECM to unpick the bones out of that lot please...

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Week two Northerly and Northeasterly kicks in. Week three (14th January onwards) brings a Beast from the East again, perhaps? That's how I would write all predictions up to mid-January right now. A slowly developing yet perfect scenario is eventually coming to us snow lovers.

Im not as confident about this whole thing as i was a few weeks back BUT IF things go according to plan, i would have mid atlantic high week2 -week3 transitioning into a Greeny block and scandi heights with Easterly late Jan / Early feb.

[Duane S.]

17 minutes ago, cold snap said:

 

Live Blizzards here for the snow mad crew 

 

They often do well. Forecast for them in 3 day's time - they (if my geograpy is up to scratch) manage to retain a pocket of -16 850s and what would be furher snow

, from this...

Not jealous at all!!!

Edited December 30, 2018 by s4lancia

[bluearmy]

plenty of fun in the extended gefs ..... where will the polar surface highs position themselves ?? It’s important ..... if we get one in the right place when one of the Atlantic ridges heads north then bingo .........that would accelerate what likely to come just post mid month anyway .....

[snowfish1]

43 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

disagree, horror story would be low after low, barrelling in from the Atlantic, with no respite on a fairly southerly track bringing endless rain and flood problems, gale damage too, the worst imaginable

I like the GFS 12Z

I'm talking with regards to cold and snow. If it sticks around how are we supposed to get snow then. If it migrated west then yes it becomes our friend or indeed north of us but to just sit over us isn't wonderful for what most of us are looking for.  Yes, agreed endless wind and rain low pressure would be horrendous lol

Edited December 30, 2018 by snowfish1

[Duane S.]

Whilst we await the mood of tonight's ECM 12z, interesting to see that the ECM -

 - has edged towards the GEFS -

 - (a bit), in terms of the MJO forecast. A way to go yet though.

GEFS remains fairly resolute, with a nice loop de loop in phase 7 again today.

 

[Duane S.]

3 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

I'm talking with regards to cold and snow. If it sticks around how are we supposed to get snow then

You won't.

But if the high is in our vicinity once the retrogression signal is there, probably towards mid January, then said high will turn from much maligned to the best thing since sliced bread.

Or... maybe, it doesn't happen, we get 3 weeks of dull weather and it sinks to be replaced by weeks and weeks of Atlantic weather.

I know which outcome I favour right now but we may end up missing out all winter, it happens. But isn't it fun in the meantime though? No point being all grumpy every post, always expecting the worst. Moan and groan all you want in March, in the mean time join the hunt for cold!

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

You won't.

But if the high is in our vicinity once the retrogression signal is there, probably towards mid January, then said high will turn from much maligned to the best thing since sliced bread.

Or... maybe, it doesn't happen, we get 3 weeks of dull weather and it sinks to be replaced by weeks and weeks of Atlantic weather.

I know which outcome I favour right now but we may end up missing out all winter, it happens. But isn't it fun in the meantime though? No point being all grumpy every post, always expecting the worst. Moan and groan all you want in March, in the mean time join the hunt for cold!

March is the new February ? moan in April lol 

[Bullseye]

14 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Whilst we await the mood of tonight's ECM 12z, interesting to see that the ECM -

 - has edged towards the GEFS -

 - (a bit), in terms of the MJO forecast. A way to go yet though.

GEFS remains fairly resolute, with a nice loop de loop in phase 7 again today.

 

Lots of contrasting views on the MJO at present. The guys over on 33andrain are already under impression we are in phase 6 and phase 7/8 by next week. I am sure this was based on the below. Phase 8 into week 2. 

Edited December 30, 2018 by Bullseye

[Methuselah]

Starting to look like dam that's about to burst open...When it does, it'll be Stonker Central!

[Duane S.]

2 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Lots of contrasting views on the MJO at present. The guys over on 33andrain are already under impression we are in phase 6 and phase 7/8 by next week. I am sure this was based on the below. Phase 8 into week 2. 

Yep, wouldn't be surprised if we are in P6. Phase 5 usually the most inaccurate and playing catch up data-wise.

[Duane S.]

That's a decent chart. High further west and pretty robust looking at +144

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

That's a decent chart. High further west and pretty robust looking at +144

Yup and PV looks to be breaking up quicker than the 00z should be a decent run 

[Devonshire]

13 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

March is the new February ? moan in April lol 

Better still - make a NY resolution to stop moaning (or take it elsewhere)!

[karlos1983]

Just now, Devonshire said:

Better still - make a NY resolution to stop moaning (or take it elsewhere)!

Like the moans thread you mean

[Duane S.]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Yup and PV looks to be breaking up quicker than the 00z should be a decent run 

Yep, follow up not too shabby eihter

Compare with yesterday's 12z...

[ICE COLD]

There’s the big black hole . 

[tight isobar]

Run of the-season so far..ecm 12z

 

[Methuselah]

But the wait, for the mother of all stonkers, goes on...

[Duane S.]

Moves west, maintains good lat and a good angle...

Yesterdays;...

Can it?

 

[Man With Beard]

D8 ECM - looks primed for a beast?

Heights sucking NW, trough on the east flank cutting back? 

EDIT: No it doesn't

Getting closer now though

Edited December 30, 2018 by Man With Beard

[Froze were the Days]

Looks like it's flattening out at 216z sadly - energy over the top.

[SLEETY]

not really still

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Run of the-season so far..ecm 12z

 

really? looks nothing special to me,we never catch any really cold out to day 9 at least,high pressure in the Atlantic too near.Have to wait a bit longer to see some mega cold runs I think.

[Duane S.]

Not quite yet, still looks good though!