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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

corking stratospheric run on the 12z GFS,split maintained throughout but the siberian lobe pushed way to the south with a huuuuuugggggggeeeeeee  ridge in the pole - big reversal. potential Easterly if we could get that propagating down through the atmosphere.

image.thumb.png.a2115594cb6027dc845c538ad5a5a030.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

Strat still warming today 10hpa now at -15 

Models and AO won't show react for a while yet

Weather won't react for a n other fortnight if it's going to

But good chances of a moderate split in the P V which might give us what we want by middle of the month but nothing is guaranteed with these strat warming s so hold on to your buts everyone

 

‘Models won’t show react’ ...... the same model that is currently modelling the strat warming and tech ssw on Tuesday? I don’t understand how the model won’t react when it’s that model high up as low down ??

if you mean we won’t see the effects of the reversal until mid jan modelling comes into closer view then not going to disagree with you .... remains unclear 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Although the majority of the Gfs is trash the last frame looks promising 

Timing fits but the gfs has the vortex centres the wrong way around .... Siberian will be larger chunk ...... had it gor that right, the back end might have been even more interesting......

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - cold, summer - not hot
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands
6 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Although the majority of the Gfs is trash the last frame looks promising 

I can't remember how many times I've seen the GFS end on a cliffhanger this winter.  We need to see something happen within the 240hr timeframe, and soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It really wasn't, very disappointed after seeing that comment..

A bit of a stinker, actually...Can't really even say, all's well that ends well! Some potential though?

image.thumb.png.3a76bc66a1b99cec20b38e676b5f3013.png

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

I thought the GFS was actually pretty decent.Taking away the fact that of course it won't end up like that, there were x3 northerly ridge builds inside the first 192 hours and x6 by the end of FI (with a 7th to follow)!

All were toppled but I wonder how close it was? i.e. a bit less energy, slight variance in the jet angle? Lets see what GEFS says.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

corking stratospheric run on the 12z GFS,split maintained throughout but the siberian lobe pushed way to the south with a huuuuuugggggggeeeeeee  ridge in the pole - big reversal. potential Easterly if we could get that propagating down through the atmosphere.

image.thumb.png.a2115594cb6027dc845c538ad5a5a030.png

Exceptional chart that!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Just in.  NCEP short term discussion . A general blend was used upto New Year’s Day .

After that to the Thursday it’s a blend of the ECM 00hrs and GFS 12 hrs , more weighing towards the ECM and ECM ens.

The UKMO and GEM have both been discounted . This forecast just runs to the 3rd January .

They update further once the ECM 12 hrs comes out .

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Just now, bluearmy said:

‘Models won’t show react’ ...... the same model that is currently modelling the strat warming and tech ssw on Tuesday? I don’t understand how the model won’t react when it’s that model high up as low down ??

if you mean we won’t see the effects of the reversal until mid jan modelling comes into closer view then not going to disagree with you .... remains unclear 

I'm trying to be cautiously optimistic for now but I think we all know if the warming does effect our weather it could be the ideal time for northern  blocking, none better than the middle of January 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

It would be somewhat hypocritical to sit here and all debate how outrageously bad the gfs is, to then praise it for showing exactly what we want it to at the back end of the low res..... 

signals of what might transpire? Absolutely, that’s what I will use it for along with the GEFS.

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
9 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I thought the GFS was actually pretty decent.Taking away the fact that of course it won't end up like that, there were x3 northerly ridge builds inside the first 192 hours and x6 by the end of FI (with a 7th to follow)!

All were toppled but I wonder how close it was? i.e. a bit less energy, slight variance in the jet angle? Lets see what GEFS says.

Answer, as expected, absolutely zero appetite for any HLB inside +192 from any member (I had hoped one or two may go for it though). Suspect the back end will be different however...

Remember, just ridging, sinking back but maintaining the MLB (as boring as it may be at the time) could well be crucial once the retrogression signal is there.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Regarding the MJO.

Although the models still disagree we have seen a speeding up of the signal into phase 6.

The ECM still has the lowest strength  but is stronger than yesterday . Crucially we’re about to leave behind the phase 5 which is a horrible phase to be in.

Progression through phase 6 should start to add more amplification into the upstream flow .

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
4 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Answer, as expected, absolutely zero appetite for any HLB inside +192 from any member (I had hoped one or two may go for it though). Suspect the back end will be different however...

Remember, just ridging, sinking back but maintaining the MLB (as boring as it may be at the time) could well be crucial once the retrogression signal is there.

Not looking to shabby 

F337FF35-B17A-4716-93AF-33336D827A3A.thumb.png.621fa4115abb099d9e33b361596863b8.png01F92DB3-AD4D-456B-9AAD-0872CFCD3601.thumb.png.d47be3268bde865243c400a6b92171c4.pngA947529D-B7D7-4187-9676-602801882570.thumb.png.6d72ef72ce3297ec2dc8f17f854d251d.pngDDEECA10-A365-47CF-8A78-58B9BF1B06CD.thumb.png.9506326b8524600960a62f7609d46fd9.png6D5ECA94-28EB-4922-8271-6428559B668A.thumb.png.47e73fd05542a58dd7b7d29fad5240c6.png

Not hard to see routes to cold from those.

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
50 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Patience grasshopper ......

Almost..... the first half of the GFS output wasn't too bad I thought :oldgood:

Fwq1Zyh.jpg

Your words are very appropriate  "Patience" ....   Next >>>> to the ECM 

 

 

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Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

disagree, horror story would be low after low, barrelling in from the Atlantic, with no respite on a fairly southerly track bringing endless rain and flood problems, gale damage too, the worst imaginable

I like the GFS 12Z

Agreed ,gfs doesn't show endless rain ,severe gales and flood damage for those who are at risk 

Suits me fine

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

disagree, horror story would be low after low, barrelling in from the Atlantic, with no respite on a fairly southerly track bringing endless rain and flood problems, gale damage too, the worst imaginable

I like the GFS 12Z

Depends on your preference- for those wanting cold uppers its not great.. for those wanting a break from the rain then i agree, its brill.

(And believe me i'm with you, we need a break from the constant mild wet drizzly weather).

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not looking to shabby 

F337FF35-B17A-4716-93AF-33336D827A3A.thumb.png.621fa4115abb099d9e33b361596863b8.png01F92DB3-AD4D-456B-9AAD-0872CFCD3601.thumb.png.d47be3268bde865243c400a6b92171c4.pngA947529D-B7D7-4187-9676-602801882570.thumb.png.6d72ef72ce3297ec2dc8f17f854d251d.pngDDEECA10-A365-47CF-8A78-58B9BF1B06CD.thumb.png.9506326b8524600960a62f7609d46fd9.png6D5ECA94-28EB-4922-8271-6428559B668A.thumb.png.47e73fd05542a58dd7b7d29fad5240c6.png

Not hard to see routes to cold from those.

Not bad but admitedly not as good I was was expecting. Then again, trying to second guess GEFS in FI is akin to trying to judge the bounce of a rugby ball

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Gav's latest SSW+poss tropospheric effects vid: 

Limpet HP's lifespan still being extended? HLB? Ignore the CFS!

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