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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
Just now, Weathizard said:

ICON pretty poor also, even if it is a chocolate teapot. (IMO)

 

Always look on the bright side of life do do do do.

4A11D442-CA8E-4745-9ED6-F3B727EA8F64.png

Again look at the split of purples n build of high pressure over the pole. You do understand that or just guessing? 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

Again look at the split of purples n build of high pressure over the pole. You do understand that or just guessing? 

Again, look at the lobe of death still sitting in situ spitting energy across the top of the high reinforcing the same pattern we are stuck in now. Don’t appreciate the patronising tone neither.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Again look at the split of purples n build of high pressure over the pole. You do understand that or just guessing? 

We could do with some brighter colours separating the purples though.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

We could do with some brighter colours separating the purples though.

They will come as the models filter in the zonal winds dropping like a stone. Baby steps

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Stuck in work can't see it Feb..

High being pulled into the Atlantic?

Perfection WAA up the western side of Greenland, sharp riding towards the pole, thus a trough about to drop into Europe, maybe even far enough west for the cold to clip us, either way its setting up for a stonking T300+

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Perfection WAA up the western side of Greenland, sharp riding towards the pole, thus a trough about to drop into Europe, maybe even far enough west for the cold to clip us, either way its setting up for a stonking T300+

It's why I'm kind of happier the split is smaller than the feb18 one. Fine margins but sets us up for less chance of a west based NAO if and when we get propagation 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Typical as the GFS improves the UKMO goes AWOL.

The UKMO is an incoherent mess upstream , utter garbage . If that verifies I will go to morning mass at Lourdes for the next week !

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

It's why I'm kind of happier the split is smaller than the feb18 one. Fine margins but sets us up for less chance of a west based NAO if and when we get propagation 

Problem is though you run the risk of just transient NW / N'lies or topplers.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Problem is though you run the risk of just transient NW / N'lies or topplers.

I agree fine margins. But get the block at a high enough latitude and we have a Greenland high northerly and Easterlies. It will slow the jet and drive split energy

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
52 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Dates for propensity of lowest -AO values 10-20th Jan....

Cheers

S

Thank you for being the voice of reason, Steve. Give it a few days and the pot of coffee will begin to boil so to speak 

Edited by Polar Maritime
Shortened Quote.
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Typical as the GFS improves the UKMO goes AWOL.

The UKMO is an incoherent mess upstream , utter garbage . If that verifies I will go to morning mass at Lourdes for the next week !

It is the first time that UKMO has hit this D6 time period, both GFS and GEM have been pretty bad for many runs for this trigger point. GFS is now backing up the ECM 0z, further to its 06z, and GEM also on board with the ECM synoptic. I find UKMO is usually the last to spot those delicate upstream variables at that range so expect them to follow tomorrow.

So confidence in extending the HP Atlantic domination has increased significantly with these runs.

Not that this will bring much interest for cold/snow lovers in the medium term assuming status quo viz QTR. The HP is badly placed for UK snow, just hope this pattern is eventually replaced with something better down the line.

Foundation works currently in progress so mid-month onwards for more interest.

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Strat still warming today 10hpa now at -15 

Models and AO won't show react for a while yet

Weather won't react for a n other fortnight if it's going to

But good chances of a moderate split in the P V which might give us what we want by middle of the month but nothing is guaranteed with these strat warming s so hold on to your buts everyone

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

And the gfs 12z is a horror story for us with the high pressure just lolling around serving as a catalyst for artic incursions into Europe.. Hurry up now I'm getting thoroughly bored 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, IDO said:

It is the first time that UKMO has hit this D6 time period, both GFS and GEM have been pretty bad for many runs for this trigger point. GFS is now backing up the ECM 0z, further to its 06z, and GEM also on board with the ECM synoptic. I find UKMO is usually the last to spot those delicate upstream variables at that range so expect them to follow tomorrow.

So confidence in extending the HP Atlantic domination has increased significantly with these runs.

Not that this will bring much interest for cold/snow lovers in the medium term assuming status quo viz QTR. The HP is badly placed for UK snow, just hope this pattern is eventually replaced with something better down the line.

Foundation works currently in progress so mid-month onwards for more interest.

If you read the NCEP discussions , they have relied heavily on the ECM for their extended forecast . That includes though only upto the GFS 06 hrs run.

They have demolished the GFS  runs up to that point ,  they were okay though with the 00 hrs UKMO output .

Tonights offering from the UKMO looks like it’s lost the plot upstream . The ECM is by far the best model for resolving phasing of northern and southern arms of the jet over the USA. And that’s the main issue at present upstream .

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