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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Re my previous post it’s absolutely crucial that phasing takes place of those jets to help develop that deeper low pressure.

We’re trying to move that PV lobe over ne Canada , this lobe is like the mothership feeding energy into the Atlantic .

To move that we need something to attach to it , that’s why the deepening low is important because when that phases with it and continues to travel east the consequence is that pivot action of the PV lobe further to the nw .

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

You could be right then, but I can also recall an instance a while back of someone chasing down an ensemble member that went really really negative and it turned out to be a 0z member. If anyone knows for certain which suite is used, please could you clarify?  Thanks in advance.

Are they really going to be open to much change though in a 12 hour period at 10hpa? It’s probably a mute point

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Barry
  • Location: Barry
10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Re my previous post it’s absolutely crucial that phasing takes place of those jets to help develop that deeper low pressure.

We’re trying to move that PV lobe over ne Canada , this lobe is like the mothership feeding energy into the Atlantic .

To move that we need something to attach to it , that’s why the deepening low is important because when that phases with it and continues to travel east the consequence is that pivot action of the PV lobe further to the nw .

Sorry, but please could you explain what you mean by phasing? Thanks

 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
3 minutes ago, Snow Dragon said:

Sorry, but please could you explain what you mean by phasing? Thanks

 

Let's hope and pray the weather gods are benevolent to us coldies in western Europe for once

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
7 minutes ago, Snow Dragon said:

Sorry, but please could you explain what you mean by phasing? Thanks

 

Phasing is essentially two low pressures or shortwaves which combine to form one main low . The main low often deepens as a result of that .

In this instance two shortwaves carried by both jets meet up over the ne USA .

USA forecasters often use the term shortwave.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Barry
  • Location: Barry
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Phasing is essentially two low pressures or shortwaves which combine to form one main low . The main low often deepens as a result of that .

In this instance two shortwaves carried by both jets meet up over the ne USA .

 

Thank you. I see what you mean now from looking at the charts you posted earlier. Really appreciate the help, thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Phasing is essentially two low pressures or shortwaves which combine to form one main low . The main low often deepens as a result of that .

In this instance two shortwaves carried by both jets meet up over the ne USA .

USA forecasters often use the term shortwave.

I notice how shortwaves always scupper our chances by being ejected in the wrong place at the right time, ie - Eastwards from Greenland towards scandi scuppering our chances of a N'ly, or E wards across us instead of SE scuppering our chances of an E'ly but they never turn up at the right time - ie- over the UK when we already have -10c or below uppers over us to give us a right pasting.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I notice how shortwaves always scupper our chances by being ejected in the wrong place at the right time, ie - Eastwards from Greenland towards scandi scuppering our chances of a N'ly, or E wards across us instead of SE scuppering our chances of an E'ly but they never turn up at the right time - ie- over the UK when we already have -10c or below uppers over us to give us a right pasting.

Oh yes we’ve had many shortwave traumas in the past . The thing is though they’re not just being mean for the sake of it. Essentially shortwaves are the messenger from the longwave pattern . Ordinarily these go without mention during the summer but of course in winter where we see those easterly teases they inevitably become the star of the show !

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

There is a cold clustering on the EPS but it needs to get bigger.

image.thumb.png.62a0f8ee7ddac7834fcaabb29f5a64f8.png

 

Cannot be sure whether its high pressure or potent cold by looking at the graph alone.

However, looking at the clusters its is a Greenland block, those temps seem about right in London for a N'ly.

image.thumb.png.773feb93688ff4b71d99469fbb63af08.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
42 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

You could be right then, but I can also recall an instance a while back of someone chasing down an ensemble member that went really really negative and it turned out to be a 0z member. If anyone knows for certain which suite is used, please could you clarify?  Thanks in advance.

image.thumb.png.d8b6ff095f6546c150b21952e0ea9fd1.png Thinking 00z suite

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I notice how shortwaves always scupper our chances by being ejected in the wrong place at the right time, ie - Eastwards from Greenland towards scandi scuppering our chances of a N'ly, or E wards across us instead of SE scuppering our chances of an E'ly but they never turn up at the right time - ie- over the UK when we already have -10c or below uppers over us to give us a right pasting.

Wasn't there a shortwave just before the Beast from the East really hit  earlier this year set in and parts of NW England got snow from it? 

image.thumb.png.50e19c246e6fdae7ef905914dba6856e.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
23 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Ordinarily these go without mention during the summer but of course in winter where we see those easterly teases they inevitably become the star VILLAIN  of the show !

Tided for you Nick.....

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Wasn't there a shortwave just before the Beast from the East really hit  earlier this year set in and parts of NW England got snow from it? 

image.thumb.png.50e19c246e6fdae7ef905914dba6856e.png

Yes i was in the Amber warning when the models suggested it would miss me to the South, it ended up missing me to the North!   the 10cm extra that would have given me over the week would have turned a good spell into a memorable one for me.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

image.thumb.png.d8b6ff095f6546c150b21952e0ea9fd1.png Thinking 00z suite

Apples and oranges: that's 60N and the Attard plot is 65N. Nor does the above actually show any of the 12z runs so how could you compare?

It's simple to check though, if the Attard plot changes before 6am tomorrow (and remember that the site itself says it updates at midnight UTC) then it can't be the 0z because the plot would be arriving before the model had even finished running.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Blimey.. it was woefully wrong at day5...i think its a big leap of faith to expect it to right at day 10/11..

I have little faith in GFS full stop...occasionally picks out trends in FI just commenting on what would happen on that brief excursion with HP to our north west on that 06z, nothing more nothing less.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I have little faith in GFS full stop...occasionally picks out trends in FI just commenting on what would happen on that brief excursion with HP to our north west on that 06z, nothing more nothing less.

I have little faith in any of the models TBH...

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There is a cold clustering on the EPS but it needs to get bigger.

image.thumb.png.62a0f8ee7ddac7834fcaabb29f5a64f8.png

 

Cannot be sure whether its high pressure or potent cold by looking at the graph alone.

However, looking at the clusters its is a Greenland block, those temps seem about right in London for a N'ly.

image.thumb.png.773feb93688ff4b71d99469fbb63af08.png

Was only a six run cluster ......

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45 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

I’ve never been able to find archived GEFS online, but @Interitus posted an individual member I requested a little while back.

As posted above it looks like today's 00z. Regarding the longevity of the reversal, after 3 GFS op runs having a reversal at T384, the last 4 have all seen westerly winds return -

627597458_last4op.thumb.png.869782aafa309553f2de681d7c34b6da.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Was only a six run cluster ......

Yes, sorry, i was slap-dashedly looking at the number 24 and mistakenly thought it was 24%, however i did also state that to have any validity whatsoever it needs to grow soon, for what its worth, my opinion is IF it does turn out to be the synoptic pattern, it would happen a bit later than the cluster suggestests it will.

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

First proper sign from the models of a colder pattern developing for British Isles as the block gradually re positions itself with northerly developing eventually. Hopefully this will also be brought forward too.  

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
3 minutes ago, BARRY said:

As there is a shut down of American government services has this any effect on the GFs output

No. we just don’t get to see some data. 

Edited by karlos1983
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