Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted

JN6-5.GIF?29-12

 

This is the straw we have to grasp, and it looks good enough (not quite as impressive as last Winter though) could be 3 or 4 weeks before this propagates down.

We are kind of desperate for a change now. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
london-snow Aficionado

london-snow

Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
Posted
5 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

JN6-5.GIF?29-12

 

This is the straw we have to grasp, and it looks good enough (not quite as impressive as last Winter though) could be 3 or 4 weeks before this propagates down.

We are kind of desperate for a change now. 

Really? is this the first warming or the second?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, Nick F said:

 

Sorry can't delete above..

Alas, wish I had stayed away from model watching over the whole christmas period, as it really is like watching paint dry this christmas - high pressure just moving around like it is in a washing machine, going nowhere.. 

As others have said - if the effects of the SSW are not to be felt until at least 2 weeks later (by 14/15 Jan at earliest), then that gives the models a whole 10 days more of time before they begin to show the possible effects within the reliable - so not until about 8/9 Jan - can those hunting for cold withstand two more weeks of the models being less than convinced at least in the reliable.. probably not.

I expect this thread will be full of much impatience in the opening days of January - many people writing off winter posts etc.. wish I was going on holiday for a couple of weeks... as I will quickly grow tired of such posts.

In the meantime, its a case of watching the models show a slow painful death for the current high pressure, with I suspect the GFS going into full on zonal atlantic turbo charge for the period 8/9 - 15 Jan, the ECM holding the high in place for an eternity.

GFS is not without interest in fantasy land - mid atlantic heights and a northerly - this could be the eventual trigger to the cold later in January, with heights merging with heights over the Pole. It has a tendency to spot long term trends well beyond the reliable, ditch them, bring them back close to the medium term, do a quick u turn, then hold with them just within the reliable - I do rate it when it comes to developments to our NW, and it is often the first model to sniff out a northerly and height rises over Greenland, ECM does far better with scandi highs/ scandi troughs and siberian high advection - just my observations over many years of watching the models.

 

 

 

Edited by damianslaw
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, london-snow said:

Really? is this the first warming or the second?

Thats practically an analysis chart from today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
9 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

JN6-5.GIF?29-12

 

This is the straw we have to grasp, and it looks good enough (not quite as impressive as last Winter though) could be 3 or 4 weeks before this propagates down.

We are kind of desperate for a change now. 

This one's even better?

image.thumb.png.345522dd9299de24b3360e1f0231847f.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, More Snow said:

well the latest bbc weather forecast was total dung. she said winds from the north west at least 3 times when the graphics clearly showed north or north east winds. 

You forgot the bit about the sinking high which wasn't shown by the graphics.

GFS beginning to follow ECMs lead in keeping the high in control. The exact place where the high ends up will decide whether we get a cold blast or mild air over the top.

Edited by lorenzo
removing off topic content
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
stratty Aficionado

stratty

Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
Posted
1 minute ago, The PIT said:

You forgot the bit about the sinking high which wasn't shown by the graphics.

GFS beginning to follow ECMs lead in keeping the high in control. The exact place where the high ends up will decide whether we get a cold blast or mild air over the top.

Has the GFS not kept the limpet HP over us for all eternity in some runs already? eg the earlier run today for example! 

image.thumb.png.7de36101b8904ffc8b9a72e42efed4c2.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

I cannot understand how some of you are going off-topic so fast? It's not as if the thread is moving fast due to lots of posts!

I have hidden numerous ones. Don't take it personally, they are just not the place for them to be. So please, can we get back to normal?

Thanks.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted (edited)

I think we should buy stakes in this high pressure. GFS smelling the coffee and gradually dropping the mobile Atlantic. 

Good chance the only cold we will see will be air trapped into the high pressure and possible inversions.

 

Edited by The PIT
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Hope I'm not going to get into trouble with the mods, but here is a weather chart!!!!

Anyway, out to 216 and the 18z is showing more amplification over the UK vs 12z.  Small differences, but maybe the GFS is starting to get a handle on things?  Maybe a better day tomorrow?

image.thumb.png.64d83ef9d0b42c901b6538d4b050d8fe.png  image.thumb.png.2f349f1eff7f3f3b526a653f5759daf3.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted
38 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

That's the warming now, today.

Thanks Eddie

Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

That lobe of the strat vortex is going to be problematic i think, maybe the pro's mentioning late January as the timeframe could be that we are going to require another attack on the vortex and thats what the long range models are showing.

image.thumb.png.a5284c2fee28711bd6e10457f202f6d4.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted
15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Is GFS thinking about splitting the PV?

It looks a very strong PV one has to say..

Doesn’t look to strong from this chart from the 7th

85A1E784-B075-45F8-B59C-753AB592779F.jpeg

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Is GFS thinking about splitting the PV?

It looks a very strong PV one has to say..

No split going on there :unknw: HP, just flattened. 

 But who cares I’m not taking anything seriously atm and especially the GFS.....unless it’s showing Narnia...let me know when you see mr Tumnus 

Edited by Dancerwithwings
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Don said:

Any idea what this tweet means?

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1079086683310776320/photo/1

An increase in AAM, westerlies at 30N should mean good news for us.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

An increase in AAM, westerlies at 30N should mean good news for us.

Thanks, wasn't sure when he stated 'it's over' at the end!  I guess he meant the westerlies?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
1 minute ago, Don said:

Thanks, wasn't sure when he stated 'it's over' at the end!  I guess he meant the westerlies?

He tweeetd earlier to say that things are on hold in the Pacific ..... probably a stagnant pattern for two weeks so we waste a fortnight of winter as we sit under the block ........

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Don said:

Thanks, wasn't sure when he stated 'it's over' at the end!  I guess he meant the westerlies?

I think thats what it means anyway - maybe one of our guru's could confirm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Latest Weather News

    April showers, sunny spells and nippy nights

    Another mixed, cool day with sunny spells and scattered showers. Passing low pressures will bring wind and rain as the nippy nights continue. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-04-16 07:15:52 Valid: 16/04/2024 0600 - 17/04/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - TUES 16 APRIL 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    European weekend heat and a wild start to Monday for the UK

    April temperature records were broken in many locations in Spain and France this weekend. Cooler air is on the way with a wet and wild Monday morning in the Midlands. Read more here

    Jo Farrow
    Jo Farrow | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...