Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

But very different to ECM , be interesting to see where this all falls 

Lobe of death still present even at day 15, in fairness this GFS run seems to fit in fairly well with the UKM extended outlook, lows coming in from the NW with possibility of hill snow or wintriness at time for the north in the 10-15 day period.

[The PIT]

No real change in the GFS it's pretty determined to rid of of this boring high. Hangs onto it slightly longer. So for those looking for cold ECM with some colder air injected into our High pressure or transient blink and you miss them cold snaps with the GFS. Got a feeling ECM is going to win this one.

Edited December 29, 2018 by The PIT

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Lobe of death still present even at day 15, in fairness this GFS run seems to fit in fairly well with the UKM extended outlook, lows coming in from the NW with possibility of hill snow or wintriness at time for the north in the 10-15 day period.

Yes it does , unless there is a big change in their wording today ( I doubt very much ) 

[LRD]

From promise last night to another GFS nightmare

Look at the size of the Atlantic High in the last frame (the S'ly high pressure belt never really relents from about 174 hours). Grim

Almost tempted to trot out my usual stuff about the trend for tropical high pressure cells to be horribly bloated and displaced too far north (in winter/autumn) over the last few years*. But I won't

*Maybe the Azores High will get so far north in a decade or two it'll start to make it to Greenland and plunge us into cold winters by accident!

[Polar Maritime]

Just to remind folk that this thread is purely only for 'Model' Hunt for cold.. Lot's of posts are more suited to the Winter thread. Please make sure you are posting in the correct thread before clicking 'Submit reply' or posts will start to magically go missing.

Thanks.

[Chesil View]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Wise words..

I think coldies have everything crossed GFS is barking up the wrong tree..

Indeed NWS. The thing with GFS is when it barks up the wrong tree it really barks up the wrong tree.

[DanDorsetUK]

It could be the ecm is simply playing with a "possible" qtr scenario! Dont forget the 1st is the main date things really get going where as the gfs is clearly saying no to a qtr. Don't forget there's often a lag of up to two weeks for a strat warming to trigger a tropospheric response down to lower levels. I'm not paying much interest in output untill monday to Wednesday at the earliest when a qtr is more likely to be picked up. 

[Methuselah]

With any luck, Eastern Coastal counties might just escape most of that cloudy, damp muck with 7C maxima...I'm not hopeful!

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

It could be the ecm is simply playing with a "possible" qtr scenario! Dont forget the 1st is the main date things really get going where as the gfs is clearly saying no to a qtr. Don't forget there's often a lag of up to two weeks for a strat warming to trigger a tropospheric response down to lower levels. I'm not paying much interest in output untill monday to Wednesday at the earliest when a qtr is more likely to be picked up. 

Still don’t see quick but more evidence that a response within 10/12 days of the reversal is showing 

gfsp better amplification again .... and it could be argued that it’s 00z run shows a trop response of sorts by mid month with some higher anomolys draped across the pole .... the gefs certainly repsonding as the Atlantic looks to be less aggressive 

Edited December 29, 2018 by bluearmy

[Newberryone]

Amidst all the doom and gloom coming off the back of the latest gfs run there's still perhaps a chink of light and reasons to be hopeful if not cheerful the fact that local radio here in the Cork region carried a story earlier today which said Ireland could be in for a bitterly cold and wintry January, with the possible return of the same type weather system that caused The Beast from the East this year. The story went on to say how according to the British Met office the UK is currently in the middle of what's known as Sudden Stratospheric Warming. However, the news item did end on a cautionary note and that needless to say came from a spokesperson representing the Irish met office saying it was too early "yet" to say if we'll get more extreme weather.

[snowangel32]

For me its obvious to see what the problem is the damm limpet high just wont leave us alone and with the vortex just being so damm powerfull around the greenland area we never really get any true WAA getting into the right areas. What's worrying me is America has been relitavly warm and still there is to much energy stopping any attempt for a true ridge. In the New year the models show deep cold heading in to America surely creating more energy and deep depressions in the Atlantic but I for one hope this happens and a deep low pressure system blows our high away and resets the pattern because at the moment its Ground hog day stuck in an endless tango with the Azores high.

[ICE COLD]

Oh yes to the gfs para . 

[snowangel32]

8 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Amidst all the doom and gloom coming off the back of the latest gfs run there's still perhaps a chink of light and reasons to be hopeful if not cheerful the fact that local radio here in the Cork region carried a story earlier today which said Ireland could be in for a bitterly cold and wintry January, with the possible return of the same type weather system that caused The Beast from the East this year. The story went on to say how according to the British Met office the UK is currently in the middle of what's known as Sudden Stratospheric Warming. However, the news item did end on a cautionary note and that needless to say came from a spokesperson representing the Irish met office saying it was too early "yet" to say if we'll get more extreme weather.

Mate to be honest I think they are just as clueless as all of us. The SSW has started give it another week to show its hand and then we might get a better picture because currently the models have no continuity just like the experts on Twitter and the Met and so forth. No one truly knows what will happen imo.

[feb1991blizzard]

26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Still don’t see quick but more evidence that a response within 10/12 days of the reversal is showing 

gfsp better amplification again .... and it could be argued that it’s 00z run shows a trop response of sorts by mid month with some higher anomolys draped across the pole .... the gefs certainly repsonding as the Atlantic looks to be less aggressive 

Thats the concern i have right now, could it be that the fact that the split isn't wide enough in the strat and looks like it starts to re-phase too quickly mean that all we are going to get is brief Atlantic ridges, it looks like the response will include higher heights over the pole as the vortex / vortices are pushed south towards us but will there be any long lasting heights just to the North.

EDIT - i would take that GFS(p) run all day.

Edited December 29, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[GeordieX9v]

High pressure dominant throughout on the para.

[Jason74]

8 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Mate to be honest I think they are just as clueless as all of us. The SSW has started give it another week to show its hand and then we might get a better picture because currently the models have no continuity just like the experts on Twitter and the Met and so forth. No one truly knows what will happen imo.

And this, in a nutshell. Sums things up perfectly re. the current model output. 

[summer blizzard]

As per yesterday my message to you all is that your still too depressed. 

GEFS still splits the tropospheric vortex by the 11th and has a solid -AO signal by the end.

GEFS (P) is actually more agressive.

So long as this continues to move closer, we are still looking good for mid month.

Edited December 29, 2018 by summer blizzard

[Rayth]

This should keep the hunt ticking along 

 

[Frosty.]

OMG the 6z is vile..where is the cold and snow we crave?...still no sign!..the hunt for cold goes on..and on..and on..shockingly poor output..give me cold zonal and I will be happy..no chance!..abysmal is how I will describe the current situation!

Edited December 29, 2018 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

All this apparent chaos must be a good thing long-term, I think; it seems as though the models are starting to pick-up on SSW-signals but don't know what to do with them. Getting rid of our resident anticyclone might be a good place to start, however...?

[Guest]

The trend is clear with periods of WAA over the UK followed by HP. I’m not confident a brief SSW will change this pattern.

Hopefully it’ll break middle to end of January but for me the hunt for cold won’t be starting until February.

[Tim Bland]

8 minutes ago, Raythan said:

This should keep the hunt ticking along 

 

I wonder which ‘models’ they are referring to ? Does  Meteogroup have access to Mogreps?

[Purga]

P17 will do nicely to cheer us all up.

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I wonder which ‘models’ they are referring to ? Does  Meteogroup have access to Mogreps?

I thought they generated their forecasts predominently using the ECM. Imagine this is based on the EC46.

Their track record of being correct is not great judging by the ever-changing nature of the BBC forecasts these days. 

[Man With Beard]

Well this morning's clusters are not without interest.

First the short term - the current D5 charts are very similar to what they were predicting 8-10 days ago - nice job ensembles! Could be some nice surface cold there (if you like that):

Onto D10; clusters 3 and 5 are very interesting, with possible undercut to the SW or from the east:

Now these are minor clusters at the moment, but already twice since November the ECM has latched onto what was a minor cluster at D10 which allowed more of an easterly influence. Other clusters favour the UK high with jury out on a cold high or a westerly influenced mild high by this stage. Perhaps the main thing is that the Altantic looks far less active than was being predicted 48 hours ago.

Onto D12/D13: Interesting again, on both clusters:

Cluster 1 looks like a continuation of blocking local to the UK (again, a shift from unsettled clusters being prominent) - potential for the high to be positioned a little to the west, too. Cluster 2 looks like a potential battle between east and west - probably with the Atlantic winning but again could result in an undercut.

By D15, the signals go totally fuzzy and no forecast is possible on this alone:

So mid-Jan looks like it's going to be a struggle for the models. But before then, quite large changes in the D8-D13 period, with genuine cold options now back on the table.