Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Whats the composition of the upper cold clustering, ie - mainly Northerly, mainly Easterly or combination of both?

Both - key thing seems to be a reduction in the oomph in the Atlantic, rather than a specific type of block. 

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

It’s the extra-tropical forcing captured by the GWO heading through phases 5-6 as AAM surges upward

Rarley do I outright dismiss a model run from just a week’s range onward but the GFS 18z deserves that treatment. At least there are hints of a less organised vortex but otherwise... try again GFS!

Yeah im really struggling with the way the op GFS runs are dealing with the setup, the way it is effortlessly brushing our high to the side after doing a real shoddy job to start with.

Interesting to note that the GFS para has higher resolution and is starting to see a different solution to the GFS op run at 144hrs. Doesn't necessarily mean any prolonged cold yet, but sets up the pattern in a way that if the AO did tank we'd get a pretty rapid response here.

[booferking]

Quite a few GEFS going for greenie high but likely another false alarm.

[Weathizard]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Another upgrade alert! So many it's untrue

Upgrading what? There’s not a plausible way the chart leads to anything noteworthy, the lobe of death and pressure to our south being the biggest problems, the only possible way is the undercut and that won’t happen because the high has nowhere to go so just keeps building. Upgrades if you live in Greece maybe.

[blizzard81]

Really liking the look of the GFS 18z para. That low over Finland looks like it will sink naturally under rising pressure on it's north west flank - our possible scandi high

[kold weather]

Id suggest the para GFS by 192hrs would be getting pretty cold at the surface, SE drift often results in stubborn fog and pretty surpressed maxes.

Also the ensembles are slowly improving again in general.

[ICE COLD]

T186 on the para looking interesting again

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Upgrading what? There’s not a plausible way the chart leads to anything noteworthy, the lobe of death and pressure to our south being the biggest problems, the only possible way is the undercut and that won’t happen because the high has nowhere to go so just keeps building. Upgrades if you live in Greece maybe.

Did you not view the GFS 12z Para or for that matter the ongoing 18z para?

[GeordieX9v]

The strat is certainly taking a battering.

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Upgrading what? There’s not a plausible way the chart leads to anything noteworthy, the lobe of death and pressure to our south being the biggest problems, the only possible way is the undercut and that won’t happen because the high has nowhere to go so just keeps building. Upgrades if you live in Greece maybe.

Are you saying you don't see any potential in this chart at all? Are you not seeing any upgrades today at all? Seriously?

[ALL ABOARD]

7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Upgrading what? There’s not a plausible way the chart leads to anything noteworthy, the lobe of death and pressure to our south being the biggest problems, the only possible way is the undercut and that won’t happen because the high has nowhere to go so just keeps building. Upgrades if you live in Greece maybe.

There's no plausible way apart from the way it's going then?

First signs of a southerly tracking jet that wants to undercut the high. Amen. 

[ICE COLD]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Id suggest the para GFS by 192hrs would be getting pretty cold at the surface, SE drift often results in stubborn fog and pretty surpressed maxes.

Also the ensembles are slowly improving again in general.

Looks freezing by day

[summer blizzard]

30 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The burning question is why more Nina than Nino? I wonder if anybody has any theories on this?

Anomolous trade surge in the eastern pacific.

[Weathizard]

10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Did you not view the GFS 12z Para or for that matter the ongoing 18z para?

I’m watching it roll out right now, and whilst it’s more interesting than some of the other dross being modelled at the moment it’s still not going to lead anywhere significant.

Call me a glass half empty but even with these significant upgrades as you suggest, there’s really nothing THAT significant showing up, until that lobe of the vortex moves or is impacted by the SSW it’s going to be a serious struggle in my opinion, I also think a GH is radically more likely than a scandi one.

Just my personal opinion but I’m looking longer term.

Edited December 28, 2018 by Weathizard

[Bristawl Si]

2 hours ago, s4lancia said:

Currently January 1st, give or take a day.

According to UK Meto it's already started

[blizzard81]

Great continuity between the GFS Para 12z run and 18z run. Not identical by any means but the trend is the same.

[ICE COLD]

T240 on the para . Freezing at ground level . Bringing the soil temps down , ready for the dumpings of snow that’s coming ?

[Don]

Just now, Bristle boy said:

According to UK Meto it's already started

Yes, that was my understanding also.

[GeordieX9v]

Getting rather messy towards the end it is the 18z afterall.

[blizzard81]

12 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I’m watching it roll out right now, and whilst it’s more interesting than some of the other dross being modelled at the moment it’s still not going to lead anywhere significant.

Call me a glass half empty but even with these significant upgrades as you suggest, there’s really nothing THAT significant showing up, until that lobe of the vortex moves or is impacted by the SSW it’s going to be a serious struggle in my opinion, I also think a GH is radically more likely than a scandi one.

Just my personal opinion but I’m looking longer term.

I respect your opinions just like I respect everyone else's opinions on this forum. Time will tell as always. Onto the 00z runs. I for one will be looking for further amplification upgrades that we have seen throughout the course of today.

[blizzard81]

Latest fax chart for next weds - first day back to work for many, including me.The cold, seasonal feel with frost all day and possible freezing fog will make the return to work more bearable for me  Also an impressive surge of cold into mainland Europe. We will be very grateful for this a week or so down the line.

Edited December 29, 2018 by blizzard81

[SLEETY]

Another failed attempt at much colder weather unless the high has been modeled wrong, needs to be 500 miles further n and w. What a frustrating country UK is for cold, should all just visit Canada in January, save all the frustration in here every single winter

[GeordieX9v]

12z vs 18z and why it's not worth hanging on each run f1.

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Another failed attempt at much colder weather unless the high has been modeled wrong, needs to be 500 miles further n and w. What a frustrating country UK is for cold, should all just visit Canada in January, save all the frustration in here every single winter

We really could be in a much more dismal position as we enter a new year. In fact I can't remember entering a New Year on such a cold, anticyclonic note. 

[karlos1983]

Definitely starting to like the look of the ensembles now! Progressing nicely 

got a distinct tight bunch of members going cold from around D9/10

watch that grow  

Edited December 29, 2018 by karlos1983