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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Its running out of steam!!

image.thumb.png.cf43400bdc90d5d7203f23a229ee62fd.png

Look at the bigger picture, just 2 days ago I remember seeing a raging vortex!

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
Just now, tomjwlx said:

Its running out of steam!!

image.thumb.png.cf43400bdc90d5d7203f23a229ee62fd.png

Look at the bigger picture, just 2 days ago I remember seeing a raging vortex!

Yes - was just looking at the various vortex chunks dotted about .....but  main centre Siberia with a daughter far nw Hudson’s and thinking it looked much less compact and organised ........

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Yes - was just looking at the various vortex chunks dotted about .....but  main centre Siberia with a daughter far nw Hudson’s and thinking it looked much less compact and organised ........

But are you grasping at straws Nick?

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

One has to say the continued lack of response from the GFS is something to keep an eye on.  I’m not liking the next ridge being flattened or ‘failing to hold’.  This is a watch zone.....It could be one of them winters.....but we watch and wait.  If we had the snow, the HP would bring much lower minima and might hold better.......

 

BFTP

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Putting aside the SSW , the MJO continues to develop into the Da Vinci Code !

Bizarely the best output tonight in terms of overall NH pattern the ECM has the least favourable MJO forecast .

The GFS which has the best MJO is less than inspiring .

Which suggests either the ECM is factoring in some SSW element or the MJO forecasts are wrong .

And the plot thickens because the VP 200 , basically an alternative way to measure it show continued movement to the more favourable phases .

The MacRitchie one , another measure has a strong MJO moving into the better phases .

So for the timebeing we’re going to have to wait a few more days to see what’s happening on that front .

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
Just now, nick sussex said:

Putting aside the SSW , the MJO continues to develop into the Da Vinci Code !

Bizarely the best output tonight in terms of overall NH pattern the ECM has the least favourable MJO forecast .

The GFS which has the best MJO is less than inspiring .

Which suggests either the ECM is factoring in some SSW element or the MJO forecasts are wrong .

And the plot thickens because the VP 200 , basically an alternative way to measure it show continued movement to the more favourable phases .

The MacRitchie one , another measure has a strong MJO moving into the better phases .

So for the timebeing we’re going to have to wait a few more days to see what’s happening on that front .

Was watching a bastardi video earlier where he pointed out that the southern oscillation index over the past 30 days is more Nina than nino and the MJO analogues could be affected. Over the next ten days the index reverts more to Niño again .... evidently there remain some diffs between gfs and ecm in the s Pacific in any case ...

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

The GFS operationals have been dragging out the same theme repeatedly enough to drive a weather enthusiast who likes snow in the winter to despair, another week of anticyclonic gloom, albeit turning a little colder end of next week. Then a return to Atlantic mobility.

Thank goodness we have the uncertainty caveat beyond day 7 given we don’t know how well the models will react to the SSW and SPV split. Oh and I think going away for a few days with family for a New Year’s break is maybe a good excuse for me to perhaps take a break from model watching angst too!

Just hope the models start to firm up on something interesting in Jan by the time we start January, though at this rate it could be mid January.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Was watching a bastardi video earlier where he pointed out that the southern oscillation index over the past 30 days is more Nina than nino and the MJO analogues could be affected. Over the next ten days the index reverts more to Niño again .... evidently there remain some diffs between gfs and ecm in the s Pacific in any case ...

Interesting thanks BA.  It’s quite strange though , I can’t remember the models disagreeing this much over the MJO before so that issue you posted could be quite relevant .

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted
8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The GFS operationals have been dragging out the same theme repeatedly enough to drive a weather enthusiast who likes snow in the winter to despair, another week of anticyclonic gloom, albeit turning a little colder end of next week. Then a return to Atlantic mobility.

Thank goodness we have the uncertainty caveat beyond day 7 given we don’t know how well the models will react to the SSW and SPV split. Oh and I think going away for a few days with family for a New Year’s break is maybe a good excuse for me to perhaps take a break from model watching angst too!

Just hope the models start to firm up on something interesting in Jan by the time we start January, though at this rate it could be mid January.

Agree might be a good time to take a break from model watching - whilst things stay in a state of flux and come back on 2 January - surely things will be clearer then? or maybe not..

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just observing the direction of travel ........ (as illustrated earlier by the notable changes in the eps mean) 

OK but we're seeing another far from inspiring GFS run!

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

One has to say the continued lack of response from the GFS is something to keep an eye on.  I’m not liking the next ridge being flattened or ‘failing to hold’.  This is a watch zone.....It could be one of them winters.....but we watch and wait.  If we had the snow, the HP would bring much lower minima and might hold better.......

 

BFTP

What might be worth noting is just how poorly it is forecasting this upcoming HP spell and how far north it gets, it was only 24hrs ago that the HP was already heading into Europe by day 4/5. Today it has the upper high extending way North as per other models. Sometimes the presents giv s a hint to the future...

This is IMO a rather big clue that the GFS is not doing a great job at honing in on the pattern in our neck of the woods and doing what it always does, brushing away any HP too rapidly. I suspect the longer term  forecast at some point is going to snap back, just like it has with this current HP.

At least it's slowly smelling the coffee with regards to the PV strength down the line, but I feel there is more to come and then it just comes down to luck of the draw with locations 

Edited by kold weather
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Was watching a bastardi video earlier where he pointed out that the southern oscillation index over the past 30 days is more Nina than nino and the MJO analogues could be affected. Over the next ten days the index reverts more to Niño again .... evidently there remain some diffs between gfs and ecm in the s Pacific in any case ...

The burning question is why more Nina than Nino? I wonder if anybody has any theories on this?

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E17boy Seasoned

E17boy

Posted
Posted

Good evening people

Hope you all are ok and well and hope you have had a lovely Christmas. 

Well the hunt continues, it's been another one of those quite days today here in Walthamstow where you know the weather is not going to do anything . It's like being in no mans land and to be honest I am a bit fed up with this high pressure setup, I rather prefer the weather to be moving which allows more chance of quick changes to happen. 

So the SSW is well underway and in about two weeks time we will be buried in snow. I wish this comment was the only outcome that could happen but unfortunately it's not a definately answer. this raises the following outcomes that we could face going forward. 

1 - The current SSW makes our dreams come true we have the models catch on and everything falls in place and in a couple of weeks frozen Britain is the headline.

2- The current SSW has an effect but our little island misses out and we are heartbroken in other words we end up with no Freeze. 

3- The current high pressure in control of the weather could collapse and move off into central or southeastern Europe and we get stuck then in a south westerly pattern. This could linger for ages ( I know we don't want to think of this but if the SSW does not help us then this certainly could be an outcome).

4- the high could be shunted to Iceland or Scandinavia and this is what we want deep cold from Siberia Beast from the East again 

I am no expert but from my understanding and being honest I think the above could be quite plausible outcomes going forward . 

Whether we are going to be winners or losers from this SSW no one knows yet, all I can say is that next few weeks are going to be challenging and tense on here. Let's hope our little island is in a lucky place and we get the opportunity to take those great snapshots and want to remember this winter. Fingers crossed and let's keep our heads up peeps. 

The search for our winter wonderland continued

take care for now all

kind regards

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Here’s the GFS para at T96 and it’s looking good . Unfortunately it’s froze at the min , typical ☹️

724F129F-D34E-4ACB-AA6C-04C2BBB99689.png

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

How did I know this was coming? GFS para stuck on 96hrs!

It’s on the move now

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted
22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Putting aside the SSW , the MJO continues to develop into the Da Vinci Code !

Bizarely the best output tonight in terms of overall NH pattern the ECM has the least favourable MJO forecast .

The GFS which has the best MJO is less than inspiring .

Which suggests either the ECM is factoring in some SSW element or the MJO forecasts are wrong .

And the plot thickens because the VP 200 , basically an alternative way to measure it show continued movement to the more favourable phases .

The MacRitchie one , another measure has a strong MJO moving into the better phases .

So for the timebeing we’re going to have to wait a few more days to see what’s happening on that front .

It’s the extra-tropical forcing captured by the GWO heading through phases 5-6 as AAM surges upward.

GFS has such a strong MJO in phases 5-6 that the tropical response reaches a magnitude capable of dictating the mid-lay patterns by overwhelming the extra-tropical contribution... or at least, so GFS presumes. I have a feeling it overdoes the MJO’s relative ‘power’ anyway.

 

Rarley do I outright dismiss a model run from just a week’s range onward but the GFS 18z deserves that treatment. At least there are hints of a less organised vortex but otherwise... try again GFS!

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