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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Out to 192 and it looks to be lining up?

image.thumb.png.6627ea92bf6613876539bcd22ab4eb02.png  image.thumb.png.cf7a4af7a9c8c8eb181721b603898057.png

Getting tantalisingly close now!!!

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

A big improvement!

Split across the pole too.

60BD3107-5361-4B4A-BBAB-E5BF79D929D5.png

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Hmmmm, where is that Azores High headed on the ECM 12z at 192?

ECMOPNH12_192_1.thumb.png.d7343186de49941b95d37ff4b85d04c8.png

Encouraging!

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Messy but interesting sums up the ECM so far. Shortwave energy flying all over the place .

Another one over the North Sea at day 8.

Overall miles better than the GFS.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

192!!!!!!

Capture.thumb.PNG.b2a413fc8a8ed5d58a5dad5c2c6bc45c.PNG

good chart, potential ice days there, miles better than the absolute crap GFS 06Z was going for, Atlantic in on 4th

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Where did all them zonal runs go...

997871FB-B4E9-4537-A6C9-4A1382B492FA.thumb.jpeg.70a5ffbdcf1d90c6fbb9fd1ce1ea88d2.jpeg

Atlantic what Atlantic ! Very encouraging from the ECM so far .

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

ECH1-192.GIF?28-0

It is going to need a little help this run, no quick route to cold (upper air) but a slow burner.

It sets us up nicely in the run up to the New Year.

Edited by Mucka
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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted

Here was me worrying Chris Fawkes had access to GLOSEA when in actual fact he was basing his no downwelling fearmongering on the GEFS . It is the very worst of the most common stratosphere models.

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

ECH1-192.GIF?28-0

It is going to need a little help this run, no quick route to cold but a slow burner.

It sets us up nicely int he run up tot he New Year.

It has the right idea though. Iceland/the sea above the UK should be a low pressure no go zone during the first week of Jan.

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A Frayed Knot Community Regular

A Frayed Knot

Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
Posted
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

ECH1-192.GIF?28-0

It is going to need a little help this run, no quick route to cold but a slow burner.

It sets us up nicely int he run up tot he New Year.

Can I have some of what you are drinking please

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted

Meto announcement late this afternoon:

We can confirm a sudden stratospheric warming is underway high up in the atmosphere, however this does not mean we will end up with a 'Beast from the East' and heavy snowfall," Nicola Maxey of the Met Office said. "The impacts from this event take around two weeks to be felt at ground level and as of yet it is too early to say exactly how this event will impact the weather here in the UK." She continued: "It was a similar situation that resulted in the cold weather we experienced in February and March however an SSW does not always result in heavy snowfall. "It often leads to a blocking pattern which disrupts the westerly weather patterns that are predominate in the UK."

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted
1 hour ago, LRD said:

Afraid to say that I agree. GFS has even dropped the idea of a NW'ly or N'ly in FI now. 

I also agree with Frosty - I don't want this very boring high hanging around for much longer. The MO see an unsettled spell as a precursor to the cold weather that they are still seeing for the 2nd half of January, so surely it's a good thing if this high gets out of the way? It hanging around like a bad smell is just eating time

For all those worrying, here’s a refreshing example of how quick things can turn around. 

43DCA403-DF02-4D20-B473-672576E21FEB.png

C574C5D0-6909-495D-8C94-CEBE4AE94B38.png

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

For all those worrying, here’s a refreshing example of how quick things can turn around. 

43DCA403-DF02-4D20-B473-672576E21FEB.png

C574C5D0-6909-495D-8C94-CEBE4AE94B38.png

Lovely Siberian ridge there

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

chance of fog/rime frost? can look as good as snow! 2 fingers up to earlier GFS cold zonal runs!

ECM1-216.GIF?28-0

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

I’m always a little concerned that when we have 2 outputs like this we end some where in the middle. We may get nearer to the ecm but we actually need the ecm to back west from where it is and I’m doubting that will happen. There is still time but I think it’s another  close call but not not close enough. 

3654713E-1948-43A4-BD4A-BE166F997638.png

FECBBC0F-7801-464E-A054-E7F8A0431EC5.png

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
1 minute ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Can I have some of what you are drinking please

Not sure what you mean. You could see by 192 there was no easterly with energy over the top and no undercut.

Like I said, a slow burner with reinforcements required. 

Let's hope the models can keep improving the cold chances over the next few days but as yet there is no "cold signal," only the promise one may be around the corner.

fingers crossed.

 

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

And the ecm goes confused.com at day 9. No worries from me though. Don't go beyond day 5 at the moment. Anyone who can't see the short term upgrades today need to go to specsavers. Most of the best cold spells are born out of upgrades at very short notice. 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.812f98c777cbb2d7d9c5be9968049a9b.jpg

I think we're now at the point wrt SSW that we can get a rapid change in model output in 10 day timeframe, and that is what we are seeing.

Edited by Mike Poole
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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
Just now, blizzard81 said:

And the ecm goes confused.com at day 9. No worries from me though. Don't go beyond day 5 at the moment. Anyone who can't see the short term upgrades today need to go to specsavers. Most of the best cold spells are born out of upgrades at very short notice. 

ECM 240 looks ok. Can definitely see a route to a cold pattern for the UK from that

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

Where’s @IDO gone . Lovely run from the ECM and the para very good too . Some nice cold days and frosty nights if that comes of .

D12C9207-5D89-44A5-A579-A2F7D39D4956.png

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

And the ecm goes confused.com at day 9. No worries from me though. Don't go beyond day 5 at the moment. Anyone who can't see the short term upgrades today need to go to specsavers. Most of the best cold spells are born out of upgrades at very short notice. 

It won't take much by the ECM tweaking day 5+ to have the forum in meltdown.

It would be great to have cross model support for a cold spell by New Year.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
10 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Here was me worrying Chris Fawkes had access to GLOSEA when in actual fact he was basing his no downwelling fearmongering on the GEFS . It is the very worst of the most common stratosphere models.

How do you know he was using GEFS and not GLOSEA?

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