Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Ali1977]

Look for signs, PV much less organised at T300, let’s see how that plays out in the FI ENS 

[phil nw.]

Compared to yesterday's 12z GFS at day 7 has held back the Atlantic and continued with the ridging

so the westward adjustment continues into the medium term.This more in line with the earlier ECM/GEPs means showing the earlier gefs more progressive and less amplified with the Atlantic in roads.

I posted earlier in the other thread on the flatter looking gefs so in this situation where zonal winds are on the decrease view later gefs with this flatter bias with caution. 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

22 minutes ago, IDO said:

Agree and to be expected, always a correction with the Atlantic with the GFS. However all a bit academic as being clipped by the cold uppers under a high will only give us 36 hours of cold upper flow, no snow, and I for one have been looking at the synoptic rather than a brief cold spurt! That being, can we get the high to build NE, even on this run the UK high is a sinker? Slower than the 06z thankfully, which was a typical GFS mystical run.

Do you think that we can get anything like an HLB from this scenario?

 

No I don't at all think high latitude block is possible.

Reason way to much energy going over the top of the block.

I've been very frustrated by the lack of high latitude blocking before the vortex got on a mission before the stratosphere warming there was a Scandinavian ridge which was robust giving some a snow event but since then it's been rather disappointing.

 

Although not discounting anything further into January it all looks a mess.

If the UK high can move to our west or northwest this would be ideal but none of the models ATM are seeing this as a possible outcome.

[inghams85]

4 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

No I don't at all think high latitude block is possible.

Reason way to much energy going over the top of the block.

I've been very frustrated by the lack of high latitude blocking before the vortex got on a mission before the stratosphere warming there was a Scandinavian ridge which was robust giving some a snow event but since then it's been rather disappointing.

 

Although not discounting anything further into January it all looks a mess.

If the UK high can move to our west or northwest this would be ideal but none of the models ATM are seeing this as a possible outcome.

How can they see it as a possible outcome when at that resolution they can't yet factor in changes in the tropics and stratosphere 100%? Again your taking things at face value instead of using background signals to second guess the outcome

[mountain shadow]

No sugar coating how poor the models are. The brief ridging attempt in around 5 to 7 days will fail then we're off in search of a response to the SSW in far FI.

 

 

[snowfish1]

34 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I fail to see why people are getting worried about charts for day 6 or 7. The Meto extended forecast still says mid Jan for a change to cold.  Taking that literally then the 15/16th of Jan is still 18/19 days away with operational runs that go out to 7 /10 and 16 days respectively on ukmo.ecm and GFS. 

So what is anyone expecting to see at day 7 in this situation?

Another sensible post. Thank goodness. The charts cannot possibly reflect sometime that is progged for middle of Jan accurately 

[Duane S.]

Cursory glance at most of the ens, now up to day 6 and much more amplified in general than the 06z. The big question, can any of them do anything of any note with it. 

[swfc]

32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You have just contradicted your previous posts IDO..

You have based 99% of your posts on GEFS day 10 and 16 means ..usually trumpetting zonal outcomes..

In reality the model cant  get things right at day 5 LOL!!

Now you are turning your attention to belittling any potential cold to comments like 36 hour brief spurt and no snow etc..

I honestly dont understand why you are posting in this thread.. its the hunt for cold thread, not the lets see how much negativity i can inject thread..

 

And you could have pm that to him but it's got you the likes ete!!! Anyway freedom of speech and all  that tweeted Paul Hudson and reply stated all to play for!. hopefully over the next seven days ete things nhp wise could improve ie PV movement and blocking on the model output

Edited December 28, 2018 by swfc

[LRD]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

No sugar coating how poor the models are. The brief ridging attempt in around 5 to 7 days will fail then we're off in search of a response to the SSW in far FI.

 

 

Afraid to say that I agree. GFS has even dropped the idea of a NW'ly or N'ly in FI now. 

I also agree with Frosty - I don't want this very boring high hanging around for much longer. The MO see an unsettled spell as a precursor to the cold weather that they are still seeing for the 2nd half of January, so surely it's a good thing if this high gets out of the way? It hanging around like a bad smell is just eating time

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Thers is in the ensembles. But in the operationals probably not really. Your better off looking at changes up to 168 to find trends n tie in known model bias to see a pathway. The increased amplification is a good first step. It probably ties in with the tropics which will aid the stratospheric split which will aid the chances of propogation 

Can't see how negotiating model-biases will provide a pathway to anywhere, myself: the accumulation of algorithmic error will have no effect on the actual weather anyway, and the effects of the SSW won't (as we keep being correctly reminded) appear in the models for another two-weeks or so...

The models do not control the weather...

[seabreeze86]

Thats a big correction on the GEFS at 132hrs

[SLEETY]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Afraid to say that I agree. GFS has even dropped the idea of a NW'ly or N'ly in FI now. 

I also agree with Frosty - I don't want this very boring high hanging around for much longer. The MO see an unsettled spell as a precursor to the cold weather that they are still seeing for the 2nd half of January, so surely it's a good thing if this high gets out of the way? It hanging around like a bad smell is just eating time

why should we believe anything in fl from gfs when it’s been hundreds of miles incorrect just 5 days ahead,as steve and others pointed out.The obsession some have with gfs is tiresome,it’s a very poor model ,the stats back that up too.

 

 

 

[inghams85]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Can't see how negotiating model-biases will provide a pathway to anywhere, myself: the accumulation of algorithmic error will have no effect on the actual weather anyway, and the effects of the SSW won't (as we keep being correctly reminded) appear in the models for another two-weeks or so...

The models do not control the weather...

It gives us an idea on whether a model is incorrectly heading down the wrong pathway. The butterfly effect and all that. If we know corrections west will happen within a set timescale for instance this impacts wave breaking which impacts the type of warming and split and eventual FI of runs etc

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Thats a big correction on the GEFS at 132hrs

Yes good old GFS finally getting there!

Also of note the jet trying to cut back sw , still the pattern is too far east  and south but the zonal reversal is due tomorrow , can we squeeze some more changes in as that happens .

We await the ECM!

[LRD]

Crikey, GEM is even worse (yes, I know it's the GEM but it's still a model and I'm hunting for cold. And can't find any)

 

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

why should we believe anything in fl from gfs when it’s been hundreds of miles incorrect just 5 days ahead,as steve and others pointed out.The obsession some have with gfs is tiresome,it’s a very poor model ,the stats back that up too.

 

 

 

Because it's a model. And I'm talking about a model in a model thread dedicated to looking for cold. As there is none in prospect short term, I';ll try and find it longer term. I'm well aware of the weaknesses in the models after day 6. But there were a few runs where cold was showing in FI. Enough that you could almost call a trend. That trend has now been dropped

Edited December 28, 2018 by LRD

[Mr Frost]

10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Can't see how negotiating model-biases will provide a pathway to anywhere, myself: the accumulation of algorithmic error will have no effect on the actual weather anyway, and the effects of the SSW won't (as we keep being correctly reminded) appear in the models for another two-weeks or so...

The models do not control the weather...

Big Steve Murr’s negotiating model-biases posts are helping myself and others learn how to understand the ins and outs of certain model bias regarding Westwards/Eastwards movements. It is providing me a pathway to a better handle on reading/anticipating charts.

I sense there is a bit of jealousy of Steve’s knowledge/understanding of the Weather on this forum from certain members...not including you Ed as I enjoy yer daily posts and thoughts. 

Anyways let’s all hope we all see snowfall in January - if not let’s all chip in some money and get a Netweather forum members trip to the Arctic circle sorted out!

Edited December 28, 2018 by Mr Frost

[johnholmes]

5 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

It gives us an idea on whether a model is incorrectly heading down the wrong pathway. The butterfly effect and all that. If we know corrections west will happen within a set timescale for instance this impacts wave breaking which impacts the type of warming and split and eventual FI of runs etc

The presupposes we know what the correct path is. How does one know this? Who is to say that this particular SSW will deliver anyway?

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, LRD said:

Crikey, GEM is even worse (yes, I know it's the GEM but it's still a model and I'm hunting for cold. And can't find any)

 

Be careful with your wording here!!!all joking apart let's hope January brings at least a cold snap otherwise I may consider moving to Norway

[Duane S.]

GEFS keen on moving EU high pressure west around D10. Could lead to good things.

[LRD]

Just now, swfc said:

Be careful with your wording here!!!all joking apart let's hope January brings at least a cold snap otherwise I may consider moving to Norway

Ha ha!

It looks bad now but, despite my last few posts, I am sill cautiously optimistic that something of cold significance will happen this winter. A lot of respected weather folk on here and elsewhere are fairly bullish about it. No guarantees of course but the SSW modelling gives me hope that it will eventually downwell and impact Europe (especially NW and North Europe) in a snowy way

[johnholmes]

Perhaps someone with more understanding of the possible effects of temperature 'spokes' at 30 mb over the pole could pass comment on this please?

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

[inghams85]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The presupposes we know what the correct path is. How does one know this? Who is to say that this particular SSW will deliver anyway?

No one knows 100% what the correct path is it's the weather. But we know about weather model bias. We knew the GFS would back West with the pattern because we know how this model works and we know based on things like this and background drivers what is more likely to happen. 

[swfc]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

Ha ha!

It looks bad now but, despite my last few posts, I am sill cautiously optimistic that something of cold significance will happen this winter. A lot of respected weather folk on here and elsewhere are fairly bullish about it. No guarantees of course but the SSW modelling gives me hope that it will eventually downwell and impact Europe (especially NW and North Europe) in a snowy way

I'm an old weather watcher of 50 years.never underestimate the weather in the UK.its has complicated as a female lol.hopefully the mfi and b+q will fall our way and deliver

[blizzard81]

To all those sceptical of how much things can change for the better in the 6 day timeframe, look at yesterday's 156hr gfs para and compare to this evening's 132hr chart