Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[blizzard81]

24 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

If there is any chance at all of more amplification up towards Northern Scandi at that crucial 120/144 hour mark, it has to happen on today's 12z runs. I think it is now a long shot but I haven't given up all hope just yet. 

However, putting my pragmatic hat on, there has been absolutely no appetite at all for the high over the UK in 5 days time to migrate towards Scandi. We do have to be realistic about this. 

[Met4Cast]

What an incredibly dull, boring period of weather we're currently experiencing.

Not much interest on the models/ensembles either aside from a few glancing blows at times. The SSW is well underway now, however.

ECM/GFS converging on a split occurring so that's something at least. NWP wont have a handle on the aftermath yet, a QTR for now looking unlikely so early Jan probably not going to develop the "goods". Towards mid-January though perhaps a different story.

[nick sussex]

Looking at the ECM ensemble spreads a pretty typical situation in these set ups with the largest spread running ne sw towards southern France .

London is at the colder end of solutions because the UK often has less margin for error with cold advection from high pressure towards Scandi .

The models often have problems with the jet track because you need this cutting back sw towards the Low Countries .

The downstream impacts from small changes upstream can result in large swings in temperature within the current set up.

Globally a shift east or west by a hundred or so miles is nothing in the terms of overall NH pattern but makes a marked difference to the UK.

Looking towards tonights outputs they key timeframe is within day 6 because you need any high sufficiently north before this topples.

 

 

[Frosty.]

29 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Fingers crossed, this turgid mild benign pattern is a winter killer, looking forward to some potential wintry cold zonal action!

Thankfully there is a signal that we may see a change from this incredibly dull boring mild  benign pattern with high pressure to the south which from a wintry perspective is horrendous!!..there are signs that there could be some cold zonality in the not too distant future and that mid Jan flip towards wintry nirvana signal is still alive..hopefully some better output to come!!!!

[MattStoke]

I’m guessing the GFS didn’t move towards the mighty ICON after all, seeing as no-one is posting about it today.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Patience is key. I’m still going to say the end of January will be when we get a cold shot. Even toppler highs have delivered the goods before. Does January 2003 crop up in anyone’s mind? That was an amazing snow fest down here, albeit, short lived. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, MattStoke said:

I’m guessing the GFS didn’t move towards the mighty ICON after all, seeing as no-one is posting about it today.

Nope, GFS being GFS and resolutely sticking to its flat zonal runs..

 

[Frosty.]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Nope, GFS being GFS and resolutely sticking to its flat zonal runs..

 

Good, anything is better than the current cr*p!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Patience is key. I’m still going to say the end of January will be when we get a cold shot. Even toppler highs have delivered the goods before. Does January 2003 crop up in anyone’s mind? That was an amazing snow fest down here, albeit, short lived. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Naa, this is the one. 

As good a northerly as I can remember, certainly in my lifetime. 

Edited December 28, 2018 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[danm]

9 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Patience is key. I’m still going to say the end of January will be when we get a cold shot. Even toppler highs have delivered the goods before. Does January 2003 crop up in anyone’s mind? That was an amazing snow fest down here, albeit, short lived. 

8th Jan 2003 gave us our heaviest snowfall in London/Essex at the time since Feb ‘91. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Naa, this is the one. 

As good a northerly as I can remember, certainly in my lifetime. 

very snowy for me, few days later! Wed 5th whiteout, perfect angle

[Met4Cast]

12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ahh yes!

The first "thames streamer" in my memory. I was 12 at the time, I don't think I could read weather charts at the time but I was certainly on the way to learning how. Arrived at school and the snow started, 3-4 hours of heavy snowfall eventually convinced them to send us home, 10 minutes after we left the snow stopped and what had settled began to melt, always found that rather funny. 

Great day! 

[A.J]

1 hour ago, Jemma Croton said:

Can no-one remember model watching end of Jan this year? The SSW happened and it was major. The main models did not get reliably on board until maybe a week later showing the trop response.

Even when the SSW has occurred it seems models still struggle to know what to do with it. We had a week or so in Feb thinking this would be a SSW that didn’t produce the goods and then all the models came on board and we had ridonkulus snow end of Feb and into March.

I mean it’s what... 70% of split SSW that give us the good stuff historically so of course there’s more than a bit of a chance this one will sit in the yucky 30% we don’t like to talk about... but we also all know that even the winters that HAVE gone in to be a jackpot... the models have struggled to forecast the trop result at this stage.

By all means don’t count your chickens yet... but also don’t throw the eggs out yet assuming they are all duds yeah??!!

Both myself and several others have posted in a similar vein to your post over the the past week or two, but such posts are generally forgotten/ignored by members who obsess over every run from every model and put 2+2 together and get 40 different answers and then reach for the prozac in a desperate attempt to recover their shattered sanity.....either that or mildy  trolls ignore the above, cherry pick the mildest charts they can find to give them the excuse to flood this thread with reasons why there will be no cold, no snow, nothing but blow torch south westerlies....I just generally stick to a few posters who actually know what they're talking about...after all, as the model output threads often show, a little knowledge is very dangerous 

[Eastnorthwest]

30 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

What an incredibly dull, boring period of weather we're currently experiencing.

Not much interest on the models/ensembles either aside from a few glancing blows at times. The SSW is well underway now, however.

ECM/GFS converging on a split occurring so that's something at least. NWP wont have a handle on the aftermath yet, a QTR for now looking unlikely so early Jan probably not going to develop the "goods". Towards mid-January though perhaps a different story.

 

[Kentspur]

22 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Naa, this is the one. 

As good a northerly as I can remember, certainly in my lifetime. 

Depends where you are the chart before on 09/01/03 was much better for the SE. I got sent home from school early here in NW Kent. It was the biggest snowfall we'd had in years in NW Kent&SE London

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Depends where you are the chart before on 09/01/03 was much better for the SE. I got sent home from school early here in NW Kent. It was the biggest snowfall we'd had in years in NW Kent&SE London

Aye, why I thought it was then, don't remember any here then, maybe a smattering

[Ali1977]

3rd of Jan from the METO, how does this align to GFS/ECM. 

And is this Mogreps ? 

Edited December 28, 2018 by Ali1977

[Eastnorthwest]

35 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

What an incredibly dull, boring period of weather we're currently experiencing.

Not much interest on the models/ensembles either aside from a few glancing blows at times. The SSW is well underway now, however.

ECM/GFS converging on a split occurring so that's something at least. NWP wont have a handle on the aftermath yet, a QTR for now looking unlikely so early Jan probably not going to develop the "goods". Towards mid-January though perhaps a different story.

This could be our best chance of cold if it keeps going,let's face it the charts aren't changing much at the moment are they

[summer blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

3rd of Jan from the METO, how does this align to GFS/ECM. 

And is this Mogreps ? 

That's Euro/UKMO.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

3rd of Jan from the METO, how does this align to GFS/ECM. 

As most people would expect, ignoring GFS garbage.

[Ali1977]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

As most people would expect, ignoring GFS garbage.

Yep, just had a look and it’s nothing like the GFS.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Yep, just had a look and it’s nothing like the GFS.

Which is what i was trying to explain to IDO this morning.

[bluearmy]

Has anyone seen the extended eps??

 

[SLEETY]

how he thought the ecm was like gfs as well is beyond me,having said that in this country mild normally wins if any  model is showing it in fl or whatever timeframe