Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Duane S.]

12 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Chris Fawkes is not convinced the warming is going to affect the troposphere and there will be no reversal of zonal winds.

Regarding not affecting the Troposphere, fair enough if that’s his opinion, plenty of SSWs don’t. What’s his specific reasoning behind it though?

Regards no reversal. I thought he based all his stuff on the GFS ? In which case, I’m not sure what he talking about. It has been showing an u wind reversal as an SSW for ages and is now only about 3 days away. 

Edited December 28, 2018 by s4lancia

[SMU]

9 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Chris Fawkes is not convinced the warming is going to affect the troposphere and there will be no reversal of zonal winds.

The reversal of zonal winds is 100% going to happen- we are at 5 M/S today & the mean in a few days drops to -10 M/S

its the effect on the trop hes reffering to...

Pretty good overnight suite - EPS extended are colder, control is very cold -

GFS 06z edges the colder air west but its painstaking ATM - especially with the GEFS - they are way to far east.

 

[nick sussex]

SSWs are like people , lots of different personalities and mood swings !

I’d urge some caution until the reversal has actually happened . 

[Faronstream]

55 minutes ago, karyo said:

There is no denying that this December has been horrid and it is running 2.2c above the seasonal average!

Out of interest, how often have we had a cold winter month after a December with such a strong warm anomaly?

2,2 above average temperature is nothing, we had 6-8 degrees above average both december 2006 and 2013

[Yorkshirepudding]

53 minutes ago, karyo said:

There is no denying that this December has been horrid and it is running 2.2c above the seasonal average!

Out of interest, how often have we had a cold winter month after a December with such a strong warm anomaly?

I’m sure I’ve seen that some of the worst winters have come after a milder start to the winter. This of course might not be the case this winter but with lots going on in the atmosphere if your a cold lover there could be some exciting times a head going into January. 

[DanDorsetUK]

38 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Are the models not programmed to take stratospheric warming’s and propagation into account? 

Yes they are which is why some of the fi charts have given hints of it and for good reason! It's all still fi! The effects haven't appeared in the models because it's to far out and not enough data for the models to start processing from the lower unless there is a qtr which at the moment there isnt so all you'll get is model bias in fi for the time being untill effects start to show at lower levels. 

Edited December 28, 2018 by Rapodo

[nick sussex]

The GFS P 06 hrs run is an improvement on the earlier run at day 5 .

A westwards shift , less energy spilling east .

Edited December 28, 2018 by nick sussex

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

SSWs are like people , lots of different personalities and mood swings !

I’d urge some caution until the reversal has actually happened . 

Indeed Nick,i think a few newer members should put the brakes on a bit with the outlook over the next month or so imo.

[Jemma Croton]

Can no-one remember model watching end of Jan this year? The SSW happened and it was major. The main models did not get reliably on board until maybe a week later showing the trop response.

Even when the SSW has occurred it seems models still struggle to know what to do with it. We had a week or so in Feb thinking this would be a SSW that didn’t produce the goods and then all the models came on board and we had ridonkulus snow end of Feb and into March.

I mean it’s what... 70% of split SSW that give us the good stuff historically so of course there’s more than a bit of a chance this one will sit in the yucky 30% we don’t like to talk about... but we also all know that even the winters that HAVE gone in to be a jackpot... the models have struggled to forecast the trop result at this stage.

By all means don’t count your chickens yet... but also don’t throw the eggs out yet assuming they are all duds yeah??!!

Edited December 28, 2018 by Jemma Croton

[Penicuikblizzard]

29 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Please no more about Chris Fawkes...we know his thoughts about this winter (he might be right) but he's certainly tweeting every image he can which backs up his thoughts and showing lack of propagation of the down welling...we seem to be hearing more from him than any other Meteorologist or Strat person currently and I don't believe he's one 'hunting' for cold.

He is not posting what he wants it’s what he actually sees in the models,,,a lot on here post charts they want to see which aren’t happening as the cold is always 10+ days away which it has been since November,,,so maybe a mild call is possibly correct 

[DanDorsetUK]

Keep an eye on the final frames of the gfs and see how quickly it changes from a flat zonal to a disrupted vortex. The info is avalible to the models. Look at the last run for example from the 10th to the 13th the signs have already been there on a few runs and its in fi because that's where it belongs there will be no response from the ssw till the 7th. We're a long way from seeing the full effects in the models if at all yet. Hence I give it Monday for it start appearing better in fi. 

[Ali1977]

More positives for Mid Jan, just stay with it folks. With the latest EC46 I can’t see any reason to think cold from mid month shouldn’t happen.

[gottolovethisweather]

1 hour ago, s4lancia said:

Quick Tropospheric Response.

in other words, how quickly the weather in the troposphere gets influenced by the SSW event as it propagates downwards from the stratosphere.

Thanks, @s4lancia

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

He is not posting what he wants it’s what he actually sees in the models,,,a lot on here post charts they want to see which aren’t happening as the cold is always 10+ days away which it has been since November,,,so maybe a mild call is possibly correct 

Well I said he might possibly be correct but I'll stand by my post as I've read some strat posts that say we're in a very 'tentative' phase of the down welling affecting the trop but Chris has largely been using the GFS which has been unfavourable though ECM still shows weakening of zonal winds at 60N in the next week or so...

[Methuselah]

GFS Para @T+240 also very much in-line with the thoughts of the pros; not exactly amplified but hardly flat, either:

 

[karlos1983]

1 hour ago, s4lancia said:

Regarding not affecting the Troposphere, fair enough if that’s his opinion, plenty of SSWs don’t. What’s his specific reasoning behind it though?

Regards no reversal. I thought he based all his stuff on the GFS ? In which case, I’m not sure what he talking about. It has been showing an u wind reversal as an SSW for ages and is now only about 3 days away. 

He seems a bit confused! He’s cherry picked a few images uploaded by multiple people tweeting about the strat and trying his best to have an balanced opinion that matters, but it doesn’t add up to me. I’d much rather read a tweet from him giving specific reasoning for his thoughts, but he seldom does that. Other than “not all SSW affect the trop”. Sorry but that’s not of interest to me, it adds nothing. If it’s not your specialist subject as a meteorologist, probably best not to pass comment to thousands of people . No disrespect meant. #justsaying

Matt Dobson is worth a follow supercell_1996 on Twitter. 

I don’t think anyone really knows what’s going to happen exactly just yet! Very interesting to watch it all unfold.... or not lol

 

Edited December 28, 2018 by karlos1983

[Frosty.]

This may ruffle a few feathers but I don't care!..I hope the Gfs 6z operational is on the right track, I don't want to see high pressure dominating the entire outlook with boring benign conditions, I hope we see some cold zonality at least as we head further into January!!

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This may ruffle a few feathers but I don't care!..I hope the Gfs 6z operational is on the right track, I don't want to see high pressure dominating the entire outlook with boring benign conditions, I hope we see some cold zonality at least as we head further into January!!

Looks like your wish will probably come true. Exeter certainly gunning for zonal after next week, very much in line with the gfs. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This may ruffle a few feathers but I don't care!..I hope the Gfs 6z operational is on the right track, I don't want to see high pressure dominating the entire outlook with boring benign conditions, I hope we see some cold zonality at least as we head further into January!!

may ruffle mine, as I hate that setup, much prefer this, but living where you do, then different matter, don't blame you, N areas favoured for snow

[Methuselah]

I can only think of one person who might like the look of the Para @T+384!

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Looks like your wish will probably come true. Exeter certainly gunning for zonal after next week, very much in line with the gfs. 

Fingers crossed, this turgid mild benign pattern is a winter killer, looking forward to some potential wintry cold zonal action!

[blizzard81]

If there is any chance at all of more amplification up towards Northern Scandi at that crucial 120/144 hour mark, it has to happen on today's 12z runs. I think it is now a long shot but I haven't given up all hope just yet. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I can only think of one person who might like the look of the Para @T+384!

who me? looks dry so Aye, I'll take it

[blizzard81]

Just think back to last weekend and I have just plucked a chart out at random depicting what the models were showing at the 10 day timeframe. This is now the 5 day timeframe. Both charts are for weds morning 2nd Jan. The first from last Sunday and the second from this morning's run. A massive improvement. 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

There is no denying that this December has been horrid and it is running 2.2c above the seasonal average!

Out of interest, how often have we had a cold winter month after a December with such a strong warm anomaly?

Yes its been a month devoid of much to talk about other than the freezing rain event. Many places haven't seen a flake of snow, even in mild zonal months the fells will have had a coating at some point - alas they have remained snow free this December.

Reading posts at the moment - I sense much frustration in this thread, largely I feel a symptom of current synoptics being so devoid of anything wintry or indeed anything to talk about. A shake up is needed, the stalled pattern is very frustrating as we could have had a decent cold frosty week, alas we are enduring mild gunk and cloud - very uninspiring.

Back to the models - a change is being shown as we enter new year, the atlantic looks like it might reawaken from its christmas slumber, with some polar air looks like being injected into it, which should enhance the chance of wintry precipitation in the north at least - good news for scottish ski resorts who I suspect are having a very poor start to the season.

2018 is ending on a very quiet benign note, indeed the year as a whole has been exceptionally benign and kind, with the exception of events at the end of Feb and mid March. Since April, the atlantic has been in hibernation.

'Wake me up when December ends'..