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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The GFS op from D7-D10 moves into one of my worse case scenarios. Residue upper and surface heights slow the Atlantic down and the Atlantic flow is forced through the gap! Slow moving zonal not in my Top 5 Winter wish list.

The problem with the GFS at the moment, it has shown various scenarios and all so far have led to horrible winter output. The overwriting driver is seemingly intent on HP>Zonal with a variation on route and timing. Not even an inkling of the ECM idea run after run! 

Thankfully we are getting towards mid-Jan now in FI so we should be able to see a reboot to colder options incoming...

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I should add that the GEFS (P) also agrees with its older model. The tropospheric vortex splits at ~300 hours and by the end we see a -AO developing. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS at T+384 suggests that changes are at last afoot; and, at just about the time-frame one would expect from what the Met Office monthlies keep suggesting. Good times ahead, methinks!:cold:

image.thumb.png.629e787d6dd58a0018719f813a20b91a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

There is no denying that this December has been horrid and it is running 2.2c above the seasonal average!

Out of interest, how often have we had a cold winter month after a December with such a strong warm anomaly?

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
2 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

For anyone watching these models thinking nothing is going to happen and no sign of cold etc think again! Models will NOT pick up on any propagation until the bitterly cold air from the actual polar Vortex filters down from the stratosphere to our atmosphere! This is forecast to happen around the 7th Jan. And for anyone thinking the SSW isn't happening, It's already happening Jet stream has already reversed in some places: Bering Sea shows easterly zonal wind at 10 hPa. The models WILL change in a few days time. It's all still to early to be seen! Some on here seem to be writing things off before it's even begun.

Another sensible, Logical, well thought out post. All the signs are still there. It's cause and effect at its basic level

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Some Meto extended forecast musings have gone, Please use the correct thread for discussing them.

Thanks.

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3 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

For anyone watching these models thinking nothing is going to happen and no sign of cold etc think again! Models will NOT pick up on any propagation until the bitterly cold air from the actual polar Vortex filters down from the stratosphere to our atmosphere! This is forecast to happen around the 7th Jan. And for anyone thinking the SSW isn't happening, It's already happening Jet stream has already reversed in some places: Bering Sea shows easterly zonal wind at 10 hPa. The models WILL change in a few days time. It's all still to early to be seen! Some on here seem to be writing things off before it's even begun.

You know even if some people were to have 18 inches of snow, they'd still moan and groan it wasn't 2 feet!

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Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
8 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

For anyone watching these models thinking nothing is going to happen and no sign of cold etc think again! Models will NOT pick up on any propagation until the bitterly cold air from the actual polar Vortex filters down from the stratosphere to our atmosphere! This is forecast to happen around the 7th Jan. And for anyone thinking the SSW isn't happening, It's already happening Jet stream has already reversed in some places: Bering Sea shows easterly zonal wind at 10 hPa. The models WILL change in a few days time. It's all still to early to be seen! Some on here seem to be writing things off before it's even begun.

And really that sums it all up. Give it a week or so....

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
1 hour ago, Rapodo said:

For anyone watching these models thinking nothing is going to happen and no sign of cold etc think again! Models will NOT pick up on any propagation until the bitterly cold air from the actual polar Vortex filters down from the stratosphere to our atmosphere! This is forecast to happen around the 7th Jan. And for anyone thinking the SSW isn't happening, It's already happening Jet stream has already reversed in some places: Bering Sea shows easterly zonal wind at 10 hPa. The models WILL change in a few days time. It's all still to early to be seen! Some on here seem to be writing things off before it's even begun.

To be fair, the 'models will change' has been branded about for some considerable days with little sign of it happening. There is also considerable uncertainty from both GFS and ECM as to whether the stratosphere warming will even propagate down to troposphere levels. Even with my limited knowledge of the Stratosphere I posted a few days ago that things didn't seem to be going to plan only to be accused of being a wind up merchant. 

 

So long as the Met keep interested there is hope, but every update is filling me with dread now..

33873701-7C05-47EB-8F90-00257480C2FE.thumb.png.f9be988f5aea6a22336eb9b0169d7904.png

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Fair to say the operational is well supported mean at 168 looks a lot like the the op, rather flat ensemble suite, another GFS vs ECM egg on face situation, both have been consistent... one must be wrong.

33873701-7C05-47EB-8F90-00257480C2FE.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey

having just read the start thread still some doubt as to how the SSW will be felt at trop level seems the reversal not going to plan - maybe the models are showing no cold because that is what we are getting no cold !

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
38 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

For anyone watching these models thinking nothing is going to happen and no sign of cold etc think again! Models will NOT pick up on any propagation until the bitterly cold air from the actual polar Vortex filters down from the stratosphere to our atmosphere! This is forecast to happen around the 7th Jan. And for anyone thinking the SSW isn't happening, It's already happening Jet stream has already reversed in some places: Bering Sea shows easterly zonal wind at 10 hPa. The models WILL change in a few days time. It's all still to early to be seen! Some on here seem to be writing things off before it's even begun.

Not really sure what you mean by that as most of the major models are technically advanced enough to take into account SSW situations and do process strat conditions when producing any output. For you to say the models categorically WILL change is false, some warmings can take 3 weeks to take effect.

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

Chris Fawkes is not convinced the warming is going to affect the troposphere and there will be no reversal of zonal winds.

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

ECM is fine again, no deep lows in the Iceland area. We really are in the same place we were in the days before the 2013 SSW. I think the fact this SSW was forecast so long ago, end of November if I remember correctly, some fatigue has set in. The SSW has not happened yet. If this SSW follows the 2013 path, then first week of Jan we will see lows weakening in our area/ Iceland then middle of Jan we will see northern blocking.

Also some baseless forecasts of cold in the middle of December and then the end of December by a few won't have helped the whole fatigue issue.

Edited by Snowy L
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
2 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Chris Fawkes is not convinced the warming is going to affect the troposphere and there will be no reversal of zonal winds.

This is because it’s never guaranteed and it’s still a little early to tell - I don’t think it’s because of certain models not showing it. Just a waiting game. The SSW and reversal of winds is pretty nailed on. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The latest departure from the Euros by the GFS is now to run some weak shortwave energy se through the high .

However the GFS 06 hrs run is a slight improvement upstream around day 5 , more energy is heading se .

Compare the 06 hrs with the 00 hrs and you’ll see this change .

There’s also less energy spilling east , the area to look at is near the Azores and north of there , note more dig se and then a weakening of that shortwave .

Lets hope this is resolved tonight !

PS NCEP prefer slower upstream solutions .

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
17 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Fair to say the operational is well supported mean at 168 looks a lot like the the op, rather flat ensemble suite, another GFS vs ECM egg on face situation, both have been consistent... one must be wrong.

33873701-7C05-47EB-8F90-00257480C2FE.png

Am telling you now gfs will be correct cos its just our luck!!i bet even if the mean showed a solid freeze up and the ecm showed mild we would end up mild!!again its just our horrrible luck and ive seen it far too many times over the years!!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Please no more about Chris Fawkes...we know his thoughts about this winter (he might be right) but he's certainly tweeting every image he can which backs up his thoughts and showing lack of propagation of the down welling...we seem to be hearing more from him than any other Meteorologist or Strat person currently and I don't believe he's one 'hunting' for cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would suggests he looks at the back end of the ensemble suites closely from right now through the next week or so's worth of runs.

In fairness, several times this winter already we’ve had the far reaches of FI showing eye candy, I remember around mid December or so we were all salivating about charts at the start of January end of December, and the METO were on board and it’s all been pushed back and filtered down so to speak.

The frustration from some on here is understandable, it’s difficult to be patient when the chase seems to have no end at times I think we’ve all seen winters like this were it keeps getting later and then suddenly it’s march. (Usually when it snows in recent years ironically), it is frustrating but we’ve been in far worse positions 1/3 of the way through winter, there’s plenty of possibilities so got to keep the hopes up as frustrating as it can get!

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
43 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

For anyone watching these models thinking nothing is going to happen and no sign of cold etc think again! Models will NOT pick up on any propagation until the bitterly cold air from the actual polar Vortex filters down from the stratosphere to our atmosphere! This is forecast to happen around the 7th Jan. And for anyone thinking the SSW isn't happening, It's already happening Jet stream has already reversed in some places: Bering Sea shows easterly zonal wind at 10 hPa. The models WILL change in a few days time. It's all still to early to be seen! Some on here seem to be writing things off before it's even begun.

don’t agree - the 500hpa models were showing the affects of the feb warming five days before it occurred. All the atmospheric levels are part of the same model 

20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Are the models not programmed to take stratospheric warming’s and propagation into account? 

Yes they are but that doesn’t mean they are good at the interaction between the upper levels and into the trop 

13 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Not really sure what you mean by that as most of the major models are technically advanced enough to take into account SSW situations and do process strat conditions when producing any output. For you to say the models categorically WILL change is false, some warmings can take 3 weeks to take effect.

Not wrong 

7 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Chris Fawkes is not convinced the warming is going to affect the troposphere and there will be no reversal of zonal winds.

Reversal winds in the trop - yes,  but not in the strat where they have already reversed high up 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

In fairness, several times this winter already we’ve had the far reaches of FI showing eye candy, I remember around mid December or so we were all salivating about charts at the start of January end of December, and the METO were on board and it’s all been pushed back and filtered down so to speak.

The frustration from some on here is understandable, it’s difficult to be patient when the chase seems to have no end at times I think we’ve all seen winters like this were it keeps getting later and then suddenly it’s march. (Usually when it snows in recent years ironically)

TBH anything early Jan was either going to be reliant on an INITIAL split SSW and prompt downwelling or a trop led pattern, at no point was this ever an odds on shot.

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