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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Ecm is miles different from gfs how can you say its moved towards gfs IDO? Are you still on the Xmas cherry and gfs could be miles wrong anyway. 

What's the  obsession with gfs anyway, its been useless 

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Posted
  • Location: Bromborough WIRRAL
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold, hot sunny summer's and autumn storms
  • Location: Bromborough WIRRAL
8 hours ago, More Snow said:

This week kind of reminds me of 2012/13 didnt we have an early SSW late December early January that winter? models spent some time all over the place gfs ukmo and ecm, then ukmo looked good the ecm followed the gfs stumbled about with it head up its ass then the ecm had a wobble the gfs came on board then ukmo wobbled while the ecm came back on board then gfs dropped off again and some folk on here were pulling their hair out then we had the ian brown wtf moment and bingo models finally picked up on things and we all know what happened next in Jan Feb and March. could it be a case that the models struggle with early SSW events more than later ones?

I cant remember late dec 2012, bad fatigue (just given birth to twins . What i do remember is nov 2012 being bitterly cold (with a little snow?, day time temps were pitty low -0 as the twins had to go back into hospital because it was just so cold

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Ecm is miles different from gfs how can you say its moved towards gfs IDO? Are you still on the Xmas cherry and gfs could be miles wrong anyway. 

What's the  obsession with gfs anyway, its been useless 

As with all data, the more the better and as long as you can interpret that and leverage any bias you can get a better overview. Ignoring GFS just because it performs worse than ECM, knowing that ECM is far from perfect, will limit your views. I get ECM blows up highs so we get more wintry runs and GFS pushes the Atlantic with a bit too much zest, so we get the opposite, but just ignoring GFS because of that and calling it "useless" is a bit much!

Yes, I am still on the "Xmas Sherry", thanks!

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Slowly catching the monkey,EPS are encouraging

download (2).png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
13 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Slowly catching the monkey,EPS are encouraging

download (2).png

And i will bet my bottom dollar GEFS is far less promising  re enforcing the argument EC has not moved to gfs

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

And i will bet my bottom dollar GEFS is far less promising  re enforcing the argument EC has not moved to gfs

 

yet again my phone is playing up.what is the chart showing NW ? tia

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 hour ago, That ECM said:

Wow we have had some near misses so far.  Let’s hope our patience is rewarded mid month and we get a bit more luck. Still time for this output to change but I fear it will be another near miss this time. We continue to “hunt” because it’s what we do

7C9AE83C-9AC1-4723-A245-3F0FF41D103A.png

Aye certainly is! Although so far this winter it’s been a bit like trying to hook a Barracuda in the English Channel  

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, swfc said:

yet again my phone is playing up.what is the chart showing NW ? tia

Nick F has posted the 10 dayers..

Im at work so limited time to post..

Im sure others will tho..:)

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
9 hours ago, Nick F said:

I don’t think the models will start to have a grasp of the effects of the SSWE lower down until after day 1 of the event, then we can perhaps fathom whether it’ll be a QTR or up to a two week wait if the trop responds. 

Does anyone know when day 1 of the event is?

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

the ecm 46 maps look astonishing,huge high over greenland ,easterlies too ,are they  worthy taking any notice off at that time frame we are talking 4 -6 weeks in the future ,or to the shredder.

Tyey been pretty useless in previous winters i recall.

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS has gone backwards this morning and is flatter than last nights runs .

The ECM and UKMO are still okay early on , but it wouldn’t take much to miss the cold air completely .

The problem is the high never gets sufficiently north and then doesn’t topple favourably.

Looking at the ECM De Bilt ensembles there are some colder solutions on offer but we do seem to be going the wrong way again at the start of the day and need some changes ASAP !

Given the timeframes a good place to start would be the GFS 06 run!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS has gone backwards this morning and is flatter than last nights runs .

The ECM and UKMO are still okay early on , but it wouldn’t take much to miss the cold air completely .

The problem is the high never gets sufficiently north and then doesn’t topple favourably.

Looking at the ECM De Bilt ensembles there are some colder solutions on offer but we do seem to be going the wrong way again at the start of the day and need some changes ASAP !

Given the timeframes a good place to start would be the GFS 06 run!

Yup got a feeling this high will not play ball and probably stick around a little longer than shown. It's like a darn limpet.

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Yup got a feeling this high will not play ball and probably stick around a little longer than shown. It's like a darn limpet.

It's a WAITING high ,perhaps we can name it a Brexit high .we need this high to make a quick exit .Think we need a meeting of Cobra , keep the posts coming great forum ,cheers .

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The ECM op is still going colder than the mean during the back end of next week - the mean remains in line with last nights 12z peaking at a low of around -2

london_ecmsd850.thumb.png.63815773119f82c78dcfd0512e66801e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

I am not so sure the High will hang on like a limpet.

The ensembles are telling a very different story. Trend is the friend. High pressure eroded away allowing the cold in.  The 850s suggest a gradual decrease in temps as the process continues. 

prmslWestern~Isles.png

 

t850Aberdeenshire.png

It is a waiting game. A significant SSW has taken place, zonal winds expect to reverse. I would imagine it will be a Nly first then Easterly or NE

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The differences here are somewhat tropically led in terms of how they handle the MJO.

Euro... Still largely kills the MJO 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

GFS still forecasts a high amplitude phase 5-6-7..

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

JanENMJOphase5gt1500mb.gif

JanENMJOphase6gt1500mb.gif

JanENMJOphase7gt1500mb.gif

Allowing for a bit of lag it's not hard to see here why the GFS would be clinging on to a somewhat zonal pattern through phases 5 and 6 and being in phase 5 now means that even allowing for a 10 day lag, phase 7 (the promised land) is still a good 10-15 days away. 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Haven’t seen the extended eps .(apart from the chart jukes posted) ........but the gems and gefs are similar. I was less taken by the updated 46 than recently which seemed a slow burner sinking jet to a good place late jan (which doesn’t fit the metoffice forecast which included the words frost and fog for mid jan onwards - if glosea begins to look like the ec46 then expect more caveats on that wording) 

This mornings runs are a bit meh ......... if the slowing/reversing strat is to have an effect then the amplification should be increasing rather than swinging back and forth ........probably best to give ecm op another shot at keeping that upper ridge with enough latitude. 

Finally, just a note on Steve’s posts yesterday evening where he references the building Atlantic ridge as being a QTR ...... this isn’t the same type of QTR that I have been speaking of. mine (and i believe the generally accepted use)  is where the reversal wave downwells quickly through the layers and leads to a notable split trop vortex (and likely neg AO) within a few days of the reversal at 10hpa. The standard downwelling will then still follow at 10/14 days and beyond. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia (Maribor)
  • Location: Slovenia (Maribor)

Amazing morning ECMWF 00z run for parts of central,SE,and also NW Europe. The ensembles are pretty solid as well. But we need to push that ridge more towards Greenland, this is the most important thing.

ECMOPEU00_168_2.thumb.png.d8076587242b5c632cc71b259461905e.pngECMOPEU00_168_34.thumb.png.775f14ddfab3d16ae963f31917621dc1.png

Edited by Redbull165
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Not the awe inspiring set of 00Zs we were hoping for (but not really expecting) this morning. The GFS still playing Scrooge whilst the EC continues to hold some hope for a Jan week2 cold spell. 

There does now seem to be consensus on the SSW timing though, Jan 1st, give or take a day. Both going for a good few day reversal event as well

50F63FFD-E07B-4E69-A3A5-B14DDC10FB47.thumb.png.7ae1c17bcc6380d5a5263fdd82b6fcdb.pngEF0EEC2D-688E-4FFC-98FB-B4E75C38FF2F.thumb.gif.8359a1cbca98b9d62beec7e1939468fb.gif

It is worth bearing this in mind...

When we have a non standard event such as an SSW. There is a whole world of difference between the models forecasting the event and then what happens next to... the event actually happening and them being able to use the data as start data to determine what happens next.  That is exactly the point at which sudden model flips (for better or worse) can occur. 

Not withstanding of course that they have correctly forecasted an SSW in the first place (I’d be surprised though if that was a fail now) 

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

This must be the coldest I've seen the NH modelled. 

image.thumb.png.c21072bc4a4e420ca6e6bb7cd476e8bb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

I just wonder if this is the first signs of the QTR reversal around the 4th Jan a few GEFS feeling for something.1,2,7,12,15,19 etc

Coupled with the ECM allowing Bitter cold to infuse through Eastern Europe

Screenshot_20181228-100028_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181228-100312_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181228-100621_Chrome.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, Jemma Croton said:

Guys I’ve been away over Christmas and cannot catch up properly. Can I get a status on the SSW. Displacement or split anticipated?

Yes!

Spv already displaced and will be split at 10 hpa by jan 4th ....SSW due 31st/1st  .....the question is how long will downwelling take and whether it will affect the trop 

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