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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted

Just put a post in the Winter Banter/Moans thread on the latest from weather Online.

C.S

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Pretty poor runs so far from overnight, nothing aligning to the cold mid month change just yet. Exeter’s update is slightly better long range which is great,  so I’m still hoping to see a flip any time soon should their forecast be on the right lines. ECM to come but that doesn’t go out far enough to show any possible switch I doubt. 

The chase goes on!!! 

EC's strat forecast looks better, the split that kept being postponed now has moved forward to new year's day and there is more downwelling (but still not enough) 

 

ecmwf10f120.gif

Edited by ArHu3
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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Rambo said:

Constantly being pushed back? Since when lol?? 

Well according to many in here we were supposed to be enjoying a Narnia Christmas, then it was just after Christmas and in time for a white new year. Oh, hold on, it's now the first week of January. Sorry scratch that, it was always going to be mid-month instead. At this rate, it will be April and everyone will be saying that they are waiting for the effects of the SSW still because of the lag lol. There is a chance the SSW will do zilch to help change our weather patterns.

Edited by lassie23
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JeffC Accomplished

JeffC

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Getting toasty up top! 

EB7A936E-76CB-4681-A3F5-298414E27402.thumb.png.8d32dd2b0db06d6a2768bfa404cb4fbe.png

 https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-11.11,93.27,560/loc=-169.961,89.947

Indeed, touch warmer still as of this morning. But it has been as high as +3deg C earlier in the week.

Edited by JeffC
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

So has snowmageddon hit the UK yet? But seriously the UKMO 144h imports some lovely cold air into a wide swathe of Europe. That cold pool extends from the east of England to siberia.

UE144-21 (9).gif

UE144-7 (2).gif

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GeordieX9v Aficionado

GeordieX9v

Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside
Posted
3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

So has snowmageddon hit the UK yet? But seriously the UKMO 144h imports some lovely cold air into a wide swathe of Europe. That cold pool extends from the east of England to siberia.

UE144-21 (9).gif

UE144-7 (2).gif

144 on the ECM. Getting pretty cold in the East.

144.gif

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

168 and not far off some real cold.

EE00E6DD-1506-4332-9D81-A17AD1C9CA00.png

192 even closer but doesn’t quite hold.

2D87D442-6AC3-410F-A2F6-5885C3FD5999.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Other than strat shenanigans GFS seems to have spilled any coffee the 18z smelled all over its lap - hope it hurt! 

The ensembles are probably worse, this chart pretty much sums up GFS this morning.

gensnh-18-1-264.png

We had better hope this SSW works its magic ??

Or ECM and UKMO can find some more amplification and undercut out of the midterm pattern

 

 

Edited by Mucka
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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Looking at the spread of the GEFS it is clear there is a timing issue as to when the zonal flush occurs. All members have this as incoming just timing and variance on the theme. Looking at the spread we can see:

D10: gens-22-1-240.thumb.png.74db8ad4457bc408f04c79c707d011d8.png  D16 gens-22-1-384.thumb.png.07adadcaca9f599793ab4475183674ed.png

The UK at D10 high spread as to when the HP sinks. GEM keeps UK HP even at D10 and the slow sinking on the ECM is the middle ground. From then the GEFS are in accord with the Atlantic flush. This usually takes 5-7 days from experience. The D16 spread shows much less spread for the UK as zonal is the driver on the GEFS. 

Of course usual caveats, the bias of the Atlantic strength on the GFS and the strong likelihood that by D16 there will be background signals overriding this modelled upcoming pattern. 

So ECM & GEM giving us around 10 days of settled weather (GFS op 9 days for the SE). Though ignoring the D9 & D10 ECM charts as they look rather complex and messy. Seasonal temps for low lying areas on the GFS, a bit colder on the ECM. Certainly low chances of snow up to D10.

ECM in its early stages moved closer to the GFS losing that wedge of heights in Greenland:ECM1-168.thumb.gif.4e4e196d3562d5c09f805849cbf5c810.gifECM1-144.thumb.gif.4d4bf87b5bc5fd8757155796c86da814.gif

We will see if ECM adjusts further as the D6 plus charts get closer?

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

Wow we have had some near misses so far.  Let’s hope our patience is rewarded mid month and we get a bit more luck. Still time for this output to change but I fear it will be another near miss this time. We continue to “hunt” because it’s what we do

7C9AE83C-9AC1-4723-A245-3F0FF41D103A.png

Edited by That ECM
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
18 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

ECM1-216.gif

Cryptic. What does your pondering emoji mean good sir? 

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The Beast From The East Community Regular

The Beast From The East

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
Posted
58 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Well according to many in here we were supposed to be enjoying a Narnia Christmas, then it was just after Christmas and in time for a white new year. Oh, hold on, it's now the first week of January. Sorry scratch that, it was always going to be mid-month instead. At this rate, it will be April and everyone will be saying that they are waiting for the effects of the SSW still because of the lag lol. There is a chance the SSW will do zilch to help change our weather patterns.

It was always going to be end of January early February

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

It was always going to be end of January early February

What year?

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bazookabob Community Regular

bazookabob

Posted
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Snow, Thunder
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
Posted
1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Well according to many in here we were supposed to be enjoying a Narnia Christmas, then it was just after Christmas and in time for a white new year. Oh, hold on, it's now the first week of January. Sorry scratch that, it was always going to be mid-month instead. At this rate, it will be April and everyone will be saying that they are waiting for the effects of the SSW still because of the lag lol. There is a chance the SSW will do zilch to help change our weather patterns.

Agreed, there's no doubt in my mind that the cold has been pushed back, even the Met Office long ranger a week ago or so was going for around new year (possibly a few days before) for the cold wintry weather to arrive. And how many on here were saying a white Christmas was a great bet back in mid December!? I'm going to Thailand on January 15th so I'd say mid January is a fantastic punt for the snow to arrive here lol!  

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Wow. ECM gets close to a proper easterly  but it doesn't quite make it. Is this going to be the 3rd attempt at an  easterly this season that fails to make It? 

I thought the 3rd attempt if we got one would hit the jackpot, this winter season is slowly becoming frustration, even if the Met are still going for it mid month, So they expect another attempt,at an easterly? because they don't actually mention wind direction, regarding mid month. 

Getting a bit annoyed now. 

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Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted
1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Dreadful GFS Op run. No sign of any change to proper cold yet.

Horrendous 00z GFS in the bin again - can no one post up a chart that we all like?!! :crazy:

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

IDO...

EC has not moved to GFS in any shape or form..

IMHO ..

I was focusing on up to D7 where ECM continues to be struggling in such scenarios. Compare T168 on 12z and 0z today for anomalous upper heights on ECM:

ECM 12z yesterday T168                                  ECM 0z today T168                                GFS 0z today T168

ECM101-144.thumb.gif.6f8c94a1eba080c76f1cb88964158268.gif1322713230_ECM101-168(1).thumb.gif.f92af3b1a5f8bd9f197ad53e469bf00f.gifgfs-12-168.thumb.png.5c296215b2f3506ff9e8843553996e88.png

The last two are from this morning's output, ECM and GFS. Clearly, the ECM had modelled the core anomalous upper heights wrongly yesterday and compared with the current GFS much closer aligned. If there was such a move overnight we have to be wary from D7 of the ECM, ditto GFS as it corrects its Atlantic bias; somewhere in the middle may be the ultimate solution?

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