Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Oh i do hope EC 46 is right here- all the waiting will be worth it!

I’m pretty convinced we will get our reward! It’s been a long slog

[Spah1]

The amount of effort, analysis, reading, wishing, theorising, hoping and evaluating that has gone in to the last 6 weeks to try and get a bit of snow is ridiculous. 

I wish I’d found a career in the Alps. 

[Mike Poole]

Dismembered vortex Japanese style here T268:

Something's afoot, and it isn't sushi... 

[Mucka]

GFS 18z ensembles certainly more amplified so hopefully the 00z will pick up the baton and smell the ECM coffee.

I'm happy to criticise GFS and its failings and hopefully it has been failing very badly (ECM was also terrible, it just smelt the coffee well before GFS assuming we get this amplification and I don't mind saying even I beat both models to it, that's how bad they are! )

Not sure why you are touting the Icon though Mr Murr, it is dreadful and even a broken clock is right twice a day whereas Icon is right once a week at those ranges. It must be the new car smell, it will wear off and you will realise it is two halves of an old banger welded together

Hopefully a change is coming and as such all bets after day 5/6 are off though it should also be noted no cold spell is currently being modelled. It's a start though so see you on the platform for the hype train.

 

Edited December 27, 2018 by Mucka

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Dismembered vortex Japanese style here T268:

Something's afoot, and it isn't sushi... 

And on that note its time for a big jack and coke and then bed so i can be up early to watch the upgrades come thick and fast which is exactly what the snaw will be falling like in a few weeks times.

[Nick F]

4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

The amount of effort, analysis, reading, wishing, theorising, hoping and evaluating that has gone in to the last 6 weeks to try and get a bit of snow is ridiculous. 

I wish I’d found a career in the Alps. 

Got have a at the end of the stick to see us through the tediousness of the current weather, with most of us not seeing a flake since March, that’s why we are all here doing it!

EC weeklies like recent weeklies keen on the Greenland / NAO height rises signal rather than a Scandi height rise signal, but with the all important Euro trough signal, sometimes tapping in from the N or NE maybe a better option initially.

However, we still have the GFS operational conundrum to overcome, it’s been consistent in it’s westerly signal into eternity, but perhaps it’s not recognising or unwilling to have the SSW impact on the trop, rather waiting for the MJO wave through colder phases impact on the trop later on toward mid-Jan?

Lots to speculate for now! 

[Mucka]

[karlos1983]

Getting toasty up top! 

 https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-11.11,93.27,560/loc=-169.961,89.947

[Snowy Hibbo]

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/12/europe-on-long-term-28th-dec.html

 

My thoughts for the European Alps and the UK over January. And it's looking good, depending on the impacts of the SSW. The MJO looks to be pretty amplified, like the GEFS forecast. And the AAM looks pretty positive over the first two weeks of Jan.

[Guest]

This week kind of reminds me of 2012/13 didnt we have an early SSW late December early January that winter? models spent some time all over the place gfs ukmo and ecm, then ukmo looked good the ecm followed the gfs stumbled about with it head up its ass then the ecm had a wobble the gfs came on board then ukmo wobbled while the ecm came back on board then gfs dropped off again and some folk on here were pulling their hair out then we had the ian brown wtf moment and bingo models finally picked up on things and we all know what happened next in Jan Feb and March. could it be a case that the models struggle with early SSW events more than later ones?

[Mike Poole]

In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king, they say, FV3 strat at T234:

We could do with some guidance, the way forward is obscured to us at the moment!

 

[feb1991blizzard]

25 minutes ago, More Snow said:

This week kind of reminds me of 2012/13 didnt we have an early SSW late December early January that winter? models spent some time all over the place gfs ukmo and ecm, then ukmo looked good the ecm followed the gfs stumbled about with it head up its ass then the ecm had a wobble the gfs came on board then ukmo wobbled while the ecm came back on board then gfs dropped off again and some folk on here were pulling their hair out then we had the ian brown wtf moment and bingo models finally picked up on things and we all know what happened next in Jan Feb and March. could it be a case that the models struggle with early SSW events more than later ones?

True about the models in 2013 being all over the place but in my opinion though they aren't now, they are showing zonal turning cold zonal, assuming you use ensemble products for the 16 day range, however, we are not expecting any potent cold before then so this isn;t a mild ramp, im confident the zonality will then become more amplified and utimately meridionality with a Greeny high, not before mid Jan though.

Edited December 28, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

Nice to see but anything beyond week 3 is hit and miss, not worth building hopes on a cold late Jan at this stage. 

For the first half of Jan, ensembles have been fairly consistent for days, and remain so tonight: generally zonal, good chance of trough temporarily pulling east for a time (back edge snow?), very outside chance of Greeny High. 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Nice to see but anything beyond week 3 is hit and miss, not worth building hopes on a cold late Jan at this stage. 

For the first half of Jan, ensembles have been fairly consistent for days, and remain so tonight: generally zonal, good chance of trough temporarily pulling east for a time (back edge snow?), very outside chance of Greeny High. 

I would say strong chance of Greeny high second half of Jan, zero chance of northern blocking in next 10 days.

[tight isobar]

14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Nice to see but anything beyond week 3 is hit and miss, not worth building hopes on a cold late Jan at this stage. 

For the first half of Jan, ensembles have been fairly consistent for days, and remain so tonight: generally zonal, good chance of trough temporarily pulling east for a time (back edge snow?), very outside chance of Greeny High. 

Fair analysis...(given synops)..

Troughing...and rise pumping, and the spillage of arctic mass....

Are 'im sure' being underplayed-miss directed!.

The amping and waving is miss matching imo.

With the russian pen-being miss modeled with asian warm-to cold..cold 2 warm...due 2 ssw!..

The troughing via current data stats.. looks to angle-and drop!..

Some underplaying...and large...overplaying-looks nailed.

Via above prognosis!!

Edit various time snaps..

 

Upper disolve, clearly not factored.

As data pops-and sways with the atmospheric pushes...

Watch for the height holds of the migrating lobes(polar vortex)..

Through deciphering outs.

As both troughing...and height alingn...become alingned.

And the north-west euro quad..become the option!!

 

Edited December 28, 2018 by tight isobar

[Snowy L]

Also worth remembering we are still not at reversal, that is expected to happen on New Years Day. This is just 5 days earlier than the 2013 SSW. We had to wait 10 days for Northern Blocking in 2013. I don't think it's too unrealistic to expect the same this time too, which would put us at the 11th of January to see some kind of northern blocking. In the meantime as I mentioned before I think the ECM has the right idea for the first week of January, which is for Atlantic depressions to start rapidly losing strength as they approach the UK/Iceland area.

[A Frayed Knot]

So where do we sit to then 'Winter terms ? Is everything looking up or down for the future 

As some are saying good and the majority in here are saying dire straits , is the SSW going to happen or we looking at a very mild winter ahead with dross and the odd cold days and nights . 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

So where do we sit to then 'Winter terms ? Is everything looking up or down for the future 

As some are saying good and the majority in here are saying dire straits , is the SSW going to happen or we looking at a very mild winter ahead with dross and the odd cold days and nights . 

A winter of 2 halves in my opinion.

[lassie23]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A winter of 2 halves in my opinion.

Second half as rubbish as the first half maybe lol

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, lassie23 said:

Second half as rubbish as the first half maybe lol

Certainly looks a change afoot to me for the 2nd half of jan at some stage, its a bit of a leap of faith to suggest a 1947 is on the cards or the cold will then last, but i certainly expect a significantly colder second half of winter than first.

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Certainly looks a change afoot to me for the 2nd half of jan at some stage, its a bit of a leap of faith to suggest a 1947 is on the cards or the cold will then last, but i certainly expect a significantly colder second half of winter than first.

Just worrying how it is constantly being pushed back and how any decent model runs quickly vanish to be replaced by mild boredom

[Rambo]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Just worrying how it is constantly being pushed back and how any decent model runs quickly vanish to be replaced by mild boredom

Constantly being pushed back? Since when lol?? 

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Just worrying how it is constantly being pushed back and how any decent model runs quickly vanish to be replaced by mild boredom

Cold hasn't been pushed back its always been around mid month, going by the met office and the models they use, and ec 46 been showing similar as well. Keep the faith a little while longer

[Ali1977]

Pretty poor runs so far from overnight, nothing aligning to the cold mid month change just yet. Exeter’s update is slightly better long range which is great,  so I’m still hoping to see a flip any time soon should their forecast be on the right lines. ECM to come but that doesn’t go out far enough to show any possible switch I doubt. 

The chase goes on!!! 

Edited December 28, 2018 by Ali1977

[mountain shadow]

Dreadful GFS Op run. No sign of any change to proper cold yet.