Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Actually this is a decent run from ICON. T120 Z500 and jet stream 

image.thumb.jpg.4148edc5e920e65ccea1327567feddd3.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.588b2526abbfb48d3ec72e6cbed12e19.jpg

Does anyone else see the polar bear in the second one??

hes even roaring

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Actually this is a decent run from ICON. T120 Z500 and jet stream 

image.thumb.jpg.4148edc5e920e65ccea1327567feddd3.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.588b2526abbfb48d3ec72e6cbed12e19.jpg

Does anyone else see the polar bear in the second one??

nope.

index.thumb.jpg.0433f5a113150d7e26ec1284cd9f3564.jpg

will gfs18z side with the ICON in a bit....?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Actually this is a decent run from ICON. T120 Z500 and jet stream 

image.thumb.jpg.4148edc5e920e65ccea1327567feddd3.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.588b2526abbfb48d3ec72e6cbed12e19.jpg

Does anyone else see the polar bear in the second one??

From a parrot to a polar bear, the cold is on it's way mate

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Actually this is a decent run from ICON. T120 Z500 and jet stream 

 

 

Does anyone else see the polar bear in the second one??

Don't know about a polar bear, it might be bigfoot.

Apologies for drifting off topic.

Regarding the models, is this the longest entropy period we've ever had waiting for a clear outcome?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

There’s a subtle difference here at the end of the Icon 18z.

EDD40519-98B6-4744-B8DC-B5B285A81B2A.thumb.png.4a08386ecfe03e6bbd6af3dbe775d754.png

The ridging is clearly better but the high itself retrogresses everso slightly north. Up to now, it has slowly sunk back by this stage. May be nothing, watch this space though, this would be exactly the improvement we could be looking for if we want this to turn into something of note.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

From a parrot to a polar bear, the cold is on it's way mate

If it develops into a picture of my chest freezer i'll be in on the cold hunt

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Thankfully the ECM said no to the GFS.

If we could just squeeze a bit more amplification upstream that makes a big difference downstream to bringing that cold further west .

It’s tantalizingly sitting there , goading us!

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I think most people would disagree especially after it did so fantastically well with the beast this year..

So the GFS is up & running, westward corrections expected...

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. It’s the same old story on here, people want it to be true so it gets coverage, when in all likelihood the GFS is far more likely to be correct than the ICON.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
22 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The icon is a chocolate teapot!! To be fair to them they hit the jackpot releasing their runs before everyone else’s, gets them a lot of hits!!

Yeah it’s useless. Don’t know why people bother looking at it. There’s a reason the pros never use it.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. It’s the same old story on here, people want it to be true so it gets coverage, when in all likelihood the GFS is far more likely to be correct than the ICON.

Indeed...The ICON hardly ever gets a mention, so long as the GFS and ECM remain broadly 'on board'. A couple of days' unfavourable 'model bias' and it's the best thing since sliced bread...?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I see Icongate has struck !

In the current set up its more likely to be correct upto day 6 than the GFS. Doesn’t mean it’s a great model but the GFS has been trashed for days by NCEP .

This mornings NCEP discussion suggested the GEFS mean was more progressive than the others by around 10% longitude with the pattern in the later stages , that’s around 700 miles !

Apparently it’s shown a bit more amplitude and slowed upstream since then so let’s hope that continues .

Edited by nick sussex
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

The UKMO, ECM and GFS have all been very poor so far this year. So lets stop reviewing the models and slate them all instead.

ICON much better run, Do I Think its plausible? Yes.

Will I get worked up if its wrong and GFS out does it? No.

Will I continue to use it? Dam right I will.

Be this the hunt for cold thread and what not.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed...The ICON hardly ever gets a mention, so long as the GFS and ECM remain broadly 'on board'. A couple of days' unfavourable 'model bias' and it's the best thing since sliced bread...?

Just wait when ICON turns on us too and then we will all be hailing the BOM.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
3 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Just wait when ICON turns on us too and then we will all be hailing the BOM.

Isn't the aussies BOM discontinued now funny you mention it. I remember when I lived in Melbourne the weather forecasts were absolutely dier 40c predicted turned out cloudy and 22c. We'd never have such extreme differences here 

Edited by Kentspur
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

Certainly an expected westwards correction being shown in the pub run, not quite sure it will be enough to lighten the mood just yet. Time enough, however, before the SSW delivers a noticeable response, quick or not. Still think we are at least 48 hours and more likely 72 hours away from seeing charts with a cheerier outlook for us coldies. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Spot the difference, but of course all the GFS lovers will say nothings changing-

A major step to the Icon.

81AD67D8-EA0C-4E7C-9E59-C20CAD014FF5.thumb.png.ce4f8e73ce48fc2fbecf7e612a518657.png24E5CC04-94A3-4CB0-8F0F-118BB73CF024.thumb.png.e1004fe1a6e877aec46feac5dbbad943.png

Quick charge your phone...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...