Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Penicuikblizzard]

22 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

Any reason why you think that?

The cold keeps getting put back and it’s been so close yet so far for the whole of December so far.

remember me and quote me wrong if the cold arrives but I have a feeling it won’t. 

[bluearmy]

39 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM extended ensembles this morning have lost even the faintest cold signal. By 11th January, the Icelandic low is dominant, and the UK is generally in a long draw SWly. 

 

34 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That is a shame and doesn't bode well for the ec46 later tonight. 

 

31 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

But even the ecm ext ens trend milder towards the end by the sounds of things. I get the feeling that anything meaningfully cold is just going to be kept putting back. The only thing good about that is that we still have decent time on our side. 

 

22 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

this is just #@#&*n tedious now

Glad half empty syndrome MWB...... the clusters reveal what I thought they might. No need to be downbeat - the gfs type cluster in the ext now below 50% and the other two split between an increasingly wintry looking developing mid Atlantic/ n Atlantic ridging scenario and the balance of the mobile cluster sheared away to a sliding type scenario against a scandi blocking signal. 

The trend is good imo ......

Edited December 27, 2018 by bluearmy

[gottolovethisweather]

45 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Certainly going to be very cold in mainland Europe,,but I think it’s going to be one of those winter seasons where the UK is in the middle, no mans land which will result in mild dry weather as we are experiencing just now.

So winds will be stuck coming at us in a sw'rly or westerly flow from now til April? The switch around in our fortunes will arrive during the first week of January. Patience, Grasshopper!

 

Yes, this period of nothingness is quite good for people travelling out and about in fairness, drone attacks aside. It may feel like we're maybe eating up time but the drier it gets underfoot (sun's out here) the chillier the ground, the harsher the frosts eventually become and that's way better for snow events down the road than sodden flooded landscapes.

Edited December 27, 2018 by gottolovethisweather

[Stonethecrows]

2 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

The cold keeps getting put back and it’s been so close yet so far for the whole of December so far.

remember me and quote me wrong if the cold arrives but I have a feeling it won’t. 

I don't think many were all that surprised when December didn't do anything but are you actually going on record to write the whole of the next 10 - 12 weeks off for any serious cold or did you just mean the next couple of weeks? 

[Northern Sky]

2 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

The cold keeps getting put back and it’s been so close yet so far for the whole of December so far.

remember me and quote me wrong if the cold arrives but I have a feeling it won’t. 

Does it? The possible change to cold has been marked to start around the 10th  - 15th of Jan for weeks now. That's still over two weeks away! People have been talking about the SSW happening and that is happening right now just about as forecast. The uncertainty is when/if the warming will impact on our weather.

If the change to colder weather is to take place around the forecast time of mid month then we should start to see building blocks to cold appear over the next week or so. If nothing appears by this time next week then fair enough start to worry. 

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

The cold keeps getting put back and it’s been so close yet so far for the whole of December so far.

remember me and quote me wrong if the cold arrives but I have a feeling it won’t. 

TBF PB, I think that's largely down to one of our members repeatedly making forecasts for severe winter weather, ever since November...? I don't think any of the experts have ever predicted it though? Though the wait is getting ever more tedious!

Edited December 27, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Banbury]

25 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

Which makes you wonder why all the doom and gloom. I haven't been privy to this thread over the years like many on here have but with the background signals being much better this winter, god knows what states people have been in other years.

But as i debated yesterday , signals mean absolutely nothing. SSW means nothing, surrounded by water with a big pond to the West doesn't help those wanting a ferocious Winter . The much forecast and relied on SSW can push things in our favour but the positioning of any block is down to luck...……….fingers crossed  

Edited December 27, 2018 by Banbury

[Stonethecrows]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

But as i debated yesterday , signals mean absolutely nothing. SSW means nothing, surrounded by water with a big pond to the West doesn't help those wanting a ferocious Winter .

Fair enough mate but it's not Prozac time yet is it? lol

[Northern Sky]

3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

But as i debated yesterday , signals mean absolutely nothing. SSW means nothing, surrounded by water with a big pond to the West doesn't help those wanting a ferocious Winter .

Quite clearly the empirical evidence of recent years completely contradicts that statement.

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, Stonethecrows said:

Fair enough mate but it's not Prozac time yet is it? lol

Oh god no , look at March this year .

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, Northern Sky said:

Quite clearly the empirical evidence of recent years completely contradicts that statement.

So SSW gives the UK cold and Snow ………...have you facts and figures to back that up

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

So SSW gives the UK cold and Snow ………...have you facts and figures to back that up

No. You said that an SSW means nothing which is completely and utterly untrue. 

[DanDorsetUK]

Everone just wait till Monday night. Give it till then at least before the doom posts. Looking out the window now on the south coasts feels like the calm before the storm everything so still and with touch of cold in the air. Game still very much on yet. 

[Nick L]

Posts about the Met Office outlook in the relevant thread please folks, guidelines state this clearly at the top.

[Banbury]

7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

No. You said that an SSW means nothing which is completely and utterly untrue. 

Fair point

It means nothing in terms of guaranteeing Snow and Ice for the UK 

 

[Northern Sky]

Just now, Banbury said:

So SSW gives the UK cold and Snow ………...have you facts and figures to back that up

I think the mistake is to assume that a SSW means guaranteed cold for the UK. That's absolutely not the case because it depends on a number of factors. However what is pretty clear from the evidence is that a SSW can and often does have a major impact on Tropospheric weather patterns and that in recent years these have at times had a significant effect on our weather, with the last one being Feb/March's "Beast from the East".

There are plenty of other examples over recent years too.

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

I think the mistake is to assume that a SSW means guaranteed cold for the UK. That's absolutely not the case because it depends on a number of factors. However what is pretty clear from the evidence is that a SSW can and often does have a major impact on Tropospheric weather patterns and that in recent years these have at times had a significant effect on our weather, with the last one being Feb/March's "Beast from the East".

There are plenty of other examples over recent years too.

All fair comments NS but we always need so many pieces of the jigsaw to come together

I guess that's why everyone likes to talk about the UK weather 

[blizzard81]

32 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

 

 

Glad half empty syndrome MWB...... the clusters reveal what I thought they might. No need to be downbeat - the gfs type cluster in the ext now below 50% and the other two split between an increasingly wintry looking developing mid Atlantic/ n Atlantic ridging scenario and the balance of the mobile cluster sheared away to a sliding type scenario against a scandi blocking signal. 

The trend is good imo ......

Looks like Exeter are going with the gfs solution on it's latest update - cool zonality into second week of Jan. 

[Weathizard]

41 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

The calm before the snow storm fear not! Everything is resetting to default for a nice starting position. Everyone stay calm and watch it unfold before your very eyes in next week. 

You do realise this same thing has been said so many times during winters on this forum, a reset to zonal default is not a good thing, i’d far prefer to have the meandering UK high as a starting point myself! I’m not saying the zonal train is about to hit but based on winters gone, I don’t think a ‘factory reset’ scenario is a good thing.

[Methuselah]

Anywho, here's the Para at T+384, which seems to tie-in quite well with the Met's latest musings...?

Edited December 27, 2018 by Ed Stone

[swfc]

Sounds like things may take slightly longer to show here head  ie a change via the ssw and strat according to a few comments on the strat thread just now!!Gfs pretty awful tbh in the here and now as to say.Plodding on comes to mind but hey ho

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Looks like Exeter are going with the gfs solution on it's latest update - cool zonality into second week of Jan. 

the less settled option has looked the favoured option for a day or two ..... were they waiting for glosea or mogreps to agree ? Wouldnt be the first time mogreps was slow to adjust .....let’s see where the eps clusters go later on .... we are currently looking at nwp reacting to several different ‘drivers’

[DanDorsetUK]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Looks like Exeter are going with the gfs solution on it's latest update - cool zonality into second week of Jan. 

Nothing has really changed just a slight rewording with mid Jan always being the point of interest. The colapse of the high always looked the likely outcome. A sudden response to the ssw looks unlikely this time around we are playing the long game and waiting 14 days to see the effects. I'm not expecting anything to been seen in the models just yet. Patience is the key and everything is as we were.

[Swave Snow]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

Crud wasn't it?

It was good but could have been much better especially im London 

[Ali1977]

Definitely looking like any cold won’t be till mid Jan, but don’t worry the 1947 mega freeze didn’t begin till 21 Jan. Still plenty of time, it’s just strange we’ve not really had anything severe or snowy all winter apart from high ground so we are all feeling a bit bored etc...