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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

UKMO certainly best of the models this morning as the NH profile chart indicates. A build of cold air just to the NE of the British Isles and you would expect the West Russian trough squeezed between the Siberian High and the UK high to start to push SW into Europe. GFS horrid, ECM sort of half way house. More expanded data coming into day , so this evenings runs could be big in your hunt for cold.

 C

UN144-21.gif

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I see nothing  as far forward as the 12/13th of January. I cannot see a frost never mind a cold spell.

Some stormy weather around 6th of January but the cold stays well away.

 

Here in North Yorkshire we have not had a damaging frost yet and Fuchias and geraniums continue to flower. Nearest we got was minus 4 early on Xmas eve but by 2.00 am it was above freezing.

Everything racing ahead and the grass growing again. Soil temps are excp high for late Dec.

Tiger

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
40 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

ECM seems to be a halfway house between a cold camp and the milder GFS. It is by no means wonderful but would only need a slight tweak to get it on track. That Euro high has cold air trapped under its clear core, if it begins to ripple back northwest, watch for gradual transformation to icy conditions as already hinted in southeast England. 

I can say that the Pacific is losing vigour in the past week and is going dormant to some extent, that probably signals a retrograde episode ahead. We basically need all upper level features to buckle and shift back west a few degrees then this nightmare will turn rosy. 

i dont  what  the othrs are seeing all i see up jan 12 rain lots  of it!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

UKMO looks pick of the bunch at 144 to me, you can see the core heights are further north -

image.thumb.png.975d425526e3e44ee95ed756db8c3ce1.png

EC 144

image.thumb.png.084c3a424810101a4ea09e53689e6cc4.png

My comment refers to the heights to our south not the heights to the north..

Less said about GFs the better.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
33 minutes ago, Cas Tiger said:

I see nothing  as far forward as the 12/13th of January. I cannot see a frost never mind a cold spell.

Some stormy weather around 6th of January but the cold stays well away.

 

Here in North Yorkshire we have not had a damaging frost yet and Fuchias and geraniums continue to flower. Nearest we got was minus 4 early on Xmas eve but by 2.00 am it was above freezing.

Everything racing ahead and the grass growing again. Soil temps are excp high for late Dec.

Tiger

Hmmmm, EC is very frosty by the 2nd/3rd onwards..

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png?u

Ec ens look better to me this morning - split developing mid term, just need the milder members to drop off and early Jan suddenly has potential to be very cold across the north sea..

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Talking about toppling the high...

Befire it topples it needs to be in place, then when its in place it wont topple-

This whole evolution is like reverse dominos- one goes up then the other !

Lets just remind ourselves yet again ECM op & around 60% of the EPS follow the ICON today....

Yes, i'm optmistic again this morning after a brief flirt with getting jittery previously- is the SSW beginning to have an effect on the NWP?

A this juncture i would suggest a scandy block is going to be our ticket to winter..

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Talking about toppling the high...

Befire it topples it needs to be in place, then when its in place it wont topple-

This whole evolution is like reverse dominos- one goes up then the other !

Lets just remind ourselves yet again ECM op & around 60% of the EPS follow the ICON today....

Steve how on earth could the icon even be correct with its lower resolution compared to ecm and ukmo gfs?!!you would think the main 3 would have a better handle on this!!the icon has been gunning for this icelandic  ridge for the last 48 hours and has not backed down at all!all am sayin is if it proves correct.......WOW!!!!oh and by the way i hope it is correct cos then i can start posting in here again with a bit more excitement compared to the rubbish boredom we are enduring now weatherwise!!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

It would come as no surprise to me if the ICON does nail it. March 2018 it was fantastic! 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Morning ,seems from the many years of weather watching etc  this quet benign mild weather for most of us will have lasted about two weeks before the Atlantic moves in probably to bring us a notable stormy spell. I don't think there is any point at the moment looking to the north or east ,it's west we have to look too then that presses the reset button and allow the jet stream to move into a favourable position to bring us some proper cold from the east and north. Until then I'm enjoying the quiet calm conditions before the lion roars  in from the west.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
6 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Morning ,seems from the many years of weather watching etc  this quet benign mild weather for most of us will have lasted about two weeks before the Atlantic moves in probably to bring us a notable stormy spell. I don't think there is any point at the moment looking to the north or east ,it's west we have to look too then that presses the reset button and allow the jet stream to move into a favourable position to bring us some proper cold from the east and north. Until then I'm enjoying the quiet calm conditions before the lion roars  in from the west.

Like the avatar AW!! Was that pic taken recently?

Wrt your post, not sure i agree but thats cool, its all about opinions

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Does anyone know if EC 46 updates later?

If it does, that will be interesting!!

Bout 10:02pm I believe

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Icon downgrade already!!at 102 hours lol!!not that i didnt see it coming!!less ridging into greenland!!

 

Actually it recovers at 114 hours sort of!!

Edited by shaky
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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia (Maribor)
  • Location: Slovenia (Maribor)

That morning ECMWF (00Z) made my day. I have to say its quite brutal for parts of eastern, central Europe with below -15 on 850 hPa. I am coming from the parts of central Europe, on the SE side of the Alps. Also the ensembles are good. Now all we need is to push that AC ridge more towards Iceland. The more that high pressure system is pushed towards that part, the more potential there is for extraction of cold Sibirian air. Or so called beast from the east. I know its more difficult for UK in general, but there is high potential in this morning runs. The GFS still doesnt want to see that change.

  • ECMOPEU00_192_1.thumb.png.aaa65061b9e4ae5b3505ed6254690706.pngECMOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.6f6b23ad6a34765f5d0993c051babf1a.pngECMOPEU00_216_2.thumb.png.539f2f362960d61d7439b38c4e004180.pngECMOPEU00_216_34.thumb.png.f7cac577c1dbdb5f04795e93d6b30bf4.png

 

 

 

Edited by Redbull165
Wrong picture
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Really ? Looks ok to me ...,

00z

9DD79C76-A0A2-4924-93B1-EF70FB9F2FB3.thumb.png.13dff4effb9c90584c44255fcbe7f686.png

06z

3DCEB47E-C0F6-4F65-A2F1-06A32B1BDAAB.thumb.png.809c3f07c67167592a10abac6c8b11ad.png

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO extended is unavailable at the moment down to the current partial shut down of US government. It's not known at this stage when the part of the NOAA website it updates on will return.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Nothing from the anomalies to give any hope in the 2 week time frame, see for yourselves, see below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Neither of the above shows heights or ridging in a good place to bring any deep cold.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Nor does either the 6-10 or 8-14 NOAA show anything to help deep cold arrive over the UK

If the idea I floated some days ago about the 30mb 'spike' then even the mean charts really should be showing some shifting towards more favourable patterns but they are not. As to the GFS out to 384 hours, either version and there is nothing to me, so far, that suggests any reaction to this in any meaningful way.

So the title of the thread says it all really

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Nothing from the anomalies to give any hope in the 2 week time frame, see for yourselves, see below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Neither of the above shows heights or ridging in a good place to bring any deep cold.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Nor does either the 6-10 or 8-14 NOAA show anything to help deep cold arrive over the UK

If the idea I floated some days ago about the 30mb 'spike' then even the mean charts really should be showing some shifting towards more favourable patterns but they are not. As to the GFS out to 384 hours, either version and there is nothing to me, so far, that suggests any reaction to this in any meaningful way.

So the title of the thread says it all really

They look like chalk and cheese to me John?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Undercutting lows pile into SW Russia producing winter storms yesterday. This picture below from Sochi ( this will what Scarborough will look like this time next week !)

C

49181221_2417173941839026_9090843523787259904_n.jpg

Same system delivered this huge amount of snowfall in the Turkish Black Sea Region.

C

48428316_2417639015125852_2643478063458811904_n.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

They look like chalk and cheese to me John?

 

I've just looked at the 6-10 day anomaly and if you transpose the ridges and troughs then it is spot on!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

I've just looked at the 6-10 day anomaly and if you transpose the ridges and troughs then it is spot on!

Well im just comparing the charts you posted , GFS has the high centred over France, EC has the high centred between Scotland and Scandy..?

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