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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted (edited)

Wow icon, maybe the much colder air is arriving much earlier than met office predict, they still going for mid month, icon has it nearly here in a week,, confusing or what, credibility of ecm gfs through the toilet if this is correct. Ukmo earlier yesterday was close to icon showing too

Edited by SLEETY
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The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted
3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Wow icon, maybe the much colder air is arriving much earlier than met office predict, they still going for mid month, icon has it nearly here in a week,, confusing or what, credibility of ecm gfs through the toilet if this is correct. Ukmo earlier yesterday was close to icon showing too

ICON was the top performing model by a mile for the spring easterlies and the summer heatwave. It's a fantastic high resolution model since it was released and replaced DWD.

Again please!

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted
19 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

UKMO 120 hrs

UW120-21.GIF?27-04

Similar evolution to ICON. Definitely on an improving trend here for cold.

Could be a massive victory for Ukmo, icon. Gfs always useless in these setups I notice. Ecm been poor for ages too, a lot of its recent operationals this winter have been warm outliers

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The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This would indeed be a coup for the ICON ....

Top, top model in my opinion. This would be the 4th "coup" in a row. And it only became operational 2 years a go. I think it's a superb model second only to the ECM in Europe. Meteociel even have a dedicated 3d version now.

Let's hope it's on the ball again.

 

Edited by The Eagle
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

Icon verification stats anyone? 

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Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Posted (edited)

Agree with Eagle on this one. The Icon all too readily gets laughed off. But I remember vividly how good it was in the run up to the later winter cold spell we had. It didn’t waver whilst pretty much all else did. I’m not saying it’s right this time but with the UKMO backing its evolution as well, certainly not to be dismissed.

Worth noting as well GEFS an improvement, with more going for mid term ridging and some decent looking charts appearing later again in FI.

9E6136F8-6A05-4E73-83B1-244B1D908B0F.thumb.png.f2f8539580cc518af5058b236a0924c5.png

F0354349-29F4-4E9C-8BAC-FAAF09BE3807.thumb.png.47db8bf961c6380cb6a50ab933b70490.png

B99C935D-73CF-4FB1-B392-7B849819006C.thumb.png.51e4845c0ebd65917474e7e2ada70e74.png

Also a notable appetite to start sprinkling a few of these over central west Europe at the end of week2

2A434B5B-DD8C-4D45-AA99-73D042924A79.thumb.jpeg.52dc470564977e16e53590a665fb311c.jpeg

Edited by s4lancia
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Minnizi Contributor

Minnizi

Posted
  • Location: Bromborough WIRRAL
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold, hot sunny summer's and autumn storms
  • Location: Bromborough WIRRAL
Posted
5 hours ago, Stonethecrows said:

I find it very odd that even tho there are many weeks of winter still to go, three distinct camps have become firmly entrenched in here this last week or so. We've got the it's only a matter of time til the blockbuster charts emerge clan, the let's repeat ourselves over and over how dross the current output is folk and the winter is over brigade. Who'd have thought the hunt for cold could be so divisive, makes it so difficult for the layperson to understand.

Im one of the layperson's so maybe its not my place to say. I do see alot of panic ( maybe to strong a word)that were not going to get anything of cold and i know fr9m following posts from last winter that ssw's dont always deliver. But i also remember that the models couldn't get to grips with the effects of the ssw till much closer to the cold spell we had. Now if im reading right from here the ssw is still happening? So would the models show anything yet? And even if they were, past say t144 isnt gospel anyway 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Chasing cold in the uk can be very frustrating but also when it happens great fun because it’s normal here. The frustration is compounded at the moment because at t144 we see a chart like this and it keeps getting flattered but I honestly believe that we will start to see runs that don’t flatten. This could be one?

62F7536F-087F-447D-A0AA-E0770770200C.png

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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted

ECM big improvement at 144 note cold air to North East pushing south icon could be correct after all. 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

Someone was looking for -8 the other day. If the high holds then rather than a small blob and a slither down the ne  loads could be under it

CD9B359E-D331-4D5F-9FEF-83FBA53394EC.png

Edited by That ECM
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

I trust the ECM will trigger some interest this morning? 

ECM1-192 (2).gif

ECM0-192.gif

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

I trust the ECM will trigger some interest this morning? 

ECM1-192 (2).gif

ECM0-192.gif

Developing easterly?

We all know the models tend to overplay energy coming in from the west at this range. Nice to see some lower heights in the med as well.

Perhaps the start of something.....

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bazookabob Community Regular

bazookabob

Posted
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Snow, Thunder
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

Blimey, looking good all of a sudden this morning. Must be the post-Christmas resumption of them transatlantic balloon data flights or whatever it is lol! ? 

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Tom Quintavalle Maestro

Tom Quintavalle

Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I trust the ECM will trigger some interest this morning? 

ECM1-192 (2).gif

ECM0-192.gif

Well it did at 120, 144 and 168, until too much energy around S.Greenland at t192 and t216 (but that's a long way off), wiped the smile from my face!! Very interesting, nevertheless. Still way too early in Winter, to get despondent!!

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

I don’t know what you are seeing but that ridge has been toppling on every run cross-model. As it slides SE there is a possibility of colder uppers clipping the East/NE, transient at best. Then the Atlantic will push in! Anyone believe that there is a high chance that will go any other way?

Basically all models are showing that, including the  UKMO.

 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
2 minutes ago, IDO said:

I don’t know what you are seeing but that ridge has been toppling on every run cross-model. As it slides SE there is a possibility of colder uppers clipping the East/NE, transient at best. Then the Atlantic will push in! Anyone believe that there is a high chance that will go any other way?

Basically all models are showing that, including the  UKMO.

 

Yes the energy around the tip of Greenland is the problem . hopefully today will see a change but I think that's still a case of if and when imo

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, IDO said:

I don’t know what you are seeing but that ridge has been toppling on every run cross-model. As it slides SE there is a possibility of colder uppers clipping the East/NE, transient at best. Then the Atlantic will push in! Anyone believe that there is a high chance that will go any other way?

Basically all models are showing that, including the  UKMO.

 

Yep, me. Toppling se? Not on this run imo. I like you, can not be sure which way it will go but dismiss this as a possibility is strange imo. Take a little less energy coming from the nw and this would further help. 

CA8F5E60-C462-486E-AD33-3E18439600DF.png

Edited by That ECM
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Minnizi Contributor

Minnizi

Posted
  • Location: Bromborough WIRRAL
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold, hot sunny summer's and autumn storms
  • Location: Bromborough WIRRAL
Posted
5 hours ago, stormcloud said:

Hope you guys don’t mind me posting here, or maybe you could direct me to the right place.  I try and follow as best I can, mainly because I’m a horse owner with a bit of land and wet weather can make or break a winter for me.  Right now my land is an absolute bog and I’d just like to know if we are expecting anymore very wet weather like we’ve had recently or is there.a chance that land might be able to dry up a little.  Any info would be much appreciated as I can then choose whether to move horses for a spell.  Once again, really sorry if I’ve posted in the wrong place.  Thanks! (I’m in East Yorkshire)

There's nothing showing till next fri. But that looks pretty wet/heavy But from an ex groom id dont think your land will dry out enough especially if its already like a bog, were your gate is will be a mess but whats left on the field? If its already patchy id move them, especially  with this mild damp air and no cold to freeze the mud. Im not an expert on weather but i was an expert of getting stuck in muddy fields 

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
Posted

ECM seems to be a halfway house between a cold camp and the milder GFS. It is by no means wonderful but would only need a slight tweak to get it on track. That Euro high has cold air trapped under its clear core, if it begins to ripple back northwest, watch for gradual transformation to icy conditions as already hinted in southeast England. 

I can say that the Pacific is losing vigour in the past week and is going dormant to some extent, that probably signals a retrograde episode ahead. We basically need all upper level features to buckle and shift back west a few degrees then this nightmare will turn rosy. 

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted

Undercutting lows pile into SW Russia producing winter storms yesterday. This picture below from Sochi ( this will what Scarborough will look like this time next week !)

C

49181221_2417173941839026_9090843523787259904_n.jpg

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

UKMO and ICON the pick of the bunch this morning. The GFS having none of it though. The ECM is not as good as the UKMO and ICON but much better than the GFS. Is the tide beginning to turn???? 

Screenshot_20181227-071453.png

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
12 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Yep, me. Toppling se? Not on this run imo. I like you, can not be sure which way it will go but dismiss this as a possibility is strange imo. Take a little less energy coming from the nw and this would further help. 

CA8F5E60-C462-486E-AD33-3E18439600DF.png

I agree that as per usual the GFS op is too progressive, even though supported by its Control. It is like a dog with a bone when it spots a change, especially Atlantic driven ones!

The GEFS are gradually following the op with this scenario but there remains a cluster that maintains the UK high for a few more days. None after D10 offer any blocking favouring the UK.

From around T168 a QTR is possible or at least some reaction to the SSW so that ridge coincides with that timing, may if we get lucky, flip to something better. At the moment even that ECM at D10 (for what that is worth) does not look like "potential" as there is no downstream trough to send energy to pump the slowly falling ridge up. 

Just my opinion and hoping like many that the upstream continues to slow down and enable something better from that MLB.

D11 GEFS: gens_panel_xwt3.png

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