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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

For what it's worth amidst the gloom on this thread at the moment, I don't see a change in the prognosis. High amplitude MJO forcing within a Nino atmospheric envelope, impact of the next +EAMT, impact of pressure on the vortex (and increasingly likely split) all suggest that high lat blocking is coming. We are stuck in no man's land at present because the last tropical momentum spike didn't quite push the pattern into a favourable position (and oh how I wish it had done so....) and the resultant UK high pressure for me in the SW is bringing double figure day temps and mild nights at present.... - but the change is coming.

Timing is becoming a frustration. Impact of the SSW has been put back a few days (not the first time we have seen trends take longer than desired/expected to occur) and given approx. 7-10 day lag impacts from the EAMT surge this equates to middle of week 1 of Jan. So things are now operating a bit behind the expected New Year turn, and we are seeing much more emphasis on a week 2 transition.

Patience. Week 2 Jan for an event that might have significance for the rest of the month is something worth waiting for (provided some cold air bottles up out east) and with another Aleutian low in the wings and blocking set to hit the North Atlantic we have a tropospheric signal for yet more squeeze on the vortex in time for February impacts.

There is nothing grim about the setup at present...apart from the frustration of a few days' delay and the inability of NWP at long range to pick up on what is coming. I had thought some good charts would have been visible several days ago. We are still waiting. But that wait has to end soon.

 

Thanks Catacol. I’ve got to admit to be properly  surprised at the current chart output, especially with the initial warming well underway and the zonal wind drop off. Throw in that incredibly amplified MJO chart (in P6/7 as well) and you really would’ve thought, yes the usual default dross mixed in. But surely a plethora of wonderful eye candy charts in FI by now . I just find it really strange.

Any thoughts on why that might be?

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Its post so good you had to make it 15 times!

Well he said 15 days so it's one post for each day.  

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
2 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Well he said 15 days so it's one post for each day.  

Anybody just joining from the 12Zs will look at the post count think there has been an amazing pub run!

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

2013 and 2010, before that 1996

First week of Jan 1997 too. 

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
4 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Anybody just joining from the 12Zs will look at the post count think there has been an amazing pub run!

Head is off the keyboard now

 

Lightened the place up a bit anyway

 

Sorry guys and gals.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
17 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

Weak high pressure over Scandinavia at 192 on the FV3 but gets shoved south pretty quickly.

I can't post any charts right now but FV3 looking a lot better this evening, hopefully a sign of things to come. Also the strat is totally destroyed, anyway something to look forward in the next few days of output. 

And the missing flight data issues should have been resolved now that Chrimbo is over..

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
51 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps clusters post day 10 can be summed up 

a) like the gfs op 18z 67%

b) failing to get the upper trough past the meridian (and probably taking its lead from the strat picture). 33%

I thought it was interesting how both clusters were considered to represent a NAO minus situation after D12... 

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Posted
  • Location: Ilminster, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thundersnow
  • Location: Ilminster, Somerset

It's all I need to control my language!

 

Blizzards everywhere........

 

Oh no it's I need to control my language!!

 

2ft of powder snow incoming!!

 

Maybe not................we've had at least 7 pages of this! Let's just stop the sniping!! It's not going to make any difference to the weather! 

Children should be seen and not heard! Pipe down and just listen to the more knowledgeable people on here. No need for half of the comments.

Probably this one too, but I'm ready to leave this group, even though I never contribute as I'm nowhere near as good as most in here but it's getting beyond a joke!!

 

Sorry mods

 

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
5 minutes ago, Ashme said:

It's all I need to control my language!

 

Blizzards everywhere........

 

Oh no it's I need to control my language!!

 

2ft of powder snow incoming!!

 

Maybe not................we've had at least 7 pages of this! Let's just stop the sniping!! It's not going to make any difference to the weather! 

Children should be seen and not heard! Pipe down and just listen to the more knowledgeable people on here. No need for half of the comments.

Probably this one too, but I'm ready to leave this group, even though I never contribute as I'm nowhere near as good as most in here but it's getting beyond a joke!!

 

Sorry mods

 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
33 minutes ago, swilliam said:

This is a forecast nearly 15 days away

Sorry didn't quite catch what you said.,could you repeat it again please

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
28 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Thanks Catacol. I’ve got to admit to be properly  surprised at the current chart output, especially with the initial warming well underway and the zonal wind drop off. Throw in that incredibly amplified MJO chart (in P6/7 as well) and you really would’ve thought, yes the usual default dross mixed in. But surely a plethora of wonderful eye candy charts in FI by now . I just find it really strange.

Any thoughts on why that might be?

Only really that timing has been pushed back a bit, and NWP is poor at picking up substantive changes like this. I think once it picks up on the signal the shift in output will be sudden and swift. +NAO conditions on the back of these forcings would make no sense at all, assuming the forcings stay in place.

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I find it very odd that even tho there are many weeks of winter still to go, three distinct camps have become firmly entrenched in here this last week or so. We've got the it's only a matter of time til the blockbuster charts emerge clan, the let's repeat ourselves over and over how dross the current output is folk and the winter is over brigade. Who'd have thought the hunt for cold could be so divisive, makes it so difficult for the layperson to understand.

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So it looks like we are on track for a cold LP from the Atlantic, more rain and a small chance of some kind of northerly pull.

Get your act together SSW!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Pattern getting very zonal on tonights output, but history does show us that changes can occur in more days if the upper pattern shifts. Some models are likely overdoing it though and equally are likely too cold over E.USA, which unsurprisingly has been a little pared back today.

With that said I'm not a fan of these messy splits with little vortexes rotating around, very rarely do you get any decent cold when that happens as it tends to lead to too much Atlantic influence, a nice clean split is usually preferable, this has too many little Eddie's shearing off to be of much use yet. 

Even so, as others have said, we would be mega unlucky to get nothing from this, everything looks just about right.

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Hope you guys don’t mind me posting here, or maybe you could direct me to the right place.  I try and follow as best I can, mainly because I’m a horse owner with a bit of land and wet weather can make or break a winter for me.  Right now my land is an absolute bog and I’d just like to know if we are expecting anymore very wet weather like we’ve had recently or is there.a chance that land might be able to dry up a little.  Any info would be much appreciated as I can then choose whether to move horses for a spell.  Once again, really sorry if I’ve posted in the wrong place.  Thanks! (I’m in East Yorkshire)

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Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside
27 minutes ago, stormcloud said:

Hope you guys don’t mind me posting here, or maybe you could direct me to the right place.  I try and follow as best I can, mainly because I’m a horse owner with a bit of land and wet weather can make or break a winter for me.  Right now my land is an absolute bog and I’d just like to know if we are expecting anymore very wet weather like we’ve had recently or is there.a chance that land might be able to dry up a little.  Any info would be much appreciated as I can then choose whether to move horses for a spell.  Once again, really sorry if I’ve posted in the wrong place.  Thanks! (I’m in East Yorkshire)

Probably is the wrong section anyhow it looks drier in the coming days under the influence of high pressure.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, evans1892 said:

Probably is the wrong section anyhow it looks drier in the coming days under the influence of high pressure.

It could be very wet for the North again though in the D10-15 range if the GFS / GEFS are right, whether its cold or mild zonality, its likely to be wet zonality.

 

1 hour ago, stormcloud said:

Hope you guys don’t mind me posting here, or maybe you could direct me to the right place.  I try and follow as best I can, mainly because I’m a horse owner with a bit of land and wet weather can make or break a winter for me.  Right now my land is an absolute bog and I’d just like to know if we are expecting anymore very wet weather like we’ve had recently or is there.a chance that land might be able to dry up a little.  Any info would be much appreciated as I can then choose whether to move horses for a spell.  Once again, really sorry if I’ve posted in the wrong place.  Thanks! (I’m in East Yorkshire)

 

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