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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

2013 and 2010, before that 1996

Right you are, I remember 2013 now, so that will be 6 years. Thanks for reminding me I seriously thought it had been longer, feels like ages.

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

The lack of sharpening of the trough out of N America D6-D7 has been perplexing for a time when there’s increasingly strong agreement that the MJO will gain significant amplitude.

Ironically ECM, which has the least amplified MJO - and is probably  behind the curve in that respect as it’s long had a low bias in the Pacific phase - is the one that’s tried for a trough disruption this eve, albeit not a very effective one.

 

2nd week Jan, even with a flushing down of zonal winds, the flatness of the last two GFS runs is truly madness when the MJO is looking so active. The 06z was more like it; a war between two competing forces with the battlefront shifting about, then on D16 signs of the zonal winds relenting as the reversal makes itself felt.

Couldn’t agree more. If there was ever a time for the GFS not to revert to default flat zonal, this is probably it. Maybe they’ve shut the servers down in line with the US  government and left it on default mode 1-9-8-9 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The gefs also looking to push that Atlantic trough through into nw Europe  post day 10 ...... I guess that fits in with Exeter’s musings ......

safe to say that there is currently no sign of a QTR downwelling ........that’s not to say that the models won’t make more of this amplification currently being played with  days 6/9. However, finding a way to stop this surge of very low heights into the n Atlantic days 8/11 seems pretty tough 

so we are left with the two week downwelling wave which, if it happens, should arrive beyond the 12th ..... the idea would be that those purples will quickly lighten to blues and then you will see some greens and yellows appearing .....

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The GEFS 18z can be summed up as follows.

Absolutely dyer,

Sorry to be pedantic - teacher so I can't help it - but it's dire, not dyre. That's Danny 

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

These heights to our south are going to be hard to shift and until we do there is zero chance of anything resembling deep cold. I still think the only exit route is via a period of zonal. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
32 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

FI I know, but this is a disgusting chart for Jan- jet running uniformly around the hemisphere. That's never a good sign

image.thumb.png.3ef8920c1704b9ebd7483a9bb2a25919.png

Surely that means thst the Strat forecasts (and charts) of last couple of weeks are/were .....erm......wrong!?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, Bristle boy said:

Surely that means thst the Strat forecasts (and charts) of last couple of weeks are/were .....erm......wrong!?

Nope - the strat charts generally take quiet a while to imprint into the trop (if they do).   sometimes you get a quick response as a wave downwell inmediately at speed ......

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
1 minute ago, Jason M said:

These heights to our south are going to be hard to shift and until we do there is zero chance of anything resembling deep cold. I still think the only exit route is via a period of zonal. 

 

Yep! They've been there for last 4/5 weeks in 'real time'. Spanish meto Winter LRF was for mainly dry&settled.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Bristle boy said:

Surely that means thst the Strat forecasts (and charts) of last couple of weeks are/were .....erm......wrong!?

Not necessarily, the strat charts are still favourable in the top half of the strat on the 18z, either the trop isn;t responding or it would have done if the run went further.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Just now, Bristle boy said:

Surely that means thst the Strat forecasts (and charts) of last couple of weeks are/were .....erm......wrong!?

I think the strat forecasts are not bad it's just that they're showing little or no impact on the trop model output.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The GEFS 18z can be summed up as follows.

Absolutely dyer,

Hardly brilliant I agree, but I fancied there was a tad more of an appetite for ridging. 1 and 19 giving it their all to give us something of note, but you sort of felt the ridge was left looking around, saying, come on, I’m doing my best here, could do with a little help!

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Nope - the strat charts generally take quiet a while to imprint into the trop (if they do).   sometimes you get a quick response as a wave downwell inmediately at speed ......

Yes i've began to understand that but surely the very organised vortex as highlighted in Crewe's post hints at v little trop changes anytime soon

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Surely that means thst the Strat forecasts (and charts) of last couple of weeks are/were .....erm......wrong!?

This is a forecast nearly 15 days away

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
1 minute ago, swilliam said:

This is a forecast nearly 15 days away

Exactly. But if it was showing raging Easterlies and snow it wouldnt be dismissed.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, swilliam said:

This is a forecast nearly 15 days away

I think he heard u the 5th time

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Looks like it's a forecast for nearly 15 days away.

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

How many times do you need to say that @swilliam

Edited by matt111
Mentioned wrong user. Autocorrect problems too
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Just now, swilliam said:

This is a forecast nearly 15 days away

If you carry on posting like this, it'll only be 2 days away...

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

@swilliam take your head off the keyboard and put the wine away immediately! 

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