Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[karyo]

I totally understand people's disappointment. The charts would have been a bit easier to accept if we had some cold and snow already but we clearly haven't and the wait continues.

[MR EXTREMES]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Don’t forget potential too!

Patience and potential may sum up winter 18/19!

Anyway, the NWP is largely dreadful.  Jan 15th remains the date though.

Well 15th January is my birthday can't see anything happening then.

As the stratosphere has split the vortex but blocking not able to get anywhere that would benefit us.

In fact it looks to benefit the local wild life and daffodils.

 

[Froze were the Days]

The winter of the 3 P's ..Potential, Patience and Pee'd off

Ecm showed some potential yesterday and numerous times post day 10 earlier this month ...have we got anywhere?...answer no.

Makes me smirk now the date 15th January is etched in everybody's heads, I wonder how realistically it will be that we'll get cold conditions around that date?

Edited December 26, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[ChezWeather]

I keep feeling disappointed with the models but then i remember last winter, it took a while for us get the Easterly, but it happened eventually and boy did it deliver 

[karlos1983]

13 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Means absolutely nothing , talk all day long about a SSW , ABC or whatever you want but it doesn't guarantee snow or cold.

The biggest indicator anyone on any weather forum can use is the Met outlook , as it stands there isn't anything concrete from the Met

Ok that’s fine, just make sure you pop back in come mid Jan and say  I got it wrong  

the operationals will flip and indeed flop now for a number of days! If you don’t think that’s the case fair enough.. but I’m utterly convinced that’s exactly what’s going to happen. 

Edited December 26, 2018 by karlos1983

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

I keep feeling disappointed with the models but then i remember last winter, it took a while for us get the Easterly, but it happened eventually and boy did it deliver 

Injury time winner...will lightning strike twice if we're struggling come February? I doubt it.

[carinthian]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

The winter of the 3 P's ..Potential, Patience and Pee'd off

Ecm showed some potential yesterday and numerous times post day 10 earlier this month ...have we got anywhere?...answer no.

The winter so far of the 3 M's.. Mild, Mud and Miserable.. 

C

[Mokidugway]

Just now, carinthian said:

The winter so far of the 3 M's.. Mild, Mud and Miserable.. 

C

And one big S@@@

[Banbury]

16 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Don’t forget potential too!

Patience and potential may sum up winter 18/19!

Anyway, the NWP is largely dreadful.  Jan 15th remains the date though.

Why Jan 15th ?

[Froze were the Days]

Just now, Banbury said:

Why Jan 15th ?

Cause the good ol' MetO 30 dayer forecast says from 'mid-month' (as if they've been that accurate this late Autumn/Winter).

[sundog]

Bet as Soon as the decorations are down the models will improve regards  to cold. 

[Banbury]

9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Ok that’s fine, just make sure you pop back in come mid Jan and say  I got it wrong  

the operationals will flip and indeed flop now for a number of days! If you don’t think that’s the case fair enough.. but I’m utterly convinced that’s exactly what’s going to happen. 

I haven't got anything wrong? I cant see any charts for mid Jan, I am commenting on what I currently see. 

[bazookabob]

23 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Don’t forget potential too!

Patience and potential may sum up winter 18/19!

Anyway, the NWP is largely dreadful.  Jan 15th remains the date though.

I've been away a couple of days... I take it January 7th is no longer when we should be expecting the big freeze? (I saw that date mentioned by a few on here on Christmas eve). It does all seem to be getting delayed bit by bit lol! 

[Duane S.]

Yep, today’s chart output pretty pants all in all.

The emerging pressure build in GL could and should have been quite interesting but whilst we have both a fairly strong SW-NE flow and high pressure centred below us with absolutely no supporting lower pressure below, it is difficult to see how any Atlantic ridging isn’t going to just get unceremoniously flattened each time. 

It really does seem like, right now, the quickest route to cold (and that is 10 day+) is high pressure build ‘in round the back’ and into Western GL with more of a NW -SE jet. Would probably mean a potentially wet and stormy interim period beforehand though. 

That is of course not to totally discount the models are reading this all totally wrong. The strat zonal winds are slowing down at a great rate of knots (little effect on the near term, I know) and the MJO is a week from going into amplified P6, which ought to improve effectiveness of Atlantic ridging. There’s a lot of big and non-standard forces at work here. Like I say, perhaps they are just reading it all wrong and will flip tomorrow. Just to confirm, I still am talking about the 10 day mark here. I see very little hope before that point.

Its not called the rollercoaster for nothing on here. Maybe this is the dip before a massive big climb over the next few days. I remain optimistic winter is on the way. Just not quite yet.

The only saving grace for me, I thought I had chosen the worst week to go to the lower Western Alps skiing (saved only by a good December base snowfall), it is now looking like next week will be worse, with no snow as well.

[Iceaxecrampon]

[Northern Sky]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Cause the good ol' MetO 30 dayer forecast says from 'mid-month' (as if they've been that accurate this late Autumn/Winter).

And also it's what the long range/teleconnections posters have been saying for the last few weeks. It's over twenty days away, it's extremely unlikely that the 10 day chart of the ECM will verify exactly as it is but even if it did there would still be a further 10 days for things to change. If things turn out anything like expected then we should start to see the building blocks of a cold spell come into range over the next week to 10 days. If in 10 days we are in the same position as now then fair enough we can start worrying.

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Cause the good ol' MetO 30 dayer forecast says from 'mid-month' (as if they've been that accurate this late Autumn/Winter).

I'd be very wary pinning my hopes on there forcasts regarding any specific time!!! Any new members should be careful not to get there hopes up esp with a SSW and where the dice fall.tbh during SSW or not we should see at least s cold spell imo

Edited December 26, 2018 by swfc

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I haven't got anything wrong? I cant see any charts for mid Jan, I am commenting on what I currently see. 

Calm down, just said what’s been well documented over the last god knows how many days. This isn’t your standard winter setup right now, if it was I’d agree with what your saying. I’m saying we WILL see charts you dream of in the next days start to roll out.. followed probably by oh my god winters over charts the very next run (if you’re that way inclined). Fact remains we are potentially on the cusp of something amazing. Disagree with that then that’s fine by me... move on. 

Edited December 26, 2018 by karlos1983

[Derecho]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Yet again too much energy in the darn Atlantic..

I just can't understand the sheer volume of these lows TBH, there is no strong ENSO, no raging PV, zonal winds are dropping away, yet they just seemingly never end..

Anyone have any theories as to why they keep coming?

Climate change 

I think its a problem with the SST's, something which the vast majority overlook. Here is an anomaly profile in the North Atlantic.

Notice the region in the box, this has actually shown a cooling trend from the 19th century to the present day. In fact during 2015 this region was record breakingly cold in a record breakingly warm year. So why is this relevant for the UK?

Well this SST pattern coincides with an enhanced SST gradient which causes deeper Atlantic low pressure systems. If we don't have a Scandi high then this very often coincides with mild westerlies. This argument is further reinforced when looking at the NAO swings of the last decade of so. Lets have a look at the SST anomalies of positive NAO winters:

 2016/17

 2015/16

 2014/15

 2013/14

 2011/12

See a pattern? Lets look at negative NAO winters

 2009/10

 Dec 2010

 2012/13

The problem is that the area highlighted is one of the regions which under a warming climate won't actually see any increases in temperature. This is because under a warming climate the AMOC is forecast to slow down. These persistently positive NAOs therefore may become more persistent in the future. Can other signals overcome this? Yes here are 3 IMO:

1) Extreme ENSO events - La Nina winters can promote more in the way of -NAOs during winter, El Nino events more often have lower SLP in the Azores later on in winter. Have to get rid of the Euroslug as well though.

2) The AMOC really weakens - Suggested as a trigger for the 2009/10 winter

3) A major SSW event to overcome the influence of this cold blob. March 2018 was enough to overcome this. Unfavourable SST patten but still a -NAO to end the winter.

 2017/18

It really surprises me how often this factor is overlooked. If this SSW fails we may have to wait late in the winter for another shot IMO. Winters such as those from 2013-2017 will become more frequent under a warming climate but this will also depend on the future of SSW's and whether the AMOC slows down to the extent we saw in 2009/10.

This is why I think we are seeing charts such as these in the medium range.

Either way the SSW had better hurry up. Mid Dec..., early January.... mid January...

A pattern also developing there.

Edited December 26, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Frosty.]

Looking at the latest models, changes are likely to be very slow with just variations on the generally anticyclonic theme..the longer term wintry signal is still out of range of the gfs so it's a case of being patient and hoping for BIG changes once we get into early January when mid Jan will be in range..hopefully some stonking output to look forward to by then!!!!.

Edited December 26, 2018 by Frosty.

[shotski]

Extended EPS look pretty naff to me out to 9th Jan, didn’t bother looking any further. Looks flat & zonal unfortunately

[markw2680]

Trouble is it’s now starting to feel like ages since we had some decent consistent charts to look at let alone get closer, so far it’s all very very poo, the patience is already wearing thin for quite a few including myself. Why is it so hard to get some proper winter weather in this part of the world.

oh it’s that big mass of water to our west that is our main problem.

oh well there’s always feb to look forward too  

seriously now I’m sure there will be a sudden flip in our charts soon... there has to be hasn’t there??

[karlos1983]

Here’s are starting point.....

take shannon and raise her a Monkey, it’s fair to say the models (all of them) are going to struggle for the foreseeable. 

Will there be a QTR, won’t there? Where will high pressure setup shop Over the pole, where or how will cold air advect and in which direction! Give them a break

very boring all this  model watch init.....errrr NO

Edited December 26, 2018 by karlos1983

[Chesil View]

People understandably somewhat deflated and bore with the output at the moment. The only thing I would caution in that regard is that taking GFS  or ECM as gospel at 10 or 16 days is as silly as me saying winter is going to start tomorrow. Having studied practically every cold/snowy spell and starts of great winters of the last 140 odd years in some detail. All I would say is that the synoptics that brought many of them changed from very unpromising set ups to stellar in matter of two or three days. 

My personal feeling at the moment is FI is actually about 120 to144 ATM. Take anything beyond that with a decent pinch of salt.

Edited December 26, 2018 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Dancerwithwings]

2 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

And also it's what the long range/teleconnections posters have been saying for the last few weeks. It's over twenty days away, it's extremely unlikely that the 10 day chart of the ECM will verify exactly as it is but even if it did there would still be a further 10 days for things to change. If things turn out anything like expected then we should start to see the building blocks of a cold spell come into range over the next week to 10 days. If in 10 days we are in the same position as now then fair enough we can start worrying.

Thank god someone is talking sense, I’ve always thought the downward effects of SSW can take several weeks to show itself (data) so why peeps here keep on looking at the models (240h to 300h +) and expecting is beyond me.